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Weather prediction is critical for a range of human activities, including transportation, agriculture and industry, as well as for the safety of the general public. Machine learning transforms numerical weather prediction (NWP) by replacing the numerical solver with neural networks, improving the speed and accuracy of the forecasting component of the prediction pipeline 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 – 6 . However, current models rely on numerical systems at initialization and to produce local forecasts, thereby limiting their achievable gains. Here we show that a single machine learning model can replace the entire NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests observations and produces global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. The global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for several variables and lead times. The local station forecasts are skilful for up to ten days of lead time, competing with a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. End-to-end tuning further improves the accuracy of local forecasts. Our results show that skilful forecasting is possible without relying on NWP at deployment time, which will enable the realization of the full speed and accuracy benefits of data-driven models. We believe that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end models that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid, affordable creation of customized models for a range of end users. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end machine learning model, replaces the entire numerical weather prediction pipeline with a machine learning model, by producing accurate global and local forecasts without relying on numerical solvers, revolutionizing weather prediction with improved speed, accuracy and customization capabilities.

An updated global bathymetry and topography grid is presented using a spatial sampling interval of 15 arc sec. The bathymetry is produced using a combination of shipboard soundings and depths predicted using satellite altimetry. New data consists of >33.6 million multibeam and singlebeam measurements collated by several institutions, namely, the National Geospatial‐Intelligence Agency, Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology, Geoscience Australia, Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. New altimetry data consists of 48, 14, and 12 months of retracked range measurements from Cryosat‐2, SARAL/AltiKa, and Jason‐2, respectively. With respect to SRTM15_PLUS (Olson et al.,), the inclusion of these new data results in a ∼1.4‐km improvement in the minimum wavelength recovered for sea surface free‐air gravity anomalies, a small increase in the accuracy of altimetrically derived predicted depths, and a 1.24% increase, from 9.60% to 10.84%, in the total area of ocean floor that is constrained by shipboard soundings at 15‐arc sec resolution. Bathymetric grid cells constrained by satellite altimetry have estimated uncertainties of ±150 m in the deep oceans and ±180 m between coastlines and the continental rise. Onshore, topography data are sourced from previously published digital elevation models, predominately SRTM‐CGIAR V4.1 between 60°N and 60°S. ArcticDEM is used above 60°N, while Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica is used below 62°S. Auxiliary grids illustrating shipboard data coverage, marine free‐air gravity anomalies, and vertical gradient gradients are also provided in common data formats. Key Points An updated global elevation grid is presented using a spatial sampling interval of 15 arc sec New bathymetry data include more than 33.6 million ship soundings and more than 6 years of non‐repeat altimetry measurements The percentage of seafloor mapped by echo soundings remains low; our current compilation covers only 10.84% at 15‐arc sec resolution

Reliable forecasting of the Earth system is essential for mitigating natural disasters and supporting human progress. Traditional numerical models, although powerful, are extremely computationally expensive 1 . Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have shown promise in improving both predictive performance and efficiency 2 , 3 , yet their potential remains underexplored in many Earth system domains. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model trained on more than one million hours of diverse geophysical data. Aurora outperforms operational forecasts in predicting air quality, ocean waves, tropical cyclone tracks and high-resolution weather, all at orders of magnitude lower computational cost. With the ability to be fine-tuned for diverse applications at modest expense, Aurora represents a notable step towards democratizing accurate and efficient Earth system predictions. These results highlight the transformative potential of AI in environmental forecasting and pave the way for broader accessibility to high-quality climate and weather information. Aurora, a new large-scale foundation model trained on more than one million hours of diverse geophysical data, outperforms operational forecasts in predicting air quality, ocean wave dynamics, tropical cyclone tracks and high-resolution weather.

Seamount trails created by mantle plumes are often used to establish absolute reference frames for plate motion. When plume drift is considered, changes in seamount trail direction and age progression cannot be attributed to plate motion change alone. Here, improvements to age‐progressive models of eleven Pacific hotspot chains are made independently of plate motion models. Our approach involves bathymetry processing to robustly predict a smooth, continuous hotspot path by connecting maxima in filtered seamount bathymetry, with across‐track uncertainties from seamount trail width and amplitude. Published ages from seamount samples are projected orthogonally onto these paths. We determine best‐fit models of age as functions of along‐track distance, giving continuous age‐progression models for each seamount chain with uncertainties in age and geometry. Different sources of paleolatitudes are examined by incorporating data from the magnetization of seamount drill‐core samples, paleo‐poles from marine magnetic anomaly skewness inversions, and paleo‐spin‐axes inferred from shifts of equatorial sediments. Improved paleolatitude models for the Hawaiian‐Emperor and Louisville chains are determined by combining these different types of data. Paleolatitude models are predicted for other chains during periods when sufficient amounts of paleo‐pole or paleo‐spin‐axis data are available. Analysis of the eleven Pacific seamount chains provide constraints for future plate and plume motion models. We analyze the temporal change in distance between coeval seamounts, reflecting relative drifts between the hotspots at different times in the past. The observed changes imply systematic relative hotspot drifts compatible with paleolatitude trends. Plain Language Summary The Pacific Ocean is home to many volcanic island chains, including the well known Hawaiian Islands. Looking beneath the ocean surface these islands continue as a chain of extinct underwater volcanoes, known as seamounts, found by mapping the seafloor. What creates chains of volcanoes is the movement of Earth's crust over a focused region of volcanic activity called a hotspot, which originates beneath the crust. With hotspots first thought to be fixed, these seamount chain geometries have been used to determine past motions of the moving plates. However, these hotspots are now believed to have movement of their own, complicating their use in determining past plate motions. For this study, we are compiling the most recent and available data from eleven seamount chains in the Pacific region and developing new methods to better analyze these data. This information will be used to improve predictions of past plate motions while accounting for the motion of the hotspots themselves, as well as making other inferences related to relative plume motions and along‐track variability due to plume deflection. Key Points Self‐consistent and robust compilation of eleven Pacific hotspot trail geometries, age progressions, and paleolatitudes Significant relative hotspot drift determined for both Late Cretaceous and Late Neogene Combined paleolatitude analysis from three sources supports significant interhotspot drift trends

Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) is a well‐known set of software originally developed for geosciences, allowing scientists in climate and solid earth disciplines to routinely create publish‐ready maps and graphics. However, GMT users rarely make animations despite their undeniable benefit for understanding and teaching dynamic processes. As reading habits shift from print to digital, capitalizing on animations for illustrating scientific concepts is more accessible than ever. In the latest GMT version (6.5), we have added and refined the movie‐making modules, alleviating the time‐consuming steps that would hinder GMT users from making such animations. In this paper, we will explain how GMT's “movie” module works and provide six representative examples, from basic to more advanced, to show some of its key features. We hope our presentation will encourage the masses to routinely create animations for their publications. Plain Language Summary We live in an era where accessing digital information through all kinds of screens is easily possible. These media allow the display of animations and movies. However, in scientific publications, these formats are scarcely used despite their compatibility with most systems and their clear benefit to illustrate dynamic processes. In this paper, we show how the Generic Mapping Tools software facilitates the creation of animations ranging from simple to complex. With this article, we wish to help and encourage all those involved in scientific outreach to produce pedagogical content that is in tune with the uses of our time. Key Points Dynamic content (like animations) can be critical to show changes in science The Generic Mapping Tools software empowers users to easily create animations by taking over non‐trivial tasks We encourage scientists to routinely create animations when discussing temporal or spatial changes

Tectonic plate and lower-mantle motions are often considered independent. Plate tectonic reconstructions reveal long-lived interactions between mantle plumes and mid-ocean ridges that imply feedback between plate boundaries and the deep mantle. Plate tectonic motions are commonly considered to be driven by slab pull at subduction zones and ridge push at mid-ocean ridges, with motion punctuated by plumes of hot material rising from the lower mantle 1 , 2 . Within this model, the geometry and location of mid-ocean ridges are considered to be independent of lower-mantle dynamics, such as deeply sourced plumes that produce voluminous lava eruptions—termed large igneous provinces 2 . Here we use a global plate model 3 to reconstruct the locations of large igneous provinces relative to plumes and mid-ocean ridges at the time they formed. We find that large igneous provinces repeatedly formed at specific locations where mid-ocean ridges and plumes interact. We calculate how much mantle material was converted to oceanic lithosphere at the mid-ocean ridges and find that slowly migrating ridge systems that have been stabilized by upwelling plumes have extracted large volumes of material from the same part of the upper mantle over periods up to 180 million years. The geochemical signatures of mid-ocean ridge basalts and seismic tomographic data show that upper-mantle temperatures are elevated at significant distances from ridge–plume interactions, indicating a far-field, indirect influence of plume–ridge interactions on the upper-mantle structure. We conclude that strong feedbacks exist between the dynamics of slowly migrating ridges and deeply sourced plumes.

The Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain is a hotspot-generated intraplate volcanic chain that has yielded key constraints on the rigidity of Earth’s tectonic plates. However, previous studies have shown significant variability in the effective elastic thickness, T e , a proxy for the long-term strength of the lithosphere, along the chain. While low T e (10-20 km) at the Emperor Seamounts and high T e (17-37 km) at the Hawaiian Ridge are expected because of their differences in volcano and plate age, the change between them appears abrupt and occurs in the vicinity of the bend in the chain. To investigate this variability, we estimated T e along 3000 profiles - spaced 2 km apart along the chain - from gravity and flexure modeling, calibrated using constraints from deep seismic experiments carried out in 2018 and 2019. Here we show that, contrary to previous predictions, T e changes gradually along the chain and that weak zones can exist within the interior of a large, otherwise rigid, plate and may, we speculate, facilitate the initiation of intra-oceanic subduction in response, for example, to changes in plate motion and eventually lead to their break-up. Marine geophysical data from the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain reveal a mechanically weak zone within the Pacific plate, characterized by large downward flexures that could act as a nucleation point for future subduction, leading to plate break-up.

By 2018, the City of Cape Town (CCT) suffered a third consecutive year of serious drought. This article investigates the chronology of the drought and the various measures imposed by the city council to preserve dwindling water supplies in an effort to stave off the so-called ‘Day Zero’ scenario when its water reserves would apparently dry up. By means of contemporary sources, water governance sources and other relevant documentation, the trajectory of Cape Town’s water crisis and the political ramifications for its citizens is being investigated. Finally, lessons to be learnt from Cape Town’s dealing with its drought crisis, and other cities that found themselves in similar situations, will be discussed. An analysis of the political fallout and blaming of who should be held responsible for Cape Town’s precarious water situation is also presented. It seems that a combination of factors was responsible for the city’s relative unpreparedness in dealing with the drought: the politically fractured nature of South African multi-tiered government agencies and the lack of an integrated government approach to the drought; the CCT mayor’s unclear and negative communication to rate payers and ineffective water-saving proposals; a fallout between the CCT mayor and her political superiors over the effectiveness of her drought management plans; a dysfunctional, bankrupt and inert national Department of Water and Sanitation; and the expectation that the city’s expenditure on water supply schemes could be put on hold simply by saving the existing supply in the belief that it would remain stable.

An estimated 10-20 million people worldwide are infected with human T cell leukemia virus type 1 (HTLV-1), with endemic areas of infection in Japan, Australia, the Caribbean, and Africa. HTLV-1 is the causative agent of adult T cell leukemia (ATL) and HTLV-1 associated myopathy/tropic spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). HTLV-1 expresses several regulatory and accessory genes that function at different stages of the virus life cycle. The regulatory gene Tax-1 is required for efficient virus replication, as it drives transcription of viral gene products, and has also been demonstrated to play a key role in the pathogenesis of the virus. Several studies have identified a PDZ binding motif (PBM) at the carboxyl terminus of Tax-1 and demonstrated the importance of this domain for HTLV-1 induced cellular transformation. Using a mass spectrometry-based proteomics approach we identified sorting nexin 27 (SNX27) as a novel interacting partner of Tax-1. Further, we demonstrated that their interaction is mediated by the Tax-1 PBM and SNX27 PDZ domains. SNX27 has been shown to promote the plasma membrane localization of glucose transport 1 (GLUT1), one of the receptor molecules of the HTLV-1 virus, and the receptor molecule required for HTLV-1 fusion and entry. We postulated that Tax-1 alters GLUT1 localization via its interaction with SNX27. We demonstrate that over expression of Tax-1 in cells causes a reduction of GLUT1 on the plasma membrane. Furthermore, we show that knockdown of SNX27 results in increased virion release and decreased HTLV-1 infectivity. Collectively, we demonstrate the first known mechanism by which HTLV-1 regulates a receptor molecule post-infection.

Increasing and prolonged droughts have become a feature of the South African environmental landscape. This article investigates the sustainability of water procurement to the town of Beaufort West and the reasons for the town’s water provision crises during the droughts of 2009–2011 and 2017–2019. Emergency measures were implemented to alleviate the serious water shortages during these droughts. Data to illustrate population increases and precipitation decreases, which impacted on the town’s water resources, were collected from census records of Statistics South Africa and the Department of Water and Sanitation, respectively. A number of risk factors contributed to the town’s water crises, for example, unsustainable water extraction at times of serious droughts, poor water monitoring, metering and attention to leakages, an expansion of informal settlements within the municipal boundaries of Beaufort West, as well as annual rainfall patterns that became increasingly unpredictable. The article concludes that water resource development had not kept pace with demand; therefore water infrastructure should be built with enough capacity to cope with regular dry periods. Equilibrium should be reached between the water expectations of the community and the water availability to avoid future social instability in water-stressed towns such as Beaufort West. Rainfall data indicate that precipitation patterns in the arid regions of South Africa are decreasing; therefore the water shortage experience of Beaufort West during the recent droughts serves as a clear and present warning that rural towns in these regions should seek and implement alternative water augmentation strategies timeously.