Explore the vast range of titles available.

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a promising target for improving sub‐seasonal weather forecasts. Current forecast models struggle to simulate the MJO due to imperfect convective parameterizations and mean state biases, degrading their forecast skill. Previous studies have estimated a potential MJO predictability 5–15 days higher than current forecast skill, but these estimates also use models with parameterized convection. We perform a perfect‐model predictability experiment using a superparameterized global model in which the convective parameterization is replaced by a cloud resolving model. We add a second “silent” cloud resolving component to the control simulation that independently calculates convective‐scale processes using the same large‐scale forcings. The second set of convective states are used to initialize forecasts, representing uncertainty on the convective scale. We find a potential predictability of the MJO of 35–40 days in boreal winter using a single‐member ensemble forecast. Plain Language Summary The Madden‐Julian Oscillation is a convective signal in the tropics that has the potential to improve 10‐40‐day weather forecasts. Current weather forecast models struggle to simulate the MJO, leading to a lower forecast skill than many studies estimate could be possible. We use a model with a comparatively good representation of the MJO that calculates convection information with a cloud permitting model. We modify this multiscale model's structure to generate MJO forecasts for its own MJO. Results from these forecasts suggest that the MJO in this model could be predictable up to 35–40 days using a single‐member ensemble forecast, which is 5–10 days longer than current state‐of‐the‐art forecasts. Key Points A novel approach is used to conduct perfect‐model predictability experiments using a superparameterized global model A single ensemble member model with superparameterized convection finds a potential Madden‐Julian Oscillation predictability of 35–40 days Resulting predictability estimates are comparable to those from current state‐of‐the‐art multiple ensemble member forecasting models

Extreme heat occurred over Alaska in June–July 2019, posing risks to infrastructure, ecosystem, and human health. It is vital to improve our understanding of the causes of such events and the extent to which anthropogenic forcing may alter their likelihood and magnitude. Here, we use multiple large ensembles of climate models, comprising thousands of simulated years, to investigate these issues. Our results suggest that the presence of anthropogenic radiative forcing increased the likelihood of the 2019 extreme heat event by as much as 6%. Further we show the rate of occurrence of such an extreme heat event is likely to substantially increase in the future with increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. While uncertainty in projected climate risk from model choice leads to a broad range of future extreme heat event probabilities, some models project that with rapidly increasing levels of greenhouse gases the likelihood of such events would exceed 75% by 2090. Plain Language Summary An extended period of high temperatures across the state of Alaska in June and July, 2019 set multiple temperature records. Here, we examine the extent to which human‐driven climate change played a role in increasing the likelihood of experiencing such an extreme event. Using global climate models, we determine that human‐driven climate change increased the probability of experiencing such high temperatures in 2019, and that the likelihood of similar or more extreme events will increase into the coming century. Key Points The presence of anthropogenic radiative forcing increased the likelihood of the 2019 extreme heat event by as much as 6% The rate of occurrence of such an extreme heat event is likely to substantially increase in the coming decades By the 2060s simulations suggest that such an extreme heat event could occur almost every other year, moving from a rare to a common event

University students are a critical group for vaccination programmes against COVID-19, meningococcal disease (MenACWY) and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR). We aimed to evaluate risk factors for vaccine hesitancy and views about on-campus vaccine delivery among university students. Data were obtained through a cross-sectional anonymous online questionnaire study of undergraduate students in June 2021 and analysed by univariate and multivariate tests to detect associations. Complete data were obtained from 827 participants (7.6% response-rate). Self-reporting of COVID-19 vaccine status indicated uptake by two-thirds (64%; 527/827), willing for 23% (194/827), refusal by 5% (40/827) and uncertain results for 8% (66/827). Hesitancy for COVID-19 vaccines was 5% (40/761). COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was associated with Black ethnicity (aOR, 7.01, 95% CI, 1.8–27.3) and concerns about vaccine side-effects (aOR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.23–2.39). Uncertainty about vaccine status was frequently observed for MMR (11%) and MenACWY (26%) vaccines. Campus-associated COVID-19 vaccine campaigns were favoured by UK-based students (definitely, 45%; somewhat, 16%) and UK-based international students (definitely, 62%; somewhat, 12%). Limitations of this study were use of use of a cross-sectional approach, self-selection of the response cohort, slight biases in the demographics and a strict definition of vaccine hesitancy. Vaccine hesitancy and uncertainty about vaccine status are concerns for effective vaccine programmes. Extending capabilities of digital platforms for accessing vaccine information and sector-wide implementation of on-campus vaccine delivery are strategies for improving vaccine uptake among students. Future studies of vaccine hesitancy among students should aim to extend our observations to student populations in a wider range of university settings and with broader definitions of vaccine hesitancy.

Critical agency (CA) refers to an individual’s feeling of power in relation to social inequalities. Research has demonstrated that high CA is associated with positive adolescent outcomes, however, less is known about what supports are important for its development. Moreover, a large majority of the literature is based on studies from the US and various countries in Africa; although the UK is saturated with inequalities there is little research within a UK context. In this paper we examine (a) the validity of using an existing measure of CA with a sample of UK adolescents and (b) the extent to which resilience supports account for variance in CA. Our analysis identified two distinct factors of CA: justice-oriented and community-oriented. High CA in both factors was explained by resilience supports associated with peer relationships (p < 0.01). Our findings push us towards new relational, ecological ways of understanding adolescent CA. We close by instantiating a translational framework for those devising policies in support of youth resilience and CA.

Previous research has consistently demonstrated that individual differences in prosodic competence (i.e., an individual’s sensitivity to and awareness of prosodic cues) are positively associated with reading comprehension (e.g., Chung & Bidelman, 2021; Holliman, Williams, et al., 2014; Lochrin et al., 2015; Veenendaal et al., 2014). It is less clear, however, whether this relationship between prosodic competence and reading comprehension is simply due to the role of prosody in the many lower level skills involved in efficient word reading, or, whether well-developed prosodic competence facilitates reading comprehension at a higher level. Accordingly, one of the hypotheses proposed in this thesis is that prosodic competence facilitates reading comprehension at the passage level by allowing for prosodic passage reading (i.e., the ability to read a passage with appropriate prosody).This thesis describes three empirical studies designed to examine the concurrent relationships between prosodic competence, prosodic passage reading, and reading comprehension in two samples of participants: experienced readers (adults) and early readers (children ages 7- to 11-years-old). Specifically, analyses were used to investigate (a) whether performance on prosodic competence tasks explained unique variance in passage reading (prosodic reading and comprehension) after accounting for word-level reading skills (e.g., vocabulary, segmental PA, and single word reading), (b) whether prosodic passage reading ability explained unique variance in reading comprehension, after accounting for word-level reading skills, and (c) whether prosodic passage reading ability explained the contribution of prosodic competence to reading comprehension.Results demonstrated that prosodic competence did not account for additional variance in reading comprehension, after controlling for word-level reading skills in either sample of readers. Consequently, there was no evidence that prosodic passage reading mediated the relationship between prosodic competence and reading comprehension. However, results did reveal that the role of prosody in relation to passage reading was markedly different between experienced and early readers. To illustrate, prosodic competence accounted for unique variance in prosodic passage reading (after accounting for all word-level reading skills), but exclusively in the samples of experienced readers — suggesting that prosodic competence likely facilitates prosodic passage reading, but only after a certain level of reading efficiency has been achieved. On the other hand, prosodic passage reading accounted for unique variance in reading comprehension (after accounting for all word-level reading skills), exclusively in the sample of early readers — suggesting that prosodic passage reading likely acts as a comprehension tool, but only during reading development. Accordingly, I argue that prosody should be integrated into future frameworks of reading comprehension, but that a developmental approach, which considers the changing role of prosody, is necessary. I also maintain that these results support the incorporation of prosodic passage reading in early literacy curricula.