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62 result(s) for "Weiler, Eva"
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Towards a Fully Automated Pipeline for Short-term Forecasting of In Situ Coronal Mass Ejection Magnetic Field Structure
We present the automated pipeline NEXUS (Near-real-time Event detection and eXtrapolation using a Unified Space weather pipeline) for operational short-term forecasting of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic field structure at L1, coupling arrival time prediction, in situ detection, and iterative flux rope reconstruction, following near-real-time remote-sensing CME identification. Triggered by entries in the CCMC DONKI database, NEXUS first applies the drag-based ELEvo model to determine whether an Earth impact is expected and estimates arrival time. This defines a temporal window for detecting the magnetic obstacle (MO) in real-time L1 in situ solar wind data, using the deep learning model ARCANE. Upon MO onset, iterative reconstructions with the semi-empirical flux rope model 3DCORE are performed, using a Monte Carlo fitting scheme, producing continuously updated forecasts of the remaining magnetic field profile. We evaluate NEXUS using 3870 archived DONKI entries and NOAA real-time in situ data from 2013–2025, assessing forecast performance at different stages of MO observation. For 61 events with an associated counterpart in the ICMECAT catalog, forecasts based on initial MO data already achieve performance comparable to full-event reconstructions. Typical errors are ∼5 hr in timing of magnetic field extrema and ∼10 nT in field strength metrics, with limited systematic improvement as more of the event is observed. Results show substantial event-to-event variability and systematic underestimation of extrema, indicating deviations from ideal flux rope assumptions. These findings demonstrate the potential of fully autonomous real-time forecasting while highlighting limitations imposed by event complexity and model constraints.
Flux Rope Modeling of the 2022 September 5 Coronal Mass Ejection Observed by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter from 0.07 to 0.69 au
As both Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) reach heliocentric distances closer to the Sun, they present an exciting opportunity to study the structure of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the inner heliosphere. We present an analysis of the global flux rope structure of the 2022 September 5 CME event that impacted PSP at a heliocentric distance of only 0.07 au and SolO at 0.69 au. We compare in situ measurements at PSP and SolO to determine global and local expansion measures, finding a good agreement between magnetic field relationships with heliocentric distance, but significant differences with respect to flux rope size. We use PSP/Wide-Field Imager for Solar Probe images as input to the ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager data (or ELEvoHI), providing a direct link between remote and in situ observations; we find a large discrepancy between the resulting modeled arrival times, suggesting that the underlying model assumptions may not be suitable when using data obtained close to the Sun, where the drag regime is markedly different in comparison to larger heliocentric distances. Finally, we fit the SolO's magnetometer and PSP's FIELDS data independently with the 3D Coronal ROpe Ejection (or 3DCORE) model, and find that many parameters are consistent between spacecraft. However, challenges are apparent when reconstructing a global 3D structure that aligns with arrival times at PSP and SolO, likely due to the large radial and longitudinal separations between spacecraft. From our model results, it is clear the solar wind background speed and drag regime strongly affect the modeled expansion and propagation of CMEs and need to be taken into consideration.
On the Magnetic Field Evolution of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections from 0.07 to 5.4 au
A central question for understanding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) physics and improving space weather forecasting is how ICMEs evolve in interplanetary space. We have updated one of the most comprehensive in situ ICME catalogs to date, which now includes 1976 events from 11 space missions covering over 34 yr, from 1990 December to 2025 August. We have combined existing catalogs including magnetic obstacles (MOs) and identified and added boundaries of an additional 807 (40.8%) events. With this catalog, we demonstrate the most extensive analysis to date of total ICME magnetic field values as a function of heliocentric distance. Parker Solar Probe has observed six ICMEs at <0.23 au (until 2025 April), and Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo have added more events near 0.3 au, bridging the major observational gap towards the solar corona. Our main result is that a single power law can describe the evolution of the mean total magnetic field (exponent value of k = −1.57) and maximum field (k = −1.53) for ICMEs with MOs, from 0.07 to 5.4 au. Extending the power law to the solar photosphere reveals a strong inconsistency with magnetic field magnitudes observed in the quiet Sun and active regions by 2 and 4 orders of magnitude, respectively. We introduce a multipole-type power law with two exponents, k1 = −1.57, and k2 = −6, relating the ICME magnetic field magnitude to an average solar active region field strength. These results present important observational constraints for the evolution of ICMEs from the Sun to the heliosphere.
Solar Wind Heating near the Sun: A Radial Evolution Approach
Characterizing the plasma state in the near-Sun environment is essential to constrain the mechanisms that heat and accelerate the solar wind. In this study, we use Parker Solar Probe observations from Encounters 1 through 24 to investigate the radial evolution of solar wind plasma and magnetic field properties in this region. Using intervals with high field-of-view (>85%) coverage, we derive the radial profiles of magnetic field strength (∣B∣), proton density (N), bulk speed (V), total proton temperature (T), parallel (T∥) and perpendicular (T⊥) temperatures, temperature anisotropy (T⊥/T∥), plasma beta (β), Alfvén Mach number (MA), and magnetic field fluctuations (δB/B) for sub and super-Alfvénic regions. In super-Alfvénic regions, power laws of ∣B∣, N, V, and T as a function of the heliocentric distance are broadly consistent with previous Helios results at >0.3 au. The radial evolution of the components of the temperature tensor reveals distinct behavior: T⊥decreases monotonically with distance, whereas T∥ exhibits a nonmonotonic trend—decreasing in the sub-Alfvénic region, increasing just beyond the Alfvén surface. We interpret the increase in T∥ as a proxy for proton beam occurrence. We further examine the evolution of magnetic field fluctuations, finding decreasing radial/parallel fluctuations but enhanced tangential/normal/perpendicular fluctuations in the sunward direction. These fluctuations may provide free energy for beam generation and particle heating via wave–particle interactions.
The Need for a Sub‐L1 Space Weather Research Mission: Current Knowledge Gaps on Coronal Mass Ejections
Over the past decades, missions at the L1 point have been providing solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements that are necessary for forecasting space weather at Earth with high accuracy and a lead time of a few tens of minutes. Improving the lead time, while maintaining a relatively high level of accuracy, can be achieved with missions sunward of L1, so‐called sub‐L1 monitors. However, too much is unknown to plan for sub‐L1 monitors as operational missions: both the orbital requirements of such missions, and the achievable accuracy of forecasts based on their measurements have not been quantitatively defined. We review here some proposed mission concepts and explain the knowledge gaps related to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that require a space weather research or science mission. We first show how STEREO‐A measurements in 2023 can be used as a proof of concept of the use of sub‐L1 monitor slightly off the Sun‐Earth line to forecast the Dst index. We then highlight that separations of ≲10°$\\lesssim 10{}^{\\circ}$are needed to ensure that CMEs measured by a sub‐L1 monitor impact Earth. Next, we show that measurements with angular separations of ≲0.35°$\\lesssim 0.35{}^{\\circ}$have negligible errors but separations of a few degrees can result in significant errors in lead time and in the forecasted magnetic field strength of CMEs. We also discuss how CME evolution over the last 0.05–0.2 au before impacting Earth is strongly under‐constrained and needs to be better understood before using measurements of sub‐L1 monitors for real‐time space weather forecasting.
International development and implementation of a core measurement set for research and audit studies in implant-based breast reconstruction: a study protocol
IntroductionOutcome reporting in research studies of breast reconstruction is inconsistent and lacks standardisation. The results of individual studies therefore cannot be meaningfully compared or combined limiting their value. A core outcome set (COS) has been developed to address these issues and identified 11 key outcomes to be measured and reported in all future research and audit studies in reconstructive breast surgery (RBS). A COS represents what key outcomes should be measured. The next step is to determine how and when this should be done. The aim of this study is to develop a core measurement set (CMS) for use in research and audit studies in implant-based breast reconstruction.Methods and analysisThe CMS will be developed in accordance with the guidance developed by the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials initiative (COMET) and COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) group for the selection of outcome measurement instruments (OMIs) for relevant outcome domains included in the RBS COS. This will involve three phases with strategies to promote implementation as a final additional phase. The phases are (1) conceptual considerations in which the target population, procedures and settings are defined; (2) systematic reviews to identify existing clinical, patient-reported and cosmetic OMIs and, if appropriate, assess their quality using COSMIN methodology; (3) a modified Delphi process including sequential Delphi surveys involving approximately 100 healthcare professionals and a face to face consensus meeting to agree and ratify which outcome definitions and OMIs should be used and standardised time points for assessment; (4) strategies to promote dissemination and adoption of the CMS.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been granted by University of Bristol Faculty Research Ethics Committee FREC ID 60221. Dissemination strategies will include scientific meeting presentations and peer-reviewed journal publications. Implementation activities will include engagement with journal editors and funders to promote uptake and use of the CMS.
Vom Gemeinbesitz zum Privateigentum? Warum die Theorien der Aufklärung aus dem ursprünglichen Gemeinbesitz nicht zum Gemeineigentum kommen und unter welchen methodischen Bedingungen sich das ändern ließe
In den letzten Jahren wächst die Zahl der eigentums- und herrschaftskritischen Ansätze, die für eine gemeineigentumsbasierte Lebensweise und politische Selbstverwaltung argumentieren. Entgegen der ursprünglichen Intention kontraktualistischer Theorien, so das Urteil, führen Privateigentum und der es schützende Staat zur Verfestigung von Ungleichheit und Abhängigkeit, und verhindern die politische Gestaltung der geteilten Welt. Dabei sind es gerade die Naturzustandstheorien, die die Idee einer geteilten Welt in den Fokus rücken: Ausgehend von den Erfahrungen der Kämpfe um Land und Ressourcen in ihren eigenen Gesellschaften und in den Kolonien, konzipieren die Autoren der Aufklärung die Erde als ‚ursprünglichen Gemeinbesitz‘, auf den ursprünglich keiner mehr Recht hat als ein anderer. In diesem Beitrag werde ich der Frage nachgehen, warum selbstverwaltete politische und Eigentumsstrukturen dabei dennoch kaum eine Rolle spielen, und ob sich das notwendig aus der Idee des Naturzustands ergibt.
Vom Gemeinbesitz zum Privateigentum? Warum die Theorien der Aufklärung aus dem ursprünglichen Gemeinbesitz nicht zum Gemeineigentum kommen und unter welchen methodischen Bedingungen sich das ändern ließe (online first)
In den letzten Jahren wächst die Zahl der eigentums- und herrschaftskritischen Ansätze, die für eine gemeineigentumsbasierte Lebensweise und politische Selbstverwaltung argumentieren. Entgegen der ursprünglichen Intention kontraktualistischer Theorien, so das Urteil, führen Privateigentum und der es schützende Staat zur Verfestigung von Ungleichheit und Abhängigkeit, und verhindern die politische Gestaltung der geteilten Welt. Dabei sind es gerade die Naturzustandstheorien, die die Idee einer geteilten Welt in den Fokus rücken: Ausgehend von den Erfahrungen der Kämpfe um Land und Ressourcen in ihren eigenen Gesellschaften und in den Kolonien, konzipieren die Autoren der Aufklärung die Erde als ‚ursprünglichen Gemeinbesitz‘, auf den ursprünglich keiner mehr Recht hat als ein anderer. In diesem Beitrag werde ich der Frage nachgehen, warum selbstverwaltete politische und Eigentumsstrukturen dabei dennoch kaum eine Rolle spielen, und ob sich das notwendig aus der Idee des Naturzustands ergibt.
Outcomes following high- versus low-volume fat transfer following breast reconstruction and conservation—the Canniesburn Experience
Background Fat transfer is increasingly being used following oncological breast surgery to improve contour irregularities, provide symmetry and treat radiotherapy changes. Our study aims to compare patients receiving high-volume (HV) (> 200 mls of fat transferred in one session) versus low-volume (LV) (< 200 mls fat transferred per session) fat transfer to determine differences in outcomes using these two approaches. Methods A retrospective review was performed for patients undergoing lipomodelling for breast reconstruction from 2005 to 2018. Data collected included patient demographics, type of reconstruction, number of lipomodelling sessions and volume of aspirate and fat reinjected. The primary endpoints were a comparison of complication rates, need for additional imaging and biopsies and cancer recurrence between the two groups. Secondary endpoints were a subgroup analysis of the patients who had received radiotherapy in each group for the above parameters. Results Two hundred fifty-seven patients underwent 407 episodes of LV and 126 patients underwent 179 episodes of HV fat transfer. Patients were matched for body mass index (BMI), ASA grade and smoking status. The donor site had a higher rate of complications following HV fat transfer (4.47 vs. 1.47%; p  = 0.029*). There were no significant differences in the requirement for additional imaging and biopsies and tumour recurrence between the two groups. Secondary endpoints: No significant differences in recipient site complication rates and need for further imaging and biopsies were noted in patients receiving radiotherapy. Conclusions HV fat transfer was associated with an increased donor site morbidity; however, it is acceptable in suitable patients following radiotherapy. Level of evidence III, therapeutic study
The Need for Near-Earth Multi-Spacecraft Heliospheric Measurements and an Explorer Mission to Investigate Interplanetary Structures and Transients in the Near-Earth Heliosphere
Based on decades of single-spacecraft measurements near 1 au as well as data from heliospheric and planetary missions, multi-spacecraft simultaneous measurements in the inner heliosphere on separations of 0.05–0.2 au are required to close existing gaps in our knowledge of solar wind structures, transients, and energetic particles, especially coronal mass ejections (CMEs), stream interaction regions (SIRs), high speed solar wind streams (HSS), and energetic storm particle (ESP) events. The Mission to Investigate Interplanetary Structures and Transients (MIIST) is a concept for a small multi-spacecraft mission to explore the near-Earth heliosphere on these critical scales. It is designed to advance two goals: (a) to determine the spatiotemporal variations and the variability of solar wind structures, transients, and energetic particle fluxes in near-Earth interplanetary (IP) space, and (b) to advance our fundamental knowledge necessary to improve space weather forecasting from in situ data. We present the scientific rationale for this proposed mission, the science requirements, payload, implementation, and concept of mission operation that address a key gap in our knowledge of IP structures and transients within the cost, launch, and schedule limitations of the NASA Heliophysics Small Explorers program.