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Career assessment : qualitative approaches
\"Career Assessment: Qualitative Approaches will assume a seminal place in the field of career development as the first book to focus solely on qualitative approaches to career assessment. This book represents a timely and important contribution to career development as it seeks to meet the needs of increasingly diverse client groups. Part 1, Foundations strongly positions qualitative career assessment in its historical, philosophical, theoretical and research contexts. The book is innovative by considering qualitative career assessment through the lens of learning. Part 2, Instruments, presents the first collation of chapters on a comprehensive range of qualitative career assessment instruments and processes written to a standard format to enable readers to compare, contrast and evaluate approaches. Part 3, Using quantitative career assessment qualitatively, mitigates against depicting an unnecessary divide in the field between quantitative and qualitative career assessment by considering their complementarities. Part 4, Diverse Contexts, considers qualitative approaches to career assessment in contexts other than able western, middle class settings. Part 5, Future Directions, reflects on the chapters and poses suggestions for the future. With high profile authors from nine different countries, the book represents a truly international contribution to the field of career development. In its focus on qualitative career assessment, this book holds a unique position as the only such text and will therefore assume an important place in the libraries of researchers, academics, and career practitioners\"--Page 4 of cover.
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IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC CAUSAL EFFECTS IN MACROECONOMICS USING EXTERNAL INSTRUMENTS
External sources of as-if randomness — that is, external instruments — can be used to identify the dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic shocks. One method is a one-step instrumental variables regression (local projections - IV); a more efficient two-step method involves a vector au to regression. We show that, under a restrictive instrument validity condition, the one-step method is valid even if the vector autoregression is not invertible, so comparing the two estimates provides a test of invertibility. If, however, lagged endogenous variables are needed as control variables in the one-step method, then the conditions for validity of the two methods are the same.
Journal Article
My first encyclopedia
A picture encyclopedia that covers the human body, the family, homes, pets, sports, and other aspects of the world.
Book
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration
The US economy has performed better when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance. For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future.
Journal Article
Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession
The rate of inflation fell far less over the period 2007-2013 than in the period 1979-1985 despite similar large increases in the unemployment rate. This paper asks why. Possible explanations include a change in the persistence of inflation, changes in NAIRU, and other shocks. A change in the persistence of inflation, with inflation more anchored in the period 2007-2013 than in the period 1979-1985, is found to be important. The level and change in the NAIRU cannot be precisely estimated, but the data suggest an increase of nearly 1 percentage point since 2007.
Journal Article
CORE INFLATION AND TREND INFLATION
This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the time-varying volatility and persistence of the sectoral inflation series and on the comovement among sectors. The modeling framework is a dynamic factor model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility as in Del Negro and Otrok (2008), and is estimated using U.S. data on seventeen components of the personal consumption expenditure inflation index.
Journal Article
Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures
This review tells the story of the past 20 years of time series econometrics through ten pictures. These pictures illustrate six broad areas of progress in time series econometrics: estimation of dynamic causal effects; estimation of dynamic structural models with optimizing agents (specifically, dynamic stochastic equilibrium models); methods for exploiting information in “big data” that are specialized to economic time series; improved methods for forecasting and for monitoring the economy; tools for modeling time variation in economic relationships; and improved methods for statistical inference. Taken together, the pictures show how 20 years of research have improved our ability to undertake our professional responsibilities. These pictures also remind us of the close connection between econometric theory and the empirical problems that motivate the theory, and of how the best econometric theory tends to arise from practical empirical problems.
Journal Article
Disentangling the Channels of the 2007–09 Recession with Comments and Discussion
This paper examines the macroeconomic dynamics of the 2007–09 recession in the United States and the subsequent slow recovery. Using a dynamic factor model with 200 variables, we reach three main conclusions. First, although many of the events of the 2007–09 collapse were unprecedented, their net effect was to produce macro shocks that were larger versions of shocks previously experienced, to which the economy responded in a historically predictable way. Second, the shocks that produced the recession were primarily associated with financial disruptions and heightened uncertainty, although oil shocks played a role in the initial slowdown, and subsequent drag was added by effectively tight conventional monetary policy arising from the zero lower bound. Third, although the slow nature of the recovery is partly due to the shocks of this recession, most of the slow recovery in employment, and nearly all of the slow recovery in output, is due to a secular slowdown in trend labor force growth.
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