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Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 degrees Centigrade by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 degrees Centigrade climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS.

Global methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength. We present simulations with an inverted intermediate complexity climate model, which follows prescribed global warming pathways to stabilization at 1.5 or 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, and which incorporates a state-of-the-art global land surface model with updated descriptions of wetland and permafrost carbon release. We demonstrate that the climate feedbacks from those two processes are substantial. Specifically, permissible anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 emission budgets are reduced by 9–15% (25–38 GtC) for stabilization at 1.5 °C, and 6–10% (33–52 GtC) for 2.0 °C stabilization. In our simulations these feedback processes respond more quickly at temperatures below 1.5 °C, and the differences between the 1.5 and 2 °C targets are disproportionately small. This key finding holds for transient emission pathways to 2100 and does not account for longer-term implications of these feedback processes. We conclude that natural feedback processes from wetlands and permafrost must be considered in assessments of transient emission pathways to limit global warming.

To understand the importance of methane on the levels of carbon emission reductions required to achieve temperature goals, a processed-based approach is necessary rather than reliance on the transient climate response to emissions. We show that plausible levels of methane (CH4) mitigation can make a substantial difference to the feasibility of achieving the Paris climate targets through increasing the allowable carbon emissions. This benefit is enhanced by the indirect effects of CH4 on ozone (O3). Here the differing effects of CH4 and CO2 on land carbon storage, including the effects of surface O3, lead to an additional increase in the allowable carbon emissions with CH4 mitigation. We find a simple robust relationship between the change in the 2100 CH4 concentration and the extra allowable cumulative carbon emissions between now and 2100 (0.27 ± 0.05 GtC per ppb CH4). This relationship is independent of modelled climate sensitivity and precise temperature target, although later mitigation of CH4 reduces its value and thus methane reduction effectiveness. Up to 12% of this increase in allowable emissions is due to the effect of surface ozone. We conclude early mitigation of CH4 emissions would significantly increase the feasibility of stabilising global warming below 1.5 °C, alongside having co-benefits for human and ecosystem health.

Coarse particulate matter (PM10) has long been understood to be hazardous to human health, with mortality rates increasing as a result of raised ground level concentrations. We explore the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology on daily mean observed PM10 concentration ([PM10]) using Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Meteorological reanalysis data for the winter months (DJF) between January 1999 and December 2008 and observed PM10 data for three urban background UK (Midland) sites were analysed. Three RWB diagnostics were used to identify RWB that had significant influence on UK Midland PM10. RWB events were classified according to whether the RWB was cyclonic or anticyclonic in its direction of breaking and whether the RWB event was influenced more by poleward or equatorial air masses. We find that there is a strong link between RWB events and UK [PM10]. Significant increases (p < 0.01) in UK [PM10] were seen 1 day following RWB occurring in spatially constrained northeast Atlantic-European regions. Analysis into episodic PM10 exceedance events shows increased probability of [PM10] exceedance associated with all RWB subsets. The greatest probability of exceeding the UK [PM10] threshold was associated with cyclonic RWB preceded by anticyclonic RWB forming an Ω block synoptic pattern. This mechanism suggests an easterly advection of European PM10 followed by prolonged stagnant conditions within the UK and led to an almost threefold increase in the probability of the UK Midlands exceeding a hazardous [PM10] threshold (0.383), when compared to days where no RWB was detected (0.129).

In the version of this Article originally published, a parallelization coding problem, which meant that a subset of model grid cells were subjected to erroneous updating of atmospheric gas concentrations, resulted in incorrect calculation of atmospheric CO2 for these grid cells, and therefore underestimation of the carbon uptake by land through vegetation growth and eventual increases to soil carbon stocks. Having re-run the simulations using the corrected code, the authors found that the original estimates of the impact of the natural wetland methane feedback were overestimated. The permafrost and natural wetland methane feedback requires lower permissible emissions of 9–15% to achieve climate stabilization at 1.5 °C, compared with the original published estimate of 17–23%. The Article text, Table 1 and Fig. 3 have been updated online to reflect the revised numerical estimates. The Supplementary Information file has also been amended, with Supplementary Figs 6, 7, 8 and 9 replaced with revised versions produced using the corrected model output. As the strength of feedbacks remain significant, still require inclusion in climate policy and are nonlinear with global warming, the overall conclusions of the Article remain unchanged.

Coarse particulate matter (PM.sub.10) has long been understood to be hazardous to human health, with mortality rates increasing as a result of raised ground level concentrations. We explore the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology on daily mean observed PM.sub.10 concentration ([PM.sub.10 ]) using Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Meteorological reanalysis data for the winter months (DJF) between January 1999 and December 2008 and observed PM.sub.10 data for three urban background UK (Midland) sites were analysed. Three RWB diagnostics were used to identify RWB that had significant influence on UK Midland PM.sub.10 . RWB events were classified according to whether the RWB was cyclonic or anticyclonic in its direction of breaking and whether the RWB event was influenced more by poleward or equatorial air masses. We find that there is a strong link between RWB events and UK [PM.sub.10 ]. Significant increases (p  <  0.01) in UK [PM.sub.10 ] were seen 1 day following RWB occurring in spatially constrained northeast Atlantic-European regions. Analysis into episodic PM.sub.10 exceedance events shows increased probability of [PM.sub.10 ] exceedance associated with all RWB subsets. The greatest probability of exceeding the UK [PM.sub.10 ] threshold was associated with cyclonic RWB preceded by anticyclonic RWB forming an Ω block synoptic pattern. This mechanism suggests an easterly advection of European PM.sub.10 followed by prolonged stagnant conditions within the UK and led to an almost threefold increase in the probability of the UK Midlands exceeding a hazardous [PM.sub.10 ] threshold (0.383), when compared to days where no RWB was detected (0.129).

Coarse particulate matter (PM10) has long been understood to be hazardous to human health, with mortality rates increasing as a result of raised ground level concentrations. We explore the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology on daily mean observed PM10 concentration ([PM10]) using Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Meteorological reanalysis data for the winter months (DJF) between January 1999 and December 2008 and observed PM10 data for three urban background UK (Midland) sites were analysed. Three RWB diagnostics were used to identify RWB that had significant influence on UK Midland PM10. RWB events were classified according to whether the RWB was cyclonic or anticyclonic in its direction of breaking and whether the RWB event was influenced more by poleward or equatorial air masses. We find that there is a strong link between RWB events and UK [PM10]. Significant increases (p  <  0.01) in UK [PM10] were seen 1 day following RWB occurring in spatially constrained northeast Atlantic–European regions. Analysis into episodic PM10 exceedance events shows increased probability of [PM10] exceedance associated with all RWB subsets. The greatest probability of exceeding the UK [PM10] threshold was associated with cyclonic RWB preceded by anticyclonic RWB forming an Ω block synoptic pattern. This mechanism suggests an easterly advection of European PM10 followed by prolonged stagnant conditions within the UK and led to an almost threefold increase in the probability of the UK Midlands exceeding a hazardous [PM10] threshold (0.383), when compared to days where no RWB was detected (0.129).

Localised infections, and burn wound sepsis are key concerns in the treatment of burns patients, and prevention of colonisation largely relies on biocides. Acetic acid has been shown to have good antibacterial activity against various planktonic organisms, however data is limited on efficacy, and few studies have been performed on biofilms. We sought to investigate the antibacterial activity of acetic acid against important burn wound colonising organisms growing planktonically and as biofilms. Laboratory experiments were performed to test the ability of acetic acid to inhibit growth of pathogens, inhibit the formation of biofilms, and eradicate pre-formed biofilms. Twenty-nine isolates of common wound-infecting pathogens were tested. Acetic acid was antibacterial against planktonic growth, with an minimum inhibitory concentration of 0.16-0.31% for all isolates, and was also able to prevent formation of biofilms (at 0.31%). Eradication of mature biofilms was observed for all isolates after three hours of exposure. This study provides evidence that acetic acid can inhibit growth of key burn wound pathogens when used at very dilute concentrations. Owing to current concerns of the reducing efficacy of systemic antibiotics, this novel biocide application offers great promise as a cheap and effective measure to treat infections in burns patients.

Tissue factor (TF) is critical for the activation of blood coagulation. TF function is regulated by the amount of externalised phosphatidylserine (PS) and phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) on the surface of the cell in which it is expressed. We investigated the role PS and PE in fibroblast TF function. Fibroblasts expressed 6-9 x 104 TF molecules/cell but had low specific activity for FXa generation. We confirmed that this was associated with minimal externalized PS and PE and characterised for the first time the molecular species of PS/PE demonstrating that these differed from those found in platelets. Mechanical damage of fibroblasts, used to simulate vascular injury, increased externalized PS/PE and led to a 7-fold increase in FXa generation that was inhibited by annexin V and an anti-TF antibody. Platelet-derived extracellular vesicles (EVs), that did not express TF, supported minimal FVIIa-dependent FXa generation but substantially increased fibroblast TF activity. This enhancement in fibroblast TF activity could also be achieved using synthetic liposomes comprising 10% PS without TF. In conclusion, despite high levels of surface TF expression, healthy fibroblasts express low levels of external-facing PS and PE limiting their ability to generate FXa. Addition of platelet-derived TF-negative EVs or artificial liposomes enhanced fibroblast TF activity in a PS dependent manner. These findings contribute information about the mechanisms that control TF function in the fibroblast membrane.

In a multinational, observer-blinded, randomized trial involving 44,165 participants 16 years of age or older and 2264 participants 12 to 15 years of age, the efficacy of the BNT162b2 vaccine was 91% against Covid-19 and 97% against severe disease through 6 months of follow-up. In South Africa, where the beta variant was widespread, vaccine efficacy was 100%. Late toxic effects from the vaccine were not observed.