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32 result(s) for "Weinberger, Kate R."
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The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021
In late June 2021 a heatwave of unprecedented magnitude impacted the Pacific Northwest region of Canada and the United States. Many locations broke all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C, and the Canadian national temperature record was broken by 4.6 °C, with a new record temperature of 49.6 °C. Here, we provide a comprehensive summary of this event and its impacts. Upstream diabatic heating played a key role in the magnitude of this anomaly. Weather forecasts provided advanced notice of the event, while sub-seasonal forecasts showed an increased likelihood of a heat extreme with lead times of 10-20 days. The impacts of this event were catastrophic, including hundreds of attributable deaths across the Pacific Northwest, mass-mortalities of marine life, reduced crop and fruit yields, river flooding from rapid snow and glacier melt, and a substantial increase in wildfires—the latter contributing to landslides in the months following. These impacts provide examples we can learn from and a vivid depiction of how climate change can be so devastating. The 2021 unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave broke temperature records by extraordinary amounts. Impacts included hundreds of deaths, mass-mortalities of marine life, increased wildfires, reduced crop and fruit yields, and river flooding.
Ambient heat and risks of emergency department visits among adults in the United States: time stratified case crossover study
AbstractObjectiveTo quantify the association between ambient heat and visits to the emergency department (ED) for any cause and for cause specific conditions in the conterminous United States among adults with health insurance.DesignTime stratified case crossover analyses with distributed lag non-linear models.SettingUS nationwide administrative healthcare claims database.ParticipantsAll commercial and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries (74.2 million) aged 18 years and older between May and September 2010 to 2019.Main outcome measuresDaily rates of ED visits for any cause, heat related illness, renal disease, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental disorders based on discharge diagnosis codes.Results21 996 670 ED visits were recorded among adults with health insurance living in 2939 US counties. Days of extreme heat—defined as the 95th centile of the local warm season (May through September) temperature distribution (at 34.4°C v 14.9°C national average level)—were associated with a 7.8% (95% confidence interval 7.3% to 8.2%) excess relative risk of ED visits for any cause, 66.3% (60.2% to 72.7%) for heat related illness, 30.4% (23.4% to 37.8%) for renal disease, and 7.9% (5.2% to 10.7%) for mental disorders. Days of extreme heat were associated with an excess absolute risk of ED visits for heat related illness of 24.3 (95% confidence interval 22.9 to 25.7) per 100 000 people at risk per day. Heat was not associated with a higher risk of ED visits for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. Associations were more pronounced among men and in counties in the north east of the US or with a continental climate.ConclusionsAmong both younger and older adults, days of extreme heat are associated with a higher risk of ED visits for any cause, heat related illness, renal disease, and mental disorders. These results suggest that the adverse health effects of extreme heat are not limited to older adults and carry important implications for the health of adults across the age spectrum.
Survey of extreme heat public health preparedness plans and response activities in the most populous jurisdictions in the United States
Background Increasingly frequent and intense extreme heat events (EHEs) are indicative of climate change impacts, and urban areas’ social and built environments increase their risk for health consequences. Heat action plans (HAPs) are a strategy to bolster municipal EHE preparedness. The objective of this research is to characterize municipal interventions to EHEs and compare U.S. jurisdictions with and without formal heat action plans. Methods An online survey was sent to 99 U.S. jurisdictions with populations > 200,000 between September 2021 and January 2022. Summary statistics were calculated to describe the proportion of total jurisdictions, as well as jurisdictions with and without HAPs and in different geographies that reported engagement in extreme heat preparedness and response activities. Results Thirty-eight (38.4%) jurisdictions responded to the survey. Of those respondents, twenty-three (60.5%) reported the development of a HAP, of which 22 (95.7%) reported plans for opening cooling centers. All respondents reported conducting heat-related risk communications; however, communication approaches focused on passive, technology-dependent mechanisms. While 75.7% of jurisdictions reported having developed a definition for an EHE, less than two-thirds of responding jurisdictions reported any of the following activities: conducting heat-related surveillance (61.1%), implementing provisions for power outages (53.1%), increasing access to fans or air conditioners (48.4%), developing heat vulnerability maps (43.2%), or evaluating activities (34.2%). There were only two statistically significant ( p  ≥ .05) differences in the prevalence of heat-related activities between jurisdictions with and without a written HAP, possibly attributable to a relatively small sample size: surveillance and having a definition of extreme heat. Conclusions Jurisdictions can strengthen their extreme heat preparedness by expanding their consideration of at-risk populations to include communities of color, conducting formal evaluations of their responses, and by bridging the gap between the populations determined to be most at-risk and the channels of communication designed to reach them.
Heat-related illness among workers in British Columbia, Canada: Extreme hot weather in 2021 compared to 2001–2020
OBJECTIVES: British Columbia (BC), Canada, experienced an unprecedented summer with record-breaking high temperatures in 2021. Yet the health impact has not been examined in occupational settings. This study aimed to characterize occupational heat-related illness (HRI) among BC workers estimated by incidence rates and associations between heatwaves and HRI, compare risks from 2021 and prior summers of 2001–2020, and assess differential impacts on worker groups by demographics and occupations. METHODS: We identified HRI from workers’ compensation claims that occurred between June and August from 2001–2021 in BC. Incidence rates were calculated using working population estimates from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. A time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional Poisson regression was used to examine the impact of heatwaves on occupational HRI. All analyses were stratified by year (2021 versus 2001–2020), age, sex, and occupation. RESULTS: Of the 521 claims identified, 107 (21%) occurred in 2021. Incidence rates for 2021 and prior summers were 3.97 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.26–4.80] and 0.93 (95% CI 0.85–1.03) claims per 100 000 workers, respectively. This difference represents a 327% increase. Rates were higher in health occupations in 2021 versus 2001–2020. During 2001–2021, the risk of HRI during heatwave days was 4.33 (95% CI 2.98–6.27) times that during non-heatwave days, and the risk was higher among middle-aged workers and workers in trades, transport, and equipment operations. The 2021 heatwaves had greater impact on younger and female workers than those from prior summers. CONCLUSIONS: Heat is a crucial workplace hazard. Prevention strategies should prioritize at-risk workers and not be limited to heatwaves.
Estimates of Present and Future Asthma Emergency Department Visits Associated With Exposure to Oak, Birch, and Grass Pollen in the United States
Pollen is an important environmental cause of allergic asthma episodes. Prior work has established a proof of concept for assessing projected climate change impacts on future oak pollen exposure and associated health impacts. This paper uses additional monitor data and epidemiologic functions to extend prior analyses, reporting new estimates of the current and projected future health burden of oak, birch, and grass pollen across the contiguous United States. Our results suggest that tree pollen in the spring currently accounts for between 25,000 and 50,000 pollen‐related asthma emergency department (ED) visits annually (95% confidence interval: 14,000 to 100,000), roughly two thirds of which occur among people under age 18. Grass pollen in the summer season currently accounts for less than 10,000 cases annually (95% confidence interval: 4,000 to 16,000). Compared to a baseline with 21st century population growth but constant pollen, future temperature and precipitation show an increase in ED visits of 14% in 2090 for a higher greenhouse gas emissions scenario, but only 8% for a moderate emissions scenario, reflecting projected increases in pollen season length. Grass pollen, which is more sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, is a primary contributor to future ED visits, with the largest effects in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern Great Plains regions. More complete assessment of the current and future health burden of pollen is limited by the availability of data on pollen types (e.g., ragweed), other health effects (e.g., other respiratory disease), and economic consequences (e.g., medication costs). Key Points We link pollen, climate, and epidemiological data to estimate the health burden of oak, birch, and grass pollen across the contiguous United States We found that 35,000 to 60,000 asthma emergency department visits (two thirds of these among children) may be linked with pollen each year We project that future climate changes could increase pollen‐related asthma emergency department visits by 14% in 2090
Suitability of gridded climate datasets for use in environmental epidemiology
Epidemiologic analyses of the health effects of meteorological exposures typically rely on observations from the nearest weather station to assess exposure for geographically diverse populations. Gridded climate datasets (GCD) provide spatially resolved weather data that may offer improved exposure estimates, but have not been systematically validated for use in epidemiologic evaluations. As a validation, we linearly regressed daily weather estimates from two GCDs, PRISM and Daymet, to observations from a sample of weather stations across the conterminous United States and compared spatially resolved, population-weighted county average temperatures and heat indices from PRISM to single-pixel PRISM values at the weather stations to identify differences. We found that both Daymet and PRISM accurately estimate ambient temperature and mean heat index at sampled weather stations, but PRISM outperforms Daymet for assessments of humidity and maximum daily heat index. Moreover, spatially-resolved exposure estimates differ from point-based assessments, but with substantial inter-county heterogeneity. We conclude that GCDs offer a potentially useful approach to exposure assessment of meteorological variables that may, in some locations, reduce exposure measurement error, as well as permit assessment of populations distributed far from weather stations.
Warm Season and Emergency Department Visits to U.S. Children’s Hospitals
Extreme heat exposures are increasing with climate change. Health effects are well documented in adults, but the risks to children are not well characterized. We estimated the association between warm season (May to September) temperatures and cause-specific emergency department (ED) visits among U.S. children and adolescents. This multicenter time-series study leveraged administrative data on ED visits by children and adolescents of age to the EDs of 47 U.S. children's hospitals from May to September from 2016 to 2018. Daily maximum ambient temperature was estimated in the county of the hospital using a spatiotemporal model. We used distributed-lag nonlinear models with a quasi-Poisson distribution to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and the relative risk (RR) of ED visits, adjusting for temporal trends. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the overall cumulative association. Extreme heat was associated with an RR of all-cause ED visits of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.21) relative to hospital-specific minimum morbidity temperature. Associations were more pronounced for ED visits due to heat-related illness including dehydration and electrolyte disorders ( 1.83; 95% CI: 1.31, 2.57), bacterial enteritis (1.35; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.79), and otitis media and externa (1.30; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.52). Taken together, temperatures above the minimum morbidity temperature accounted for an estimated 11.8% [95% empirical 95% confidence interval (eCI): 9.9%, 13.3%] of warm season ED visits for any cause and 31.0% (95% eCI: 17.9%, 36.5%) of ED visits for heat-related illnesses. During the warm season, days with higher temperatures were associated with higher rates of visits to children's hospital EDs. Higher ambient temperatures may contribute to a significant proportion of ED visits among U.S. children and adolescents. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8083.
Increasing Health Risks During Outdoor Sports Due To Climate Change in Texas: Projections Versus Attitudes
Extreme heat is a recognized threat to human health. This study examines projected future trends of multiple measures of extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century, and evaluates the expected climate changes alongside Texas athletic staff (coach and athletic trainer) attitudes toward heat and climate change. Numerical climate simulations from the recently published Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to predict changes in summer temperatures, heat indices, and wet bulb temperatures across Texas and also within specific metropolitan areas. A survey examining attitudes toward the effects of climate change on athletic programs and student athlete health was also distributed to high‐school and university athletic staff. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid‐to‐late 21st century. Survey results reveal a general understanding and acceptance of climate change and a need for adjustments in accordance with more dangerous heat‐related events. However, a portion of athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health and their athletic programs. Enhancing climate change and health communication across the state may initiate important changes to athletic programs (e.g., timing, duration, intensity, and location of practices), which should be made in accordance with increasingly dangerous temperatures and weather conditions. This work employs a novel interdisciplinary approach to evaluate future heat projections alongside attitudes from athletic communities toward climate change. Plain Language Summary Heat extremes are dangerous for humans, and anthropogenic climate change is making extreme heat events more frequent over time. Future changes in extreme heat may prove particularly dangerous to athletes who participate in outdoor sports, as they are susceptible to exertional heat illness (EHI). This study was spearheaded by a team of undergraduate students at Rice University who were interested in how extreme heat events might impact athletics across the state of Texas. We surveyed hundreds of athletic staff at Texas colleges and high schools to assess their awareness of future heat risks to student athlete health. We compared survey results to climate model projections of summer temperatures and indices like heat index and wet bulb temperatures (variables which consider humidity as well as temperature) across Texas throughout the next century. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what the National Weather Service considers safe for outdoor sports by the mid‐21st century. Despite the clear trend toward increasingly dangerous hot weather conditions, some athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health. Climate change communication is needed to initiate changes to athletic programs and reduce the risk of EHIs for athletes in Texas. Key Points This study examines projected trends in extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century from Community Earth System Model version 2 alongside a survey of athletic staff Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid‐to‐late 21st century While most athletic staff acknowledge the need for changes to prevent heat‐related illness in student athletes, a smaller portion still do not
Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change
Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof‐of‐concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present‐day and climate‐induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994–2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration‐response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000–35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at$10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $ 10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen‐related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen‐related health impacts. Key Points Aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden Climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence Mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen‐related health impacts
Ambient Temperature and Markers of Fetal Growth: A Retrospective Observational Study of 29 Million U.S. Singleton Births
Emerging studies suggest that ambient temperature during pregnancy may be associated with fetal growth, but the existing evidence is limited and inconsistent. We aimed to evaluate the association of trimester-specific temperature with risk of being born small for gestational age (SGA) and birth weight-markers of fetal growth-among term births in the contiguous United States. We included data on 29,597,735 live singleton births between 1989 and 2002 across 403 U.S. counties. We estimated daily county-level population-weighted mean temperature using a spatially refined gridded climate data set. We used logistic regression to estimate the association between trimester-specific temperature and risk of SGA and linear regression to evaluate the association between trimester-specific temperature and term birth weight z-score, adjusting for parity, maternal demographics, smoking or drinking during pregnancy, chronic hypertension, and year and month of conception. We then pooled results overall and by geographic regions and climate zones. High ambient temperatures ([Formula: see text] percentile) during the entire pregnancy were associated with higher risk of term SGA {odds ratio [OR] [Formula: see text] 1.041 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.029, 1.054]} and lower term birth weight [standardized to [Formula: see text] (95% CI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) reduction in birth weight for infants born at 40 weeks of gestation]. Low temperatures ([Formula: see text] percentile) during the entire pregnancy were not associated with SGA [OR [Formula: see text] 1.003 (95% CI: 0.991, 1.015)] but were associated with a small decrement in term birth weight [standardized to [Formula: see text] (95% CI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text])]. Risks of term SGA and birth weight were more strongly associated with temperature averaged across the second and third trimesters, in areas the Northeast, and in areas with cold or very cold climates. Above-average temperatures during pregnancy were associated with lower fetal growth. Our findings provide evidence that temperature may be a novel risk factor for reduced fetal growth. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4648.