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35 result(s) for "Vis, Marc"
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Assessing the degree of detail of temperature-based snow routines for runoff modelling in mountainous areas in central Europe
Snow processes are a key component of the water cycle in mountainous areas as well as in many areas of the mid and high latitudes of the Earth. The complexity of these processes, coupled with the limited data available on them, has led to the development of different modelling approaches aimed at improving our understanding of these processes and supporting decision-making and management practices. Physically based approaches, such as the energy balance method, provide the best representation of snow processes, but limitations in data availability in many situations constrain their applicability in favour of more straightforward approaches. Indeed, the comparatively simple temperature-index method has become the most widely used modelling approach for representing snowpack processes in rainfall-runoff modelling, with different variants of this method implemented across many models. Nevertheless, the decisions on the most suitable degree of detail of the model are in many cases not adequately assessed for a given application. In this study we assessed the suitability of a number of formulations of different components of the simple temperature-index method for rainfall-runoff modelling in mountainous areas of central Europe by using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) bucket-type model. To this end, we reviewed the most widely used formulations of different components of temperature-based snow routines from different rainfall-runoff models and proposed a series of modifications to the default structure of the HBV model. We narrowed the choice of alternative formulations to those that provide a simple conceptualisation of the described processes in order to constrain parameter and model uncertainty. We analysed a total of 64 alternative snow routine structures over 54 catchments using a split-sample test. Overall, the most valuable modifications to the standard structure of the HBV snow routine were (a) using an exponential snowmelt function coupled with no refreezing and (b) computing melt rates with a seasonally variable degree-day factor. Our results also demonstrated that increasing the degree of detail of the temperature-based snow routines in rainfall-runoff models did not necessarily lead to an improved model performance per se. Instead, performing an analysis on which processes are to be included, and to which degree of detail, for a given model and application is a better approach to obtain more reliable and robust results.
Expansion and contraction of the flowing stream network alter hillslope flowpath lengths and the shape of the travel time distribution
Flowing stream networks dynamically extend and retract, both seasonally and in response to precipitation events. These network dynamics can dramatically alter the drainage density and thus the length of subsurface flow pathways to flowing streams. We mapped flowing stream networks in a small Swiss headwater catchment during different wetness conditions and estimated their effects on the distribution of travel times to the catchment outlet. For each point in the catchment, we determined the subsurface transport distance to the flowing stream based on the surface topography and determined the surface transport distance along the flowing stream to the outlet. We combined the distributions of these travel distances with assumed surface and subsurface flow velocities to estimate the distribution of travel times to the outlet. These calculations show that the extension and retraction of the stream network can substantially change the mean travel time and the shape of the travel time distribution. During wet conditions with a fully extended flowing stream network, the travel time distribution was strongly skewed to short travel times, but as the network retracted during dry conditions, the distribution of the travel times became more uniform. Stream network dynamics are widely ignored in catchment models, but our results show that they need to be taken into account when modeling solute transport and interpreting travel time distributions.
Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model
Glaciers play an important role in high-mountain hydrology. While changing glacier areas are considered of highest importance for the understanding of future changes in runoff, glaciers are often only poorly represented in hydrological models. Most importantly, the direct coupling between the simulated glacier mass balances and changing glacier areas needs feasible solutions. The use of a complex glacier model is often not possible due to data and computational limitations. The Δh parameterization is a simple approach to consider the spatial variation of glacier thickness and area changes. Here, we describe a conceptual implementation of the Δh parameterization in the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light, which also allows for the representation of glacier advance phases and for comparison between the different versions of the implementation. The coupled glacio-hydrological simulation approach, which could also be implemented in many other semi-distributed hydrological models, is illustrated based on an example application.
Streamflow characteristics from modeled runoff time series – importance of calibration criteria selection
Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.
The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments
Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975–2004) and future (2071–2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change.
Information content of stream level class data for hydrological model calibration
Citizen science can provide spatially distributed data over large areas, including hydrological data. Stream levels are easier to measure than streamflow and are likely also observed more easily by citizen scientists than streamflow. However, the challenge with crowd based stream level data is that observations are taken at irregular time intervals and with a limited vertical resolution. The latter is especially the case at sites where no staff gauge is available and relative stream levels are observed based on (in)visible features in the stream, such as rocks. In order to assess the potential value of crowd based stream level observations for model calibration, we pretended that stream level observations were available at a limited vertical resolution by transferring streamflow data to stream level classes. A bucket-type hydrological model was calibrated with these hypothetical stream level class data and subsequently evaluated on the observed streamflow records. Our results indicate that stream level data can result in good streamflow simulations, even with a reduced vertical resolution of the observations. Time series of only two stream level classes, e.g. above or below a rock in the stream, were already informative, especially when the class boundary was chosen towards the highest stream levels. There was some added value in using up to five stream level classes, but there was hardly any improvement in model performance when using more level classes. These results are encouraging for citizen science projects and provide a basis for designing observation systems that collect data that are as informative as possible for deriving model based streamflow time series for previously ungauged basins.
Spatial distribution of lion kills determined by the water dependency of prey species
Predation risk from lions (Panthera leo) has been linked to habitat characteristics and availability and traits of prey. We separated the effects of vegetation density and the presence of drinking water by analyzing locations of lion kills in relation to rivers with dense vegetation, which offer good lion stalking opportunities, and artificial water points with low vegetation density. The spatial distribution of lion kills was studied at the Klaserie Private Nature Reserve, South Africa. The distance between 215 lion kills and the nearest water source was analyzed using generalized linear models. Lions selected medium-sized prey species. Lion kills were closer to rivers and to artificial water points than expected by random distribution of the kills. Water that attracted prey, and not the vegetation density in riverine areas, increased predation risk, with kills of buffalo (Syncerus caffer), kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), and wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) as water-dependent prey species. Traits of prey species, including feeding type (food habits), digestion type (ruminant or nonruminant), or body size, did not explain locations of lion kills, and no seasonal patterns in lion kills were apparent. We argue that the cascading impact of lions on local mammal assemblages is spatially heterogeneous.
BioRT‐HBV 1.0: A Biogeochemical Reactive Transport Model at the Watershed Scale
Reactive Transport Models (RTMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting intertwined ecohydrological and biogeochemical processes on land and in rivers. While traditional RTMs have focused primarily on subsurface processes, recent watershed‐scale RTMs have integrated ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions between surface and subsurface. These emergent, watershed‐scale RTMs are often spatially explicit and require extensive data, computational power, and computational expertise. There is however a pressing need to create parsimonious models that require minimal data and are accessible to scientists with limited computational background. To that end, we have developed BioRT‐HBV 1.0, a watershed‐scale, hydro‐biogeochemical RTM that builds upon the widely used, bucket‐type HBV model known for its simplicity and minimal data requirements. BioRT‐HBV uses the conceptual structure and hydrology output of HBV to simulate processes including advective solute transport and biogeochemical reactions that depend on reaction thermodynamics and kinetics. These reactions include, for example, chemical weathering, soil respiration, and nutrient transformation. The model uses time series of weather (air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration) and initial biogeochemical conditions of subsurface water, soils, and rocks as input, and output times series of reaction rates and solute concentrations in subsurface waters and rivers. This paper presents the model structure and governing equations and demonstrates its utility with examples simulating carbon and nitrogen processes in a headwater catchment. As shown in the examples, BioRT‐HBV can be used to illuminate the dynamics of biogeochemical reactions in the invisible, arduous‐to‐measure subsurface, and their influence on the observed stream or river chemistry and solute export. With its parsimonious structure and easy‐to‐use graphical user interface, BioRT‐HBV can be a useful research tool for users without in‐depth computational training. It can additionally serve as an educational tool that promotes pollination of ideas across disciplines and foster a diverse, equal, and inclusive user community. Plain Language Summary Reactive Transport models (RTMs) are essential tools to understand the movement of water, nutrients and other elements from land to rivers and their interactions with each other. Recent watershed scale RTMs, unlike earlier ones that primarily focus on the subsurface processes, have integrated belowground processes and above‐ground dynamics and characteristics including changing weather and vegetation cover. However, these models require large amount of data and are challenging for users with limited computational background. Here we developed BioRT‐HBV 1.0, a parsimonious, watershed‐scale RTM with a graphical user interface that is comparatively easy to learn and use and requires minimal data. BioRT‐HBV can simulate a wide variety of processes like chemical weathering, carbon and nutrient transformation, soil organic carbon decomposition, among others. Here, we introduce the model structure, its governing equations, and examples that demonstrate the use of model in simulating carbon and nitrogen processes. We put forward this model as a potential research and educational tool that can be used by students and researchers from diverse disciplines. Key Points We introduce BioRT‐HBV, a watershed scale reactive transport model that is parsimonious, flexible with reaction network, easy to use and requires minimal data BioRT‐HBV can simulate a variety of user‐defined biogeochemical processes, including carbon and nitrogen processes BioRT‐HBV is open source for any researchers interested in ecohydrological and biogeochemical reactive transport processes
Model Calibration Criteria for Estimating Ecological Flow Characteristics
Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.
Progressive water deficits during multiyear droughts in basins with long hydrological memory in Chile
A decade-long (2010–2020) period with precipitation deficits in central–south Chile (30–41∘ S), the so-called megadrought (MD), has led to streamflow depletions of larger amplitude than expected from precipitation anomalies, indicating an intensification in drought propagation. We analysed the catchment characteristics and runoff mechanisms modulating such intensification by using the CAMELS-CL dataset and simulations from the HBV hydrological model. We compared annual precipitation–runoff (P–R) relationships before and during the MD across 106 basins with varying snow-/rainfall regimes and identified those catchments where drought propagation was intensified. Our results show that catchments' hydrological memory – modulated by snow and groundwater – is a key control of drought propagation. Snow-dominated catchments (30–35∘ S) feature larger groundwater contribution to streamflow than pluvial basins, which we relate to the infiltration of snowmelt over the Western Andean Front. This leads to longer memory in these basins, represented by a significative correlation between autumn streamflow (when snow has already melted) and the precipitation from the preceding year. Hence, under persistent drought conditions, snow-dominated catchments accumulate the effects of precipitation deficits and progressively generate less water, compared with their historical behaviour, notably affecting central Chile, a region with limited water supply and which concentrates most of the country's population and water demands. Finally, we addressed a general question: what is worse – an extreme single-year drought or a persistent moderate drought? In snow-dominated basins, where water provision strongly depends on both the current and previous precipitation seasons, an extreme drought induces larger absolute streamflow deficits; however persistent deficits induce a more intensified propagation of the meteorological drought. Hence, the worst scenario would be an extreme meteorological drought following consecutive years of precipitation below average, as occurred in 2019. In pluvial basins of southern Chile (35–41∘ S), hydrologic memory is still an important factor, but water supply is more strongly dependant on the meteorological conditions of the current year, and therefore an extreme drought would have a higher impact on water supply than a persistent but moderate drought.