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Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions.

Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.

Convective cloud systems in the maritime tropics play a critical role in global climate, but accurately representing aerosol interactions within these clouds persists as a major challenge for weather and climate modelling. We quantify the effect of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) on the radiative properties of a complex tropical Atlantic deep convective cloud field using a regional model with an advanced double-moment microphysics scheme. Our results show that the domain-mean daylight outgoing radiation varies by up to 18 W m−2 depending on the chosen INP parameterisation. The key distinction between different INP parameterisations is the temperature dependence of ice formation, which alters the vertical distribution of cloud microphysical processes. The controlling effect of the INP temperature dependence is substantial even in the presence of Hallett–Mossop secondary ice production, and the effects of secondary ice formation depend strongly on the chosen INP parameterisation. Our results have implications for climate model simulations of tropical clouds and radiation, which currently do not consider a link between INP particle type and ice water content. The results also provide a challenge to the INP measurement community, as we demonstrate that INP concentration measurements are required over the full mixed-phase temperature regime, which covers around 10 orders of magnitude.

Thunderstorms are the most common source of hazardous weather at local scales, but are poorly represented in conventional climate models, resulting in high uncertainty in future changes. How these changes manifest in terms of lightning is even more uncertain, with previous studies giving conflicting projections. Here, for the first time, we use a km-scale model that explicitly resolves convection across Europe; suggesting more convection by 2100 under RCP8.5. Our ice-based lightning scheme indicates a highly altered lightning climatology-the consequence of general increases in instability, partly limited by convective inhibition, along with huge increases in melting level height and less cloud ice. A northward shift in favourable weather regimes increases lightning frequency at higher latitudes, and favours more thunderstorms over the Alps, but lightning decreases over lower terrain elsewhere and over the sea. Our results suggest the need to re-evaluate lightning risk to wildfires, properties, and human life across Europe.

Changes induced by perturbed aerosol conditions in moderately deep mixed-phase convective clouds (cloud top height ∼ 5 km) developing along sea-breeze convergence lines are investigated with high-resolution numerical model simulations. The simulations utilise the newly developed Cloud–AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM) module for the Unified Model (UM), which allows for the representation of the two-way interaction between cloud and aerosol fields. Simulations are evaluated against observations collected during the COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) field campaign over the southwestern peninsula of the UK in 2013. The simulations compare favourably with observed thermodynamic profiles, cloud base cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC), cloud depth, and radar reflectivity statistics. Including the modification of aerosol fields by cloud microphysical processes improves the correspondence with observed CDNC values and spatial variability, but reduces the agreement with observations for average cloud size and cloud top height. Accumulated precipitation is suppressed for higher-aerosol conditions before clouds become organised along the sea-breeze convergence lines. Changes in precipitation are smaller in simulations with aerosol processing. The precipitation suppression is due to less efficient precipitation production by warm-phase microphysics, consistent with parcel model predictions. In contrast, after convective cells organise along the sea-breeze convergence zone, accumulated precipitation increases with aerosol concentrations. Condensate production increases with the aerosol concentrations due to higher vertical velocities in the convective cores and higher cloud top heights. However, for the highest-aerosol scenarios, no further increase in the condensate production occurs, as clouds grow into an upper-level stable layer. In these cases, the reduced precipitation efficiency (PE) dominates the precipitation response and no further precipitation enhancement occurs. Previous studies of deep convective clouds have related larger vertical velocities under high-aerosol conditions to enhanced latent heating from freezing. In the presented simulations changes in latent heating above the 0∘C are negligible, but latent heating from condensation increases with aerosol concentrations. It is hypothesised that this increase is related to changes in the cloud field structure reducing the mixing of environmental air into the convective core. The precipitation response of the deeper mixed-phase clouds along well-established convergence lines can be the opposite of predictions from parcel models. This occurs when clouds interact with a pre-existing thermodynamic environment and cloud field structural changes occur that are not captured by simple parcel model approaches.

Aerosol-cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol-cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP). When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6-8.3 Wm(exp -2) in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60% of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

This manuscript introduces a new technique for evaluating lightning forecasts from convection-permitting models. In recent years, numerical weather prediction models at the convection-permitting scales (horizontal grid resolutions of 1–5 km) have been able to produce realistic-looking forecasts of lightning activity when compared with observations. However, it is challenging to assess what value these forecasts add above standard large-scale indices. Examining this problem, it is found that existing skill scores and neighborhood verification methods are unable to cope with both the double-penalty effect and the model’s variable frequency bias. A displacement distance and a quasi-symmetric distance score are introduced based on the distance between the model and the observations, the latter showing any improvement the forecast has over a completely “hedged” forecast. This can be combined with a domain-improved contingency table and comparisons between modeled and observed lightning flashes to evaluate the forecast performance in three important dimensions: coverage, distance, and intensity. The verification metric is illustrated with a single case, which shows that the convective-scale U.K. variable resolution model (UKV) delivers improved forecasts compared with the large-scale indices in both coverage and distance. Additionally, a month-long analysis is performed, which reveals that the coverage of lightning is in good agreement with the observations; lightning is displaced by the model by a distance on the order of 50–75 km, but the model overpredicts the lightning intensity by at least a factor of 6 after observational detection efficiencies have been considered.

A convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes for African Climate (IMPALA) project, and its configuration, domain, and forcing data are described here in detail. The model [Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office UM(CP4-Africa)] uses a 4.5-km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parameterization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea surface, which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parameterizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface, and aerosol climatologies of CP4-Africa, has been run to aid in the understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parameterization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in CP4-Africa is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first five years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa, giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent.

Several global modelling studies have explored the effects of lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) on gas-phase chemistry and atmospheric radiative transfer, but few have quantified LNOx's impact on aerosol, particularly when nitrate aerosol is included. This study addresses two key questions: (1) how does including nitrate aerosol affect properties such as tropospheric composition, and (2) how do these effects depend on lightning parameterisation and LNOx levels? Using the Met Office's Unified Model–United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UM–UKCA) global chemistry–climate model, which now includes a modal nitrate aerosol scheme, we investigate these effects with two lightning-flash-rate parameterisations. Our findings show that both nitrate aerosol and LNOx significantly impact tropospheric composition and aerosol responses. Including nitrate aerosol reduces global mean tropospheric OH by 5 %, decreases the tropospheric ozone burden by 4 %–5 %, increases methane lifetime by a similar amount, and alters the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) net downward radiative flux by -0.4 W m−2. The inclusion of nitrate also shifts the aerosol size distribution, particularly in the Aitken and accumulation modes. A 5.2 Tg N yr−1 increase in LNOx from a zero baseline results in global aerosol increases of 2.8 % in NH4, 4.7 % in fine NO3, 12 % in coarse NO3, and 5.8 % in SO4 mass burdens. This much LNOx increase causes relatively small positive changes in aerosol optical depth, TOA radiative flux, and cloud droplet number concentration compared to when nitrate is included. The results, based on a fast uptake rate for HNO3 to produce NH4NO3, likely represent an upper limit on nitrate effects.

Ice crystal formation in the mixed-phase region of deep convective clouds can affect the properties of climatically important convectively generated anvil clouds. Small ice crystals in the mixed-phase cloud region can be formed by heterogeneous ice nucleation by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and secondary ice production (SIP) by, for example, the Hallett–Mossop process. We quantify the effects of INP number concentration, the temperature dependence of the INP number concentration at mixed-phase temperatures, and the Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency on the anvil of an idealised deep convective cloud using a Latin hypercube sampling method, which allows optimal coverage of a multidimensional parameter space, and statistical emulation, which allows us to identify interdependencies between the three uncertain inputs. Our results show that anvil ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) is determined predominately by INP number concentration, with the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity having a secondary role. Conversely, anvil ice crystal size is determined predominately by the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity, with INP number concentration having a secondary role. This is because in our simulations ICNC is predominately controlled by the number concentration of cloud droplets reaching the homogeneous freezing level which is in turn determined by INP number concentrations at low temperatures. Ice crystal size, however, is more strongly affected by the amount of liquid available for riming and the time available for deposition growth which is determined by INP number concentrations at higher temperatures. This work indicates that the amount of ice particle production by the Hallett–Mossop process is determined jointly by the prescribed Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency and the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity. In particular, our sampling of the joint parameter space shows that high rates of SIP do not occur unless the INP parameterisation slope (the temperature dependence of the number concentration of particles which nucleate ice) is shallow, regardless of the prescribed Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency. A shallow INP parameterisation slope and consequently high ice particle production by the Hallett–Mossop process in our simulations leads to a sharp transition to a cloud with extensive glaciation at warm temperatures, higher cloud updraughts, enhanced vertical mass flux, and condensate divergence at the outflow level, all of which leads to a larger convectively generated anvil comprised of larger ice crystals. This work highlights the importance of quantifying the full spectrum of INP number concentrations across all mixed-phase altitudes and the ways in which INP and SIP interact to control anvil properties.