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Simulation models of tobacco use behavior are useful analytic tools for projecting rates of tobacco use over time and identifying priority areas for intervention. This paper presents the Tobacco Use Individual-level Simulation and Tracking (TwIST) Model, an individual-based simulation model of tobacco use in the adult US population. We describe the model structure, data sources and parameters, and, in addition to future projections, compare modeled estimates of smoking prevalence to those from established surveys. The simulated population and model parameter estimates are informed by the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study and other nationally representative datasets. To simulate tobacco use over time, we estimated 2 nd order Markov models using multinomial logistic regression. To validate the model, we compared model estimates of tobacco use to data from three national surveys. The model estimates adult cigarette smoking rates will decline from a prevalence of 12.4% (95% uncertainty interval (95% UI): 12.2–12.8%) in 2020 to 9.6% (95% UI: 9.3–9.9%), 9.1% (95% UI: 8.9–9.4%), and 8.7% (95% UI: 8.5–9.0%) in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. From 2020 through 2050, adults living in poverty are estimated to have a cigarette smoking rate 2.1–2.3 times higher than individuals living above the poverty line. The prevalence of menthol cigarette use will decline at a slower rate than the prevalence of non-menthol cigarette use (21% vs. 38% decline). Model projections of cigarette smoking prevalence typically fall within the 95% confidence intervals of prevalence estimates across three national surveys. Overall, the TwIST Model projects cigarette smoking prevalence rates that are similar to real-world estimates. If tobacco use continues based on current patterns, income-based disparities in smoking will persist and a growing proportion of individuals who smoke will use menthol cigarettes, which are known to be harder to quit.

PhD-trained scientists are essential contributors to the workforce in diverse employment sectors that include academia, industry, government, and nonprofit organizations. Hence, best practices for training the future biomedical workforce are of national concern. Complementing coursework and laboratory research training, many institutions now offer professional training that enables career exploration and develops a broad set of skills critical to various career paths. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded academic institutions to design innovative programming to enable this professional development through a mechanism known as Broadening Experiences in Scientific Training (BEST). Programming at the NIH BEST awardee institutions included career panels, skill-building workshops, job search workshops, site visits, and internships. Because doctoral training is lengthy and requires focused attention on dissertation research, an initial concern was that students participating in additional complementary training activities might exhibit an increased time to degree or diminished research productivity. Metrics were analyzed from 10 NIH BEST awardee institutions to address this concern, using time to degree and publication records as measures of efficiency and productivity. Comparing doctoral students who participated to those who did not, results revealed that across these diverse academic institutions, there were no differences in time to degree or manuscript output. Our findings support the policy that doctoral students should participate in career and professional development opportunities that are intended to prepare them for a variety of diverse and important careers in the workforce.

Reducing racial/ethnic disparities in smoking is a priority for state tobacco control programs. We investigated disparities in cigarette use by race/ethnicity, as well as trends in cigarette use across racial/ethnic groups from 2011 to 2018 in 50 US states and the District of Columbia. We used data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. In each state, smoking prevalence and corresponding 95% CIs were estimated for each racial/ethnic group in 2011, 2014, and 2018. We used logistic regression models to examine state-specific linear and quadratic time trends in smoking prevalence from 2011 to 2018. Racial/ethnic disparities in smoking prevalence varied across states. From 2011 to 2018, compared with White adults, the odds of smoking were lower among Black adults in 14 states (odds ratio [OR] range, 0.58-0.91) and were higher in 9 states (OR range, 1.10-1.98); no differences were found in the odds of smoking in 13 states. Compared with White adults, the odds of smoking were lower among Hispanic adults in most states (OR range, 0.33-0.84) and were typically higher among Other adults (OR range, 1.19-2.44). Significant interactions between year and race/ethnicity were found in 4 states, indicating that time trends varied across racial/ethnic groups. In states with differential time trends, the decline in the odds of smoking was typically greater among Black, Hispanic, and Other adults compared with White adults. Some progress in reducing racial/ethnic disparities in smoking has been made, but additional efforts are needed to eliminate racial/ethnic disparities in smoking.

To evaluate an eye tracking task as a predictor and outcome measure of treatment response for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) social skills interventions, adolescents and young adults with ASD completed the eye tracking task before, immediately after, and two months after completing Social Cognition and Interaction Training for Autism (SCIT-A). The study compared SCIT-A participants ( n  = 20) to participants with ASD who received treatment as usual (TAU; n  = 21). Overall, increased visual attention to faces and background objects and decreased attention to hands playing with toys at baseline were associated with improved social functioning immediately following intervention, suggesting this eye tracking task may reliably predict ASD social intervention outcomes.

Spatial attention and exploration are related to a predominantly right hemispheric network structure. However, the areas of the brain involved and their exact role is still debated. Spatial neglect following right hemispheric stroke lesions has been frequently viewed as a model to study these processes in humans. Previous investigations on the anatomical basis on spatial neglect predominantly focused on focal brain damage and lesion-behaviour mapping analyses. This approach might not be suited to detect remote areas structurally spared but which might contribute to the behavioural deficit. In the present study of a sample of 203 right hemispheric stroke patients, we combined connectome lesion-symptom mapping with multivariate support vector regression to unravel the complex and disconnected network structure in spatial neglect. We delineated three central nodes that were extensively disconnected from other intrahemispheric areas, namely the right superior parietal lobule, the insula, and the temporal pole. Additionally, the analysis allocated central roles within this network to the inferior frontal gyrus (pars triangularis and opercularis), right middle temporal gyrus, right temporal pole and left and right orbitofrontal cortices, including interhemispheric disconnection. Our results suggest that these structures—although not necessarily directly damaged—might play a role within the network underlying spatial neglect in humans.

Previous lesion behavior studies primarily used univariate lesion behavior mapping techniques to map the anatomical basis of spatial neglect after right brain damage. These studies led to inconsistent results and lively controversies. Given these inconsistencies, the idea of a wide-spread network that might underlie spatial orientation and neglect has been pushed forward. In such case, univariate lesion behavior mapping methods might have been inherently limited in detecting the presumed network due to limited statistical power. By comparing various univariate analyses with multivariate lesion-mapping based on support vector regression, we aimed to validate the network hypothesis directly in a large sample of 203 newly recruited right brain damaged patients. If the exact same correction factors and parameter combinations (FDR correction and dTLVC for lesion size control) were used, both univariate as well as multivariate approaches uncovered the same complex network pattern underlying spatial neglect. At the cortical level, lesion location dominantly affected the temporal cortex and its borders into inferior parietal and occipital cortices. Beyond, frontal and subcortical gray matter regions as well as white matter tracts connecting these regions were affected. Our findings underline the importance of a right network in spatial exploration and attention and specifically in the emergence of the core symptoms of spatial neglect. •We used SVR-LSM and VLBM in 203 right brain damaged patients to examine the lesion-behavior relationship of spatial neglect.•Findings underline the importance of a right complex network pattern underlying the core symptoms of spatial neglect.•Multivariate and univariate lesion analysis techniques might come to the same topographical conclusions.

Underscreening of syphilis in clinical settings is a pervasive problem in resource-constrained settings where heavy patient loads and competing health priorities inhibit health providers' ability to meet screening coverage targets. A \"detection-based\" pay-for-performance (P4P) strategy can incentivize more targeted testing by rewarding providers with a monetary bonus for every confirmed case. Five clinics in a high transmission setting of China participated in the 6-month pilot intervention. Seropositive proportions during the P4P intervention were compared with those during the preintervention phase using multilevel logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex of clinic attendees. There were 8423 patients that sought care at 1 of the 6 clinics over the course of the study. Adjusted odds of a positive syphilis screen were greater during the intervention period compared to the preintervention interval (odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.56). Variability in clinic-level effects was substantial given the small number of sites of this pilot study. Results of this detection-based P4P pilot study demonstrate the feasibility and preliminary effectiveness of this approach for improving syphilis case detection in resource-constrained clinical settings. A fully powered randomized trial is needed to inform the full utility of this approach for improving sexually transmitted disease detection globally.

A study using monetary incentive changes provider behaviors to improve syphilis case detection in a sexually transmitted disease clinic in China. Supplemental digital content is available in the text. Background Underscreening of syphilis in clinical settings is a pervasive problem in resource-constrained settings where heavy patient loads and competing health priorities inhibit health providers' ability to meet screening coverage targets. A \"detection-based\" pay-for-performance (P4P) strategy can incentivize more targeted testing by rewarding providers with a monetary bonus for every confirmed case. Methods Five clinics in a high transmission setting of China participated in the 6-month pilot intervention. Seropositive proportions during the P4P intervention were compared with those during the preintervention phase using multilevel logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex of clinic attendees. Results There were 8423 patients that sought care at 1 of the 6 clinics over the course of the study. Adjusted odds of a positive syphilis screen were greater during the intervention period compared to the preintervention interval (odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.56). Variability in clinic-level effects was substantial given the small number of sites of this pilot study. Conclusions Results of this detection-based P4P pilot study demonstrate the feasibility and preliminary effectiveness of this approach for improving syphilis case detection in resource-constrained clinical settings. A fully powered randomized trial is needed to inform the full utility of this approach for improving sexually transmitted disease detection globally.

Underage drinking continues to be an important public health problem and a challenge to the substance abuse prevention field. Community-based interventions designed to more rigorously control underage access to alcohol through retailer education and greater enforcement of underage drinking laws have been advocated as potentially effective strategies to help address this problem, but studies designed to evaluate such interventions are sparse. To address this issue we conducted a randomized trial involving 36 communities to test the combined effectiveness of five interrelated intervention components designed to reduce underage access to alcohol. The intervention was found to be effective in reducing the likelihood that retail clerks would sell alcohol to underage-looking buyers, but did not reduce underage drinking or the perceived availability of alcohol among high school students. Post hoc analyses, however, revealed significant associations between the level of underage drinking law enforcement in the intervention communities and reductions in both 30-day use of alcohol and binge drinking. The findings highlight the difficulty in reducing youth drinking even when efforts to curtail retail access are successful. Study findings also suggest that high intensity implementation of underage drinking law enforcement can reduce underage drinking. Any such effects of enhanced enforcement on underage drinking appear to be more directly attributable to an increase in perceived likelihood of enforcement and the resultant perceived inconveniences and/or sanctions to potential drinkers, than to a reduction in access to alcohol per se.

Despite multidisciplinary efforts to control the nation's obesity epidemic, obesity has persisted as one of the U.S.'s top public health problems, particularly among African Americans. Innovative approaches to address obesity that are sensitive to the unique issues of African Americans are needed. Thus, a faith-based weight-loss intervention using a community-based participatory research approach was developed, implemented, and evaluated with a rural African American faith community. A two-group, quasi-experimental, delayed intervention design was used, with church as the unit of assignment (treatment n = 2, control n = 2) and individual as the unit of observation (treatment n = 36, control n = 37). Weekly small groups led by trained community members met for 8 weeks and emphasized healthy nutrition, physical activity, and faith's connection with health. The mean weight loss of the treatment group was 3.60 ± 0.64 lbs. compared to the 0.59 ± 0.59-lb loss of the control group.