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Focusing on driver-gene mutations and the pathways they control has rendered complex cancer-genome landscapes intelligible. In solid tumors of adults, alterations in as few as three driver genes appear to suffice for a cell to evolve into an advanced cancer. Nearly 30 years ago, it was hypothesized that cancers result from sequential mutations in specific oncogenes and tumor-suppressor genes. 1 This hypothesis was based on experimental data from patients with colorectal cancers and inspired by models proposed by Armitage and Doll, Nowell, Knudson, and others. Those experimental data were rudimentary by today's standards. The sequence of all coding genes has now been determined for more than 22,000 cancers, and more than 3 million somatic mutations have been discovered. So has the sequential cancer gene hypothesis stood the test of time? Genomewide sequencing has provided some relevant insights. It has shown that . . .

Cancers are caused by mutations that may be inherited, induced by environmental factors, or result from DNA replication errors (R). We studied the relationship between the number of normal stem cell divisions and the risk of 17 cancer types in 69 countries throughout the world. The data revealed a strong correlation (median = 0.80) between cancer incidence and normal stem cell divisions in all countries, regardless of their environment. The major role of R mutations in cancer etiology was supported by an independent approach, based solely on cancer genome sequencing and epidemiological data, which suggested that R mutations are responsible for two-thirds of the mutations in human cancers. All of these results are consistent with epidemiological estimates of the fraction of cancers that can be prevented by changes in the environment. Moreover, they accentuate the importance of early detection and intervention to reduce deaths from the many cancers arising from unavoidable R mutations.

Although it has been hypothesized that some of the somatic mutations found in tumors may occur before tumor initiation, there is little experimental or conceptual data on this topic. To gain insights into this fundamental issue, we formulated a mathematical model for the evolution of somatic mutations in which all relevant phases of a tissue’s history are considered. The model makes the prediction, validated by our empirical findings, that the number of somatic mutations in tumors of self-renewing tissues is positively correlated with the age of the patient at diagnosis. Importantly, our analysis indicates that half or more of the somatic mutations in certain tumors of self-renewing tissues occur before the onset of neoplasia. The model also provides a unique way to estimate the in vivo tissue-specific somatic mutation rates in normal tissues directly from the sequencing data of tumors. Our results have substantial implications for the interpretation of the large number of genome-wide cancer studies now being undertaken.

In patients with resectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM), the role of pre- and postoperative systemic therapy continues to be debated. Previous studies have shown that circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis, as a marker of minimal residual disease, is a powerful prognostic factor in patients with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). Serial analysis of ctDNA in patients with resectable CRLM could inform the optimal use of perioperative chemotherapy. Here, we performed a validation study to confirm the prognostic impact of postoperative ctDNA in resectable CRLM observed in a previous discovery study. We prospectively collected plasma samples from patients with resectable CRLM, including presurgical and postsurgical samples, serial samples during any pre- or postoperative chemotherapy, and serial samples in follow-up. Via targeted sequencing of 15 genes commonly mutated in CRC, we identified at least 1 somatic mutation in each patient's tumor. We then designed a personalized assay to assess 1 mutation in plasma samples using the Safe-SeqS assay. A total of 380 plasma samples from 54 patients recruited from July 2011 to Dec 2014 were included in our analysis. Twenty-three (43%) patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and 42 patients (78%) received adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery. Median follow-up was 51 months (interquartile range, 31 to 60 months). At least 1 somatic mutation was identified in all patients' tumor tissue. ctDNA was detectable in 46/54 (85%) patients prior to any treatment and 12/49 (24%) patients after surgery. There was a median 40.93-fold (19.10 to 87.73, P < 0.001) decrease in ctDNA mutant allele fraction with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, but ctDNA clearance during neoadjuvant chemotherapy was not associated with a better recurrence-free survival (RFS). Patients with detectable postoperative ctDNA experienced a significantly lower RFS (HR 6.3; 95% CI 2.58 to 15.2; P < 0.001) and overall survival (HR 4.2; 95% CI 1.5 to 11.8; P < 0.001) compared to patients with undetectable ctDNA. For the 11 patients with detectable postoperative ctDNA who had serial ctDNA sampling during adjuvant chemotherapy, ctDNA clearance was observed in 3 patients, 2 of whom remained disease-free. All 8 patients with persistently detectable ctDNA after adjuvant chemotherapy have recurred. End-of-treatment (surgery +/- adjuvant chemotherapy) ctDNA detection was associated with a 5-year RFS of 0% compared to 75.6% for patients with an undetectable end-of-treatment ctDNA (HR 14.9; 95% CI 4.94 to 44.7; P < 0.001). Key limitations of the study include the small sample size and the potential for false-positive findings with multiple hypothesis testing. We confirmed the prognostic impact of postsurgery and posttreatment ctDNA in patients with resected CRLM. The potential utility of serial ctDNA analysis during adjuvant chemotherapy as an early marker of treatment efficacy was also demonstrated. Further studies are required to define how to optimally integrate ctDNA analyses into decision-making regarding the use and timing of adjuvant therapy for resectable CRLM. ACTRN12612000345886.

Treatment decisions for cancer patients are increasingly guided by analysis of the gene mutations that drive primary tumor growth. Relatively little is known about driver gene mutations in metastases, which cause most cancer-related deaths. Reiter et al. explored whether the growth of different metastatic lesions within an individual patient is fueled by the same or distinct gene mutations. In a study of 76 untreated metastases from 20 patients with different types of cancer, all metastases within a patient shared the same functional driver gene mutations. Thus, analysis of a single biopsy could help oncologists select the optimal therapy for patients with widespread metastatic disease. Science , this issue p. 1033 The growth of different metastatic lesions within an individual cancer patient is fueled by the same genetic mutations. Metastases are responsible for the majority of cancer-related deaths. Although genomic heterogeneity within primary tumors is associated with relapse, heterogeneity among treatment-naïve metastases has not been comprehensively assessed. We analyzed sequencing data for 76 untreated metastases from 20 patients and inferred cancer phylogenies for breast, colorectal, endometrial, gastric, lung, melanoma, pancreatic, and prostate cancers. We found that within individual patients, a large majority of driver gene mutations are common to all metastases. Further analysis revealed that the driver gene mutations that were not shared by all metastases are unlikely to have functional consequences. A mathematical model of tumor evolution and metastasis formation provides an explanation for the observed driver gene homogeneity. Thus, single biopsies capture most of the functionally important mutations in metastases and therefore provide essential information for therapeutic decision-making.

The identification of mutations that are present in a small fraction of DNA templates is essential for progress in several areas of biomedical research. Although massively parallel sequencing instruments are in principle well suited to this task, the error rates in such instruments are generally too high to allow confident identification of rare variants. We here describe an approach that can substantially increase the sensitivity of massively parallel sequencing instruments for this purpose. The keys to this approach, called the Safe-Sequencing System (\"Safe-SeqS\"), are (i) assignment of a unique identifier (UID) to each template molecule, (ii) amplification of each uniquely tagged template molecule to create UID families, and (iii) redundant sequencing of the amplification products. PCR fragments with the same UID are considered mutant (\"supermutants\") only if ≥95% of them contain the identical mutation. We illustrate the utility of this approach for determining the fidelity of a polymerase, the accuracy of oligonucleotides synthesized in vitro, and the prevalence of mutations in the nuclear and mitochondrial genomes of normal cells.

Sequencing has identified millions of somatic mutations in human cancers, but distinguishing cancer driver genes remains a major challenge. Numerous methods have been developed to identify driver genes, but evaluation of the performance of these methods is hindered by the lack of a gold standard, that is, bona fide driver gene mutations. Here, we establish an evaluation framework that can be applied to driver gene prediction methods. We used this framework to compare the performance of eight such methods. One of these methods, described here, incorporated a machine-learning–based ratiometric approach. We show that the driver genes predicted by each of the eight methods vary widely. Moreover, the P values reported by several of the methods were inconsistent with the uniform values expected, thus calling into question the assumptions that were used to generate them. Finally, we evaluated the potential effects of unexplained variability in mutation rates on false-positive driver gene predictions. Our analysis points to the strengths and weaknesses of each of the currently available methods and offers guidance for improving them in the future.

The role of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II colon cancer continues to be debated. The presence of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) after surgery predicts very poor recurrence-free survival, whereas its absence predicts a low risk of recurrence. The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for ctDNA-positive patients is not well understood. We conducted a trial to assess whether a ctDNA-guided approach could reduce the use of adjuvant chemotherapy without compromising recurrence risk. Patients with stage II colon cancer were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to have treatment decisions guided by either ctDNA results or standard clinicopathological features. For ctDNA-guided management, a ctDNA-positive result at 4 or 7 weeks after surgery prompted oxaliplatin-based or fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. Patients who were ctDNA-negative were not treated. The primary efficacy end point was recurrence-free survival at 2 years. A key secondary end point was adjuvant chemotherapy use. Of the 455 patients who underwent randomization, 302 were assigned to ctDNA-guided management and 153 to standard management. The median follow-up was 37 months. A lower percentage of patients in the ctDNA-guided group than in the standard-management group received adjuvant chemotherapy (15% vs. 28%; relative risk, 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 2.65). In the evaluation of 2-year recurrence-free survival, ctDNA-guided management was noninferior to standard management (93.5% and 92.4%, respectively; absolute difference, 1.1 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.1 to 6.2 [noninferiority margin, -8.5 percentage points]). Three-year recurrence-free survival was 86.4% among ctDNA-positive patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy and 92.5% among ctDNA-negative patients who did not. A ctDNA-guided approach to the treatment of stage II colon cancer reduced adjuvant chemotherapy use without compromising recurrence-free survival. (Supported by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and others; DYNAMIC Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12615000381583.).

Identification and quantification of low-frequency mutations remain challenging despite improvements in the baseline error rate of next-generation sequencing technologies. Here, we describe a method, termed SaferSeqS, that addresses these challenges by (1) efficiently introducing identical molecular barcodes in the Watson and Crick strands of template molecules and (2) enriching target sequences with strand-specific PCR. The method achieves high sensitivity and specificity and detects variants at frequencies below 1 in 100,000 DNA template molecules with a background mutation rate of <5 × 10 –7 mutants per base pair (bp). We demonstrate that it can evaluate mutations in a single amplicon or simultaneously in multiple amplicons, assess limited quantities of cell-free DNA with high recovery of both strands and reduce the error rate of existing PCR-based molecular barcoding approaches by >100-fold. Mutations present at a low frequency in a sample are detected with high sensitivity and a low error rate.

Over the past decade, comprehensive sequencing efforts have revealed the genomic landscapes of common forms of human cancer. For most cancer types, this landscape consists of a small number of \"mountains\" (genes altered in a high percentage of tumors) and a much larger number of \"hills\" (genes altered infrequently). To date, these studies have revealed ~140 genes that, when altered by intragenic mutations, can promote or \"drive\" tumorigenesis. A typical tumor contains two to eight of these \"driver gene\" mutations; the remaining mutations are passengers that confer no selective growth advantage. Driver genes can be classified into 12 signaling pathways that regulate three core cellular processes: cell fate, cell survival, and genome maintenance. A better understanding of these pathways is one of the most pressing needs in basic cancer research. Even now, however, our knowledge of cancer genomes is sufficient to guide the development of more effective approaches for reducing cancer morbidity and mortality.