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It is well established that exposure to heat-stress conditions significantly impacts the physiology, health, welfare, and productivity of both sheep and cattle. The aim of this study was to apply the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) in order to assess the impact of future climate conditions on the thermal stress exposure of sheep and cattle in Greece. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used as a high-resolution regional climate model to simulate climate conditions for two decades in Greece at a 10 Km spatial resolution and a 1 h temporal resolution. The WRF model was applied to two emission scenarios, namely SSP2-4.5 (intermediate) and SSP5-8.5 (worst-case). Projections were made for the near-future decade (2046–2055), with the decade (2005–2014) serving as the reference period for comparative analysis. The data analysis indicated that under the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario, the mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.4 °C and 1.4–1.6 °C across 38% and 58% of the country’s territory, respectively. Increases higher than 1.6 °C are projected across 32% of the Greek territory under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. The mean THI (sheep) and mean THI (adj) (cattle) are projected to increase by 5–10% and by 4% across 74% and 82% of the Greek territory, respectively, when considering the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario. Slightly more severe mean heat-stress conditions were projected when considering the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. The analysis of the hourly THI values showed that sheep and cattle are expected to experience heat-stress conditions during extended periods in the future, in which hot weather will prevail. Specifically, the number of severe/danger heat-stress hours is projected to double in the greater part of the country. To mitigate the adverse effects of climate-change-induced thermal stress on animal productivity, health, and welfare, the implementation of adaptation measures and best management practices is strongly recommended for sheep and cattle farmers. These measures encompass improvements in breeding strategies, livestock housing and microclimate management, nutritional interventions, and the adoption of precision livestock farming technologies. Given the outstanding economic, social, and environmental importance of sheep and cattle farming in Greece, effective adaptation to and mitigation of climate change impacts represent urgent priorities to ensure the long-term sustainability and resilience of the livestock sector.

This study quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness of three main options for the adaptation of crop farming to climate change (i.e., shift of planting dates, increase/addition of irrigation, and resilient hybrids/cultivars) in Greece, a country in southern Europe. The potential effect of each option on the yields of several crops in all Greek regions is estimated for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 and compared with those under the historical local climate of 1986–2005, by using agronomic and statistical regression models, and data from different climatic simulations and climate change scenarios. Our results reveal that all the adaptation options examined have the potential to significantly reduce crop yield losses occurring under no adaptation, particularly during 2021–2040 when for many regions and crops more than half of the losses can be compensated for. Notably, in some cases during this period, the measures examined resulted in crop yields that are higher than those under the historical climate. However, the effectiveness of the measures diminished significantly in 2041–2060 under very adverse climate change conditions, highlighting the dynamic nature of adaptation. Assessing the effectiveness of combined adaptation options and evaluating additional criteria (e.g., feasibility) represent essential areas for future research.

The study assesses the direct effects of climate change by 2060, including extreme events, on the productivity of regional crop farming and livestock in Greece, and the broader socio-economic effects on the agri-food and other sectors. Different approaches (i.e., agronomic models, statistical regression models, and equations linking thermal stress to livestock output) were combined to estimate the effects on productivity from changes in the average values of climatic parameters, and subsequently the direct economic effects from this long-term climate change. Recorded damages from extreme events together with climatic thresholds per event and crop were combined to estimate the direct economic effects of these extremes. The broader socio-economic effects were then estimated through input–output analysis. Under average levels of future extreme events, the total direct economic losses for Greek agriculture due to climate change will be significant, from EUR 437 million/year to EUR 1 billion/year. These losses approximately double when indirect effects on other sectors using agricultural products as inputs (e.g., food and beverage, hotels, and restaurants) are considered, and escalate further under a tenfold impact of extreme events. Losses in the GDP and employment are moderate at the national level, but significant in regions where the contribution of agriculture is high.

Climate change is expected to increasingly intensify the water stress that directly impacts crop productivity in the near future. This study integrates the crop water stress index (CWSI) with high-resolution regional climate simulations produced by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate water stress that winter wheat and olive trees will potentially experience in Greece in the future. Decadal, high-resolution climate simulations were generated for both the present and near-future periods using the most recent shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) framework. A bias-corrected dataset based on 18 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 was used for boundary conditions to mitigate errors associated with individual global model biases. Projections indicated a mean air temperature increase of 1.1–1.7 °C and a relative humidity decrease of up to 3.5%. Mean CWSI increases of up to 6% and 4% were projected in most of the country for winter wheat and olive trees, respectively. The water stress of the winter wheat was also assessed over the three growing stages defined by the FAO. The analysis showed that water stress may occur during all growing stages, inducing potential impacts on tillering, photosynthetic efficiency, biomass accumulation, or yield. Additionally, a water stress threshold (i.e., CWSI > 0.5) was applied for both species in order to carry out a spatial assessment of the water stress that is projected to occur in the future in key winter wheat-, olive oil- and table olive-producing Greek regions. The findings of this study can support the irrigation scheduling and the development of climate-resilient agricultural practices in Greece. The modeling framework that was established in this study can also be applied to other crops and regions in the Mediterranean.