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"Walsh, Kevin"
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Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming
Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.Detecting change in tropical cyclones is difficult from observational records. Here a reconstruction using reanalysis data of annual cyclone numbers shows they have declined globally and regionally over the twentieth century.
Journal Article
Scale Interaction of the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Australia
The influence of the MJO on the phase and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of rainfall during Australian summer [December–February (DJF)] over the Maritime Continent (MC) and northern Australia is investigated using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and 3G68 datasets. The gridded rainfall was partitioned into MJO categories (active, suppressed, and weak) based on their longitudinal position and by utilizing the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index of Wheeler and Hendon. The diurnal cycles were composited and an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to extract the spatial and temporal variability.
Distinct variations in the rainfall distribution pattern among categories of the MJO over land and ocean are seen. The result of the composite-mean rainfall distribution shows that the average daily rainfall rate over islands is higher during suppressed MJO days, while for surrounding oceans and northern regions of Australia, more rainfall occurs during MJO active days. The normalized relative amplitude (NRA) of the diurnal cycle of rainfall shows that morning rainfall near coastal areas during active days of the MJO is 1.5 times greater than the climatological-mean rainfall but is less than or equal to the climatological mean during other phases of the MJO. Similarly, during the suppressed phase of the MJO evening rainfall is greater over the islands than in other MJO phases. The first two modes of the EOF alone explain more than 88% (65%) of the variance for the 3B42 (3G68) rainfall, and the corresponding principal component time series show a marked diurnal cycle. The results show that both the amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall are modulated by the categories of the MJO. In general, the peak in the diurnal cycle for active (suppressed/weak) days of the MJO lags (leads) the peak in the diurnal cycle for total rainfall by 2 h. Over Darwin and its adjacent regions, the active phase of the MJO is responsible for the occurrence of maximum rainfall after midnight, which is unusual in this region.
Journal Article
Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences tropical cyclone variability. Under climate change, cyclones around Pacific island nations are projected to increase in frequency during El Niño events and decrease during La Niña events.
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world
1
,
2
,
3
. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming
4
,
5
,
6
,
7
,
8
will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins
9
,
10
,
11
. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (∼20–40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events—and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events—around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database
12
, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.
Journal Article
Fine resolution simulations of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones in the South Pacific
Fine-resolution (18 km) regional climate model simulations using the GFDL regional climate model ZETAC are implemented over a South Pacific domain, where the interannual variability of tropical cyclone formation is large. When forced with observed sea surface temperatures and reanalysis boundary conditions, the model is able to give a good simulation of the interannual variation of regions of tropical cyclone formation, with tropical cyclones simulated to form much further east during El Niño years, as observed. An imposed climate-change perturbation is applied to the model, with the resulting simulation indicating that fewer tropical cyclones form in this region in a warmer world. This result appears to be most closely related to increased vertical velocity in the equatorial Pacific, leading to compensating subsidence in the adjacent tropical cyclone formation regions of the South Pacific, thus suppressing tropical cyclone formation.
Journal Article
Natural hazards in Australia: sea level and coastal extremes
The Australian coastal zone encompasses tropical, sub- and extra-tropical climates and accommodates about 80 % of Australia’s population. Sea level extremes and their physical impacts in the coastal zone arise from a complex set of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial processes that interact on a range of spatial and temporal scales and will be modified by a changing climate, including sea level rise. This review details significant progress over recent years in understanding the causes of past and projections of future changes in sea level and coastal extremes, yet a number of research questions, knowledge gaps and challenges remain. These include efforts to improve knowledge on past sea level extremes, integrate a wider range of processes in projections of future changes to sea level extremes, and focus efforts on understanding long-term coastline response from the combination of contributing factors.
Journal Article
Influence of ENSO on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Australia
This study examines the influence of ENSO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall during boreal winter for the period 1998–2010 over the Maritime Continent (MC) and Australia using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and reanalysis data. The diurnal cycles are composited for the ENSO cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) phases. Thek-means clustering technique is then applied to group the TRMM data into six clusters, each with a distinct diurnal cycle. Despite the alternating patterns of widespread large-scale subsidence and ascent associated with the Walker circulation, which dominates the climate over the MC during the opposing phases of ENSO, many of the islands of the MC show localized differences in rainfall anomalies that depend on the local geography and orography. While ocean regions mostly experience positive rainfall anomalies during La Niña, some local regions over the islands have more rainfall during El Niño. These local features are also associated with anomalies in the amplitude and characteristics of the diurnal cycle in these regions. These differences are also well depicted in large-scale dynamical fields derived from the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim).
Journal Article
Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate
The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to further elucidate the underlying sensitivities and mechanisms, we study TCs response to different past and future climate forcings. Using a high-resolution TC-resolving global Earth system model with 1/4° atmosphere and 1/10° ocean resolution, we conducted a series of paleo-time-slice and future greenhouse warming simulations targeting the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, 125 ka), glacial sub-stage MIS5d (115 ka), present-day (PD), and CO
2
doubling (2×CO
2
) conditions. Our analysis reveals that precessional forcing created an interhemispheric difference in simulated TC densities, whereas future CO
2
forcing impacts both hemispheres in the same direction. In both cases, we find that TC genesis frequency, density, and intensity are primarily controlled by changes in tropospheric thermal and moisture structure, exhibiting a clear reduction in TC genesis density in warmer hemispheres.
Despite hemispherically different responses, high-resolution model simulations used in this study show that moisture-related variables are the main regulators of tropical cyclone frequency under both orbital and greenhouse gas forcing.
Journal Article
Growing the terrestrial planets from the gradual accumulation of submeter-sized objects
Building the terrestrial planets has been a challenge for planet formation models. In particular, classical theories have been unable to reproduce the small mass of Mars and instead predict that a planet near 1.5 astronomical units (AU) should roughly be the same mass as Earth. Recently, a new model called Viscously Stirred Pebble Accretion (VSPA) has been developed that can explain the formation of the gas giants. This model envisions that the cores of the giant planets formed from 100- to 1,000-km bodies that directly accreted a population of pebbles—submeter-sized objects that slowly grew in the protoplanetary disk. Here we apply this model to the terrestrial planet region and find that it can reproduce the basic structure of the inner solar system, including a small Mars and a low-mass asteroid belt. Our models show that for an initial population of planetesimals with sizes similar to those of the main belt asteroids, VSPA becomes inefficient beyond ∼ 1.5 AU. As a result, Mars’s growth is stunted, and nothing large in the asteroid belt can accumulate.
Journal Article
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment
Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14%, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5% (range: 1%–10%) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4–5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13%. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4–5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed.
Journal Article