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Aim of the present study was to assess the impact of gender on the relationship between long-term mortality and clinical frailty. In an observational, longitudinal study on 10-year mortality, we examined 1284 subjects. The Frailty Staging System was used to assess frailty. The Cox model was employed to assess variables independently associated with survival using a backward stepwise algorithm. To investigate the possible interactions between gender and the selected variables, an extension of the multivariable fractional polynomial algorithm was adopted. Women were more likely to be older, have a higher disability, present with more comorbidities, consume more drugs, be frail and have a higher rate of survival at the follow-up than were men. At the Cox multivariate analysis only age (HR 2.26), female gender (HR 0.43), and number of drugs (HR 1.57) were significant and independent factors associated with all-cause mortality. In the survival analyses, only frailty ( vs no frailty) showed significant interaction with gender (p < 0.001, HR = 1.92). While the presence of frailty reduced the survival rate in women, no effect was observed in men. Importantly, frail women showed higher survival rates than did both frail and no frail men. The main finding of the present study is that gender shapes up the association between frailty and long-term survival rates.

Accurate prognostic evaluation is a key factor in the clinical management of patients affected by severe acute brain injury (ABI) and helps planning focused therapies, better caregiver's support and allocation of resources. Aim of the study was to assess factors independently associated with both the short and long-term outcomes after rehabilitation in patients affected by ABI in the setting of a single Rehabilitation Unit specifically allocated to these patients. In all patients (567) with age ≥ 18 years discharged from the Unit in the period 2006/2015 demographic, etiologic, comorbidity indicators, and descriptors of the disability burden (at hospital admission and discharge) were evaluated as potential prognostic factors of both short-term (4 classes of disability status at discharge) and long-term (mortality) outcomes. A comprehensive analytical method was adopted to combine several tasks. Select the factors with a significant independent association with the outcome, assess the relative weights and the \"stability\" (by bootstrap resampling) of them and estimate the role of the prognostic models in the clinical framework considering \"cost\" and \"benefits\". The generalized ordered logistic model for ordinal dependent variables was used for the short-term outcome while the Cox proportional hazard model was used for the long-term outcome. The final short-term model identified 7 factors that independently account for 37% of the outcome variability as shown by pseudo R2 (pR2) = 0.37. The disability status descriptors show the strongest association since they account for more than 60% of the pR2, followed by age (14.8%), the presence of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy or nasogastric intubation (14.4%), a longer stay in the acute ward (5.9%) and concomitant coronary disease (1.3%). The final multivariable Cox model identified 4 factors that independently account for 52% of the outcome variability (R2 = 0.52). The disability extent and the disability recovered lead the long-term mortality since they account for the 53% of the global R2. The relevant effect of age (42%) is appreciable only after 2 years given the significant interaction with time. A longer stay in the acute ward explains the remaining fraction (5%). Considering 'cost and benefits', the decision curve analysis shows that the clinical benefit achieved by using both prognostic models is greater than the other possible action strategies, namely 'treat all' and 'treat none. Several less obvious characteristics of the prognostic models are appreciated by integrating the results of multiple analytical methods. The comprehensive analytical tool aimed to integrate statistical significance, weight, \"stability\" and clinical \"net\" benefit, gives back a prognostic framework explaining a relevant portion of both outcomes' variability in which the strong association of the disability status with both outcomes is comparable to and followed by a time modulated role of age. Our data do not support a differentiated association of traumatic vs non-traumatic etiology. The results encourage the use of integrated approach to analyze cohort data.

Background: Malnutrition is a frequent condition in the elderly, and is associated with prolonged hospitalization and increased mortality. However, the impacts of malnutrition among elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction have not been clarified yet. Methods and Results: We enrolled 174 patients aged 65 years and over, admitted with the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), who underwent evaluation of nutritional status by Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and evaluation of mortality risk by GRACE Score 2.0. All-cause mortality was the outcome considered for this study. Over a mean follow-up of 24.5 ± 18.2 months, 43 deaths have been registered (24.3%). Non-survivors were more likely to be older, with worse glomerular filtration rate, lower systolic blood pressure, lower albumin and MNA score, higher prevalence of Killip classification III-IV grade, and higher Troponin I levels. Multivariate Cox proportional analysis revealed that GRACE Score and MNA showed a significant and independent impact on mortality, (HR = 1.76, 95%, CI = 1.34–2.32, and HR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.42–0.73, respectively). Moreover, the clinical decision curve revealed a higher clinical net benefit when the MNA was included, compared to the partial models without MNA. Conclusion: Nutritional status is an independent predictor of long-term mortality among elderly patients with AMI. MNA score in elderly patients with AMI may help prognostic stratification and identification of patients with, or at risk of, malnutrition in order to apply interventions to improve nutritional status, and maybe survival in this population.

Understanding how volcanic systems evolve over time is a major challenge due to their complex behaviour and constantly changing conditions. This study explores a novel approach to detecting significant changes in multiparametric signals of volcanic unrest by analysing how different types of data, such as ground deformation, gas emissions, temperature, and earthquakes, interact with each other. Focusing on the Solfatara–Pisciarelli volcano system, which is a more active area in the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Southern Italy), we used two advanced methods to identify critical transitions in the system: one to model the nonlinear relationships between variables, and the other to detect key moments when the system’s behaviour shifts. By including time delays between signals (LAG), we found that our model became much more accurate in identifying these changes. In contrast, models that ignored time lags showed higher uncertainty. The results highlight the importance and effectiveness of using integrated multivariate approaches such as Multivariable Fractional Polynomial Analysis (MFPA) and Global Critical Point Analysis (GCPA) to gain deeper insights into the systemic behaviour of the caldera and its temporal evolution within a complex area like the Campi Flegrei over the selected time period.

Background: Heart Failure (HF), a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, represents a relevant trigger for the development of frailty in the elderly. Inflammation has been reported to play an important role in HF and frailty pathophysiology. Galectin-3 (Gal-3), whose levels increase with aging, exerts a relevant activity in the processes of cardiac inflammation and fibrosis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential of Galectin-3 to serve as a biomarker of frailty in HF patients. Methods: 128 consecutive patients aged 65 and older with the diagnosis of systolic HF underwent a frailty assessment and blood sample collection for serum Gal-3 detection. A multivariable regression analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to identify significant predictors of frailty. Results: Frailty was present in 42.2% of patients. Age: Odds Ratio (OR) = 3.29; 95% Confidence Interval CI (CI) = 1.03–10.55, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale Comorbidity Index (CIRS-CI): OR = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.03–3.32, C-Reactive phase Protein (CRP) OR = 3.73; 95% CI = 1.24–11.22, N-terminal-pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP): OR = 2.39; 95% CI = 1.21–4.72 and Gal-3: OR = 5.64; 95% CI = 1.97–16.22 resulted in being significantly and independently associated with frailty. The DCA demonstrated that the addition of Gal-3 in the prognostic model resulted in an improved clinical ‘net’ benefit. Conclusions: Circulating levels of Gal-3 are independently associated with frailty in elderly patients with systolic HF.

PurposeTo assess the impact of body mass index (BMI) on cardiac adrenergic derangement, measured by iodine-123 meta-iodobenzylguanidine (123I-mIBG) imaging in heart failure (HF) patients. Overweight and obesity represent relevant health issues, and augmented sympathetic tone has been described in patients with increased BMI. An extensive literature supports that HF-dependent cardiac denervation, measured through mIBG parameters, is an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. However, the influence of BMI on cardiac mIBG uptake has not been largely investigated.MethodsWe prospectively enrolled patients with systolic HF, collecting demographic, clinical, echocardiographic data, and mIBG imaging parameters. In order to detect the factors associated with mIBG parameters, a model building strategy, based on the Multivariable Fractional Polynomial algorithm, has been employed.ResultsWe studied 249 patients with systolic HF, mean age of 66.4 ± 10.6 years, and mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 30.7% ± 6.4, undergoing cardiac 123I-mIBG imaging to assess HF severity and prognosis. Seventy-eight patients (31.3%) presented a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 and obese patients showed a significant reduction in early heart to mediastinum (H/M) ratio (1.66 ± 0.19 vs. 1.75 ± 0.26; p = 0.008) and a trend to reduction in washout rate (33.6 ± 18.3 vs. 38.1 ± 20.1; p = 0.092) compared with patients with BMI < 30 kg/m2. Multiple regression analysis revealed that BMI, age, and LVEF were significantly correlated with early and late H/M ratios.ConclusionsResults of the present study indicate that BMI, together with LVEF and age, is independently correlated with cardiac mIBG uptake in HF patients.

Warfarin is the most frequently prescribed anticoagulant worldwide. However, warfarin therapy is associated with a high risk of bleeding and thromboembolic events because of a large interindividual dose-response variability. We investigated the effect of genetic and non genetic factors on warfarin dosage in a South Italian population in the attempt to setup an algorithm easily applicable in the clinical practice. A total of 266 patients from Southern Italy affected by cardiovascular diseases were enrolled and their clinical and anamnestic data recorded. All patients were genotyped for CYP2C9 2, 3, CYP4F2 3, VKORC1 -1639 G>A by the TaqMan assay and for variants VKORC1 1173 C>T and VKORC1 3730 G>A by denaturing high performance liquid chromatography and direct sequencing. The effect of genetic and not genetic factors on warfarin dose variability was tested by multiple linear regression analysis, and an algorithm based on our data was established and then validated by the Jackknife procedure. Warfarin dose variability was influenced, in decreasing order, by VKORC1-1639 G>A (29.7%), CYP2C9 3 (11.8%), age (8.5%), CYP2C9 2 (3.5%), gender (2.0%) and lastly CYP4F2 3 (1.7%); VKORC1 1173 C>T and VKORC1 3730 G>A exerted a slight effect (<1% each). Taken together, these factors accounted for 58.4% of the warfarin dose variability in our population. Data obtained with our algorithm significantly correlated with those predicted by the two online algorithms: Warfarin dosing and Pharmgkb (p<0.001; R(2) = 0.805 and p<0.001; R(2) = 0.773, respectively). Our algorithm, which is based on six polymorphisms, age and gender, is user-friendly and its application in clinical practice could improve the personalized management of patients undergoing warfarin therapy.

IntroductionFrailty is a geriatric syndrome, a clinical state of vulnerability for developing dependency and/or death. Due to its multidimensional nature, Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) constitutes the best strategy to evaluate frailty in older patients. Accumulation of deficits model synthesizes the global assessment of geriatric domains in the Frailty Index (FI) score. Muscle Ultrasound (MUS) has been employed to evaluate muscle mass wasting as tool to assess sarcopenia in late life. The present study aims to evaluate the association between CGA-based FI and MUS measures in a population of hospitalized older adults.MethodsPatients aged ≥65 years underwent CGA for the evaluation of the domains of health and functional status, psycho-cognition, nutritional status, socio-environmental condition. Following standard procedure, a CGA-based FI was elaborated, taking into account 38 multidimensional items. Muscle thicknesses (MT) of rectus femoris plus vastus intermedius were measured through MUS axial cross-section. Multivariable regression analysis was employed to determine factors associated with FI.ResultsThe study population consisted of 136 older patients, 87 men (63.9%), with median age of 74 (70–81) years, FI of 0.3 (0.21–0.46), and MT of rectus femoris plus vastus intermedius 29.27 (23.08–35.7) mm. At multivariable regression analysis, FI resulted significantly and independently associated with age and MT.ConclusionMuscle thicknesses of rectus femoris plus vastus intermedius, measured through MUS, resulted to be significantly related to FI in a population of hospitalized older patients. In the CGA-based assessment of frailty, MUS may constitute an additional imaging domain.

We investigated the prevalence of visual impairment (VI), its determinants and its association with Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), Gross Mobility (GM) and 6-year mortality in elderly subjects. A cross-sectional survey in a large population randomly selected in 1992 with a 6-year mortality evaluation in Campania, a region in southern Italy. A random sample of 1332 elderly subjects aged 65 to 95 years (mean age 74.2 +/- 6.4), selected from the electoral rolls, was interviewed by trained physicians. Self-reported visual function, socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded. Disability was assessed by measuring ability in ADL, IADL and GM. VI was found to affect 34% of this population, with an age-related increase of mild and severe VI. VI affects ADL, IADL and GM disability. Age, diabetes and low educational level, but not comorbidity or hypertension, proved to be predictors of VI. Mortality increased with severity of VI in 38.1% of subjects with severe functional impairment (p < 0.001). The presence of VI was seen to increase the risk of mortality by 1.40 (95% CI 1.07-1.84), independently of age, sex, comorbidity, diabetes, hypertension or disability. This study demonstrates an association between visual impairment and disability in an elderly population, and the predictive effect of visual impairment on mortality independently of comorbidity. These results illustrate the need to eradicate avoidable blindness, in order to improve the quality of life and to prolong survival of the elderly.