Explore the vast range of titles available.

The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large changes in global climate patterns from year to year, yet its sensitivity to continued anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is uncertain. We analyzed fossil coral reconstructions of ENSO spanning the past 7000 years from the Northern Line Islands, located in the center of action for ENSO. The corals document highly variable ENSO activity, with no evidence for a systematic trend in ENSO variance, which is contrary to some models that exhibit a response to insolation forcing over this same period. Twentieth-century ENSO variance is significantly higher than average fossil coral ENSO variance but is not unprecedented. Our results suggest that forced changes in ENSO, whether natural or anthropogenic, may be difficult to detect against a background of large internal variability.

Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time. This study examines the effect of four marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predators, revealing a wide-array of predator responses both among and within heatwaves. Predator responses were highly predictable, demonstrating capacity for early warning systems of heatwave impacts, similar to weather forecasts.

Time spent fishing is the effort metric often studied in fisheries but it may under-represent the effort actually expended by fishers. Entire fishing trips, from the time vessels leave port until they return, may prove more useful for examining trends in fleet dynamics, fisher behavior, and fishing costs. However, such trip information is often difficult to resolve. We identified ~30,000 trips made by vessels that targeted walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) in the Eastern Bering Sea from 2008-2014 by using vessel monitoring system (VMS) and landings data. We compared estimated trip durations to observer data, which were available for approximately half of trips. Total days at sea were estimated with < 1.5% error and 96.4% of trip durations were either estimated with < 5% error or they were within expected measurement error. With 99% accuracy, we classified trips as fishing for pollock, for another target species, or not fishing. This accuracy lends strong support to the use of our method with unobserved trips across North Pacific fisheries. With individual trips resolved, we examined potential errors in datasets which are often viewed as \"the truth.\" Despite having > 5 million VMS records (timestamps and vessel locations), this study was as much about understanding and managing data errors as it was about characterizing trips. Missing VMS records were pervasive and they strongly influenced our approach. To understand implications of missing data on inference, we simulated removal of VMS records from trips. Removal of records straightened (i.e., shortened) vessel trajectories, and travel distances were underestimated, on average, by 1.5-13.4% per trip. Despite this bias, VMS proved robust for trip characterization and for improved quality control of human-recorded data. Our scrutiny of human-reported and VMS data advanced our understanding of the potential utility and challenges facing VMS users globally.

Individuals relying on natural resource extraction for their livelihood face high income variability driven by a mix of environmental, biological, management, and economic factors. Key to managing these industries is identifying how regulatory actions and individual behavior affect income variability, financial risk, and, by extension, the economic stability and the sustainable use of natural resources. In commercial fisheries, communities and vessels fishing a greater diversity of species have less revenue variability than those fishing fewer species. However, it is unclear whether these benefits extend to the actions of individual fishers and how year-to-year changes in diversification affect revenue and revenue variability. Here, we evaluate two axes by which fishers in Alaska can diversify fishing activities. We show that, despite increasing specialization over the last 30 years, fishing a set of permits with higher species diversity reduces individual revenue variability, and fishing an additional permit is associated with higher revenue and lower variability. However, increasing species diversity within the constraints of existing permits has a fishery-dependent effect on revenue and is usually (87% probability) associated with increased revenue uncertainty the following year. Our results demonstrate that the most effective option for individuals to decrease revenue variability is to participate in additional or more diverse fisheries. However, this option is expensive, often limited by regulations such as catch share programs, and consequently unavailable to many individuals. With increasing climatic variability, it will be particularly important that individuals relying on natural resources for their livelihood have effective strategies to reduce financial risk.

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a major problem worldwide, often made more challenging by a lack of at-sea and shoreside monitoring of commercial fishery catches. Off the US West Coast, as in many places, a primary concern for enforcement and management is whether vessels are illegally fishing in locations where they are not permitted to fish. We explored the use of supervised machine learning analysis in a partially observed fishery to identify potentially illicit behaviors when vessels did not have observers on board. We built classification models (random forest and gradient boosting ensemble tree estimators) using labeled data from nearly 10,000 fishing trips for which we had landing records ( i.e. , catch data) and observer data. We identified a set of variables related to catch ( e.g. , catch weights and species) and delivery port that could predict, with 97% accuracy, whether vessels fished in state versus federal waters. Notably, our model performances were robust to inter-annual variability in the fishery environments during recent anomalously warm years. We applied these models to nearly 60,000 unobserved landing records and identified more than 500 instances in which vessels may have illegally fished in federal waters. This project was developed at the request of fisheries enforcement investigators, and now an automated system analyzes all new unobserved landings records to identify those in need of additional investigation for potential violations. Similar approaches informed by the spatial preferences of species landed may support monitoring and enforcement efforts in any number of partially observed, or even totally unobserved, fisheries globally.

1. Theory and previous studies have shown that commercial fishers with a diversified catch across multiple species may experience benefits such as increased revenue and reduced variability in revenue. However, fishers can only increase the species diversity of their catch if they own fishing permits that allow multiple species to be targeted, or if they own multiple single-species permits. Individuals holding a single permit can only increase catch diversity within the confines of their permit (e.g. by fishing longer or over a broader spatial area). 2. Using a large dataset of individual salmon fishers in Alaska, we build a Bayesian variance function regression model to understand how diversification impacts revenue and revenue variability, and how these effects have evolved since the 1970s. 3. Applying these models to six salmon fisheries that encompass a broad geographic range and a variety of harvesting methods and species, we find that the majority of these fisheries have experienced reduced catch diversity through time and increasing benefits of specialization on mean individual revenues. 4. One factor that has been hypothesized to reduce catch diversity in salmon fisheries is large-scale hatchery production. While our results suggest negative correlations between hatchery returns and catch diversity for some fisheries, we find little evidence for a change in variability of annual catches associated with increased hatchery production. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite general trends towards more specialization among commercial fishers in Alaska, and more fishers exclusively targeting salmon, we find that catching fewer species can have positive effects on revenue. With increasing specialization, it is important to understand how individuals buffer against risk, as well as any barriers that prevent diversification. In addition to being affected by environmental variability, fishers are also affected by economic factors including demand and prices offered by processors. Life-history variation in the species targeted may also play a role. Individuals participating in Alaskan fisheries with high contributions of pink salmon — which have the shortest life cycles of all Pacific salmon — also have the highest variability in year-to-year revenue.

Several lines of evidence indicate that microorganisms in the meso- and bathypelagic ocean are metabolically active and respiring carbon. In addition, growing evidence suggests that archaea are fixing inorganic carbon in this environment. However, direct quantification of the contribution from deep ocean carbon sources to community production in the dark ocean remains a challenge. In this study, carbon flow through the microbial community at 2 depths in the mesopelagic zone of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre was examined by exploiting the unique radiocarbon signatures (Δ¹⁴C) of the 3 major carbon sources in this environment. The radiocarbon content of nucleic acids, a biomarker for viable cells, isolated from size-fractionated particles (0.2-0.5 μm and >0.5 μm) showed the direct incorporation of carbon delivered by rapidly sinking particles. Most significantly, at the 2 mesopelagic depths examined (670 m and 915 m), carbon derived from in situ autotrophic fixation supported a significant fraction of the free-living microbial community (0.2-0.5 μm size fraction), but the contribution of chemoautotrophy varied markedly between the 2 depths. Results further showed that utilization of the ocean's largest reduced carbon reservoir, ¹⁴C-depleted, dissolved organic carbon, was negligible in this environment. This isotopic portrait of carbon assimilation by the in situ, free-living microbial community, integrated over >50,000 L of seawater, implies that recent, photosynthetic carbon is not always the major carbon source supporting microbial community production in the mesopelagic realm.

Discarding of prohibited, under-sized, or nontarget finfish is a major problem globally. Many such unwanted or banned catches do not survive long enough to be released alive, creating complex ecological and policy issues for the fishing industry. In U.S. Federal waters, regulation requires bycatch to be avoided as practicable and bycatch of some finfish species is designated as prohibited species catch (PSC). By regulation, PSC cannot be retained or sold and it must be returned to the sea (dead or alive). Some PSC species have strict limits to further incentivize their avoidance and limit bycatch mortality and these limits can lead to fishery closures. Despite extensive efforts to avoid bycatch in the U.S. and elsewhere, unwanted catches still occur, creating the potential for substantial food waste. We present one rarely discussed approach to maximize the value of dead, unwanted or prohibited finfish catches. The Prohibited Species Donation (PSD) program utilizes trawl fishery PSC that would otherwise be discarded by instead donating it to hunger relief organizations. This program simultaneously provides food and reduces waste while avoiding inadvertent incentives for catching prohibited species. For 26 years, the non-profit organization, SeaShare, has worked with the Alaska seafood industry to distribute 2660 t (~23.5 million servings) of prohibited species donations (salmon and halibut), high quality seafood that would have otherwise been discarded due to prohibition on retention. The PSD program provides an example that addresses food security and social value, an under-represented perspective in the global dialogue on unwanted catches.

While there have been recent improvements in reducing bycatch in many fisheries, bycatch remains a threat for numerous species around the globe. Static spatial and temporal closures are used in many places as a tool to reduce bycatch. However, their effectiveness in achieving this goal is uncertain, particularly for highly mobile species.We evaluated evidence for the effects of temporal, static, and dynamic area closures on the bycatch and target catch of 15 fisheries around the world. Assuming perfect knowledge of where the catch and bycatch occurs and a closure of 30% of the fishing area, we found that dynamic area closures could reduce bycatch by an average of 57% without sacrificing catch of target species, compared to 16% reductions in bycatch achievable by static closures. The degree of bycatch reduction achievable for a certain quantity of target catch was related to the correlation in space and time between target and bycatch species. If the correlation was high, it was harder to find an area to reduce bycatch without sacrificing catch of target species. If the goal of spatial closures is to reduce bycatch, our results suggest that dynamic management provides substantially better outcomes than classic static marine area closures. The use of dynamic ocean management might be difficult to implement and enforce in many regions. Nevertheless, dynamic approaches will be increasingly valuable as climate change drives species and fisheries into new habitats or extended ranges, altering species-fishery interactions and underscoring the need for more responsive and flexible regulatory mechanisms.

The food sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, contributing 10–32% of global anthropogenic sources. Compared with land-based food production systems, relatively little is known about the climate impact of seafood products. Previous studies have placed an emphasis on fishing activities, overlooking the contribution of the processing phase in the seafood supply chain. Furthermore, other studies have ignored short-lived climate forcing pollutants which can be particularly large for ship fuels. To address these critical knowledge gaps, we conducted a carbon footprint analysis of seafood products from Alaska pollock, one of the world’s largest fisheries. A holistic assessment was made including all components in the supply chain from fishing through retail display case, including a broad suite of climate forcing pollutants (well-mixed greenhouse gases, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, black carbon and organic carbon), for domestic and top importers. We found that in some instances the processing phase contributed nearly twice the climate impact as the fishing phase of the seafood supply chain. For highly fuel-efficient fisheries, such as the Alaska pollock catcher-processor fleet, including the processing phase of the seafood supply chain is essential. Furthermore, the contribution from cooling emissions (sulfur and nitrogen oxides, and organic carbon) offsets a significant portion of the climate forcing from warming emissions. The estimates that include only greenhouse gases are as much as 2.6 times higher than the cases that include short-lived climate forcing pollutants. This study also advances our understanding of the climate impact of seafood distribution with products for the domestic retail market having a climate impact that is as much as 1.6 times higher than export products that undergo transoceanic shipping. A full accounting of the supply chain and of the impact of the pollutants emitted by food production systems is important for climate change mitigation strategies in the near-term.