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AbstractObjectiveTo examine and quantify the potential dose-response relation between intake of total, animal, and plant protein and the risk of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.Data sourcesPubMed, Scopus, and ISI Web of Science until December 2019, and references of retrieved relevant articles.Study selectionProspective cohort studies that reported the risk estimates for all cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality in adults aged 18 or older.Data synthesisRandom effects models were used to calculate pooled effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals for the highest versus lowest categories of protein intake and to incorporate variation between studies. Linear and non-linear dose-response analyses were done to evaluate the dose-response relations between protein intake and mortality.Results32 prospective cohort studies were included in the systematic review and 31 in the meta-analysis. During the follow-up period of 3.5 to 32 years, 113 039 deaths (16 429‬ from cardiovascular disease and 22 303‬ from cancer) occurred among 715 128 participants. Intake of total protein was associated with a lower risk of all cause mortality (pooled effect size 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.99, I2=58.4%, P<0.001). Intake of plant protein was significantly associated with a lower risk of all cause mortality (pooled effect size 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 0.97, I2=57.5%, P=0.003) and cardiovascular disease mortality (pooled hazard ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 0.96, I2=63.7%, P=0.001), but not with cancer mortality. Intake of total and animal protein was not significantly associated with risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. A dose-response analysis showed a significant inverse dose-response association between intake of plant protein and all cause mortality (P=0.05 for non-linearity). An additional 3% energy from plant proteins a day was associated with a 5% lower risk of death from all causes.ConclusionsHigher intake of total protein was associated with a lower risk of all cause mortality, and intake of plant protein was associated with a lower risk of all cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. Replacement of foods high in animal protein with plant protein sources could be associated with longevity.

Plant-based diets have been recommended to reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, not all plant foods are necessarily beneficial. We examined the association of an overall plant-based diet and hypothesized healthful and unhealthful versions of a plant-based diet with T2D incidence in three prospective cohort studies in the US. We included 69,949 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2012), 90,239 women from the Nurses' Health Study 2 (1991-2011), and 40,539 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2010), free of chronic diseases at baseline. Dietary data were collected every 2-4 y using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Using these data, we created an overall plant-based diet index (PDI), where plant foods received positive scores, while animal foods (animal fats, dairy, eggs, fish/seafood, poultry/red meat, miscellaneous animal-based foods) received reverse scores. We also created a healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI), where healthy plant foods (whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, legumes, vegetable oils, tea/coffee) received positive scores, while less healthy plant foods (fruit juices, sweetened beverages, refined grains, potatoes, sweets/desserts) and animal foods received reverse scores. Lastly, we created an unhealthful plant-based diet index (uPDI) by assigning positive scores to less healthy plant foods and reverse scores to healthy plant foods and animal foods. We documented 16,162 incident T2D cases during 4,102,369 person-years of follow-up. In pooled multivariable-adjusted analysis, both PDI and hPDI were inversely associated with T2D (PDI: hazard ratio [HR] for extreme deciles 0.51, 95% CI 0.47-0.55, p trend < 0.001; hPDI: HR for extreme deciles 0.55, 95% CI 0.51-0.59, p trend < 0.001). The association of T2D with PDI was considerably attenuated when we additionally adjusted for body mass index (BMI) categories (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.87, p trend < 0.001), while that with hPDI remained largely unchanged (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.61-0.72, p trend < 0.001). uPDI was positively associated with T2D even after BMI adjustment (HR for extreme deciles 1.16, 95% CI 1.08-1.25, p trend < 0.001). Limitations of the study include self-reported diet assessment, with the possibility of measurement error, and the potential for residual or unmeasured confounding given the observational nature of the study design. Our study suggests that plant-based diets, especially when rich in high-quality plant foods, are associated with substantially lower risk of developing T2D. This supports current recommendations to shift to diets rich in healthy plant foods, with lower intake of less healthy plant and animal foods.

For decades, dietary advice was based on the premise that high intakes of fat cause obesity, diabetes, heart disease, and possibly cancer. Recently, evidence for the adverse metabolic effects of processed carbohydrate has led to a resurgence in interest in lower-carbohydrate and ketogenic diets with high fat content. However, some argue that the relative quantity of dietary fat and carbohydrate has little relevance to health and that focus should instead be placed on which particular fat or carbohydrate sources are consumed. This review, by nutrition scientists with widely varying perspectives, summarizes existing evidence to identify areas of broad consensus amid ongoing controversy regarding macronutrients and chronic disease.

AbstractObjectiveTo investigate the association of predicted lean body mass, fat mass, and body mass index (BMI) with all cause and cause specific mortality in men.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingHealth professionals in the United StatesParticipants38 006 men (aged 40-75 years) from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, followed up for death (1987-2012).Main outcome measuresAll cause and cause specific mortality.ResultsUsing validated anthropometric prediction equations previously developed from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, lean body mass and fat mass were estimated for all participants. During a mean of 21.4 years of follow-up, 12 356 deaths were identified. A J shaped association was consistently observed between BMI and all cause mortality. Multivariable adjusted Cox models including predicted fat mass and lean body mass showed a strong positive monotonic association between predicted fat mass and all cause mortality. Compared with those in the lowest fifth of predicted fat mass, men in the highest fifth had a hazard ratio of 1.35 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.46) for mortality from all causes. In contrast, a U shaped association was found between predicted lean body mass and all cause mortality. Compared with those in the lowest fifth of predicted lean body mass, men in the second to fourth fifths had 8-10% lower risk of mortality from all causes. In the restricted cubic spline models, the risk of all cause mortality was relatively flat until 21 kg of predicted fat mass and increased rapidly afterwards, with a hazard ratio of 1.22 (1.18 to 1.26) per standard deviation. For predicted lean body mass, a large reduction of the risk was seen within the lower range until 56 kg, with a hazard ratio of 0.87 (0.82 to 0.92) per standard deviation, which increased thereafter (P for non-linearity <0.001). For cause specific mortality, men in the highest fifth of predicted fat mass had hazard ratios of 1.67 (1.47 to 1.89) for cardiovascular disease, 1.24 (1.09 to 1.43) for cancer, and 1.26 (0.97 to 1.64) for respiratory disease. On the other hand, a U shaped association was found between predicted lean body mass and mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, a strong inverse association existed between predicted lean body mass and mortality from respiratory disease (P for trend <0.001).ConclusionsThe shape of the association between BMI and mortality was determined by the relation between two body components (lean body mass and fat mass) and mortality. This finding suggests that the “obesity paradox” controversy may be largely explained by low lean body mass, rather than low fat mass, in the lower range of BMI.

Objectives. To review the contribution of the Nurses’ Health Studies (NHS and NHS II) in addressing hypotheses regarding risk factors for and consequences of obesity. Methods. Narrative review of the publications of the NHS and NHS II between 1976 and 2016. Results. Long-term NHS research has shown that weight gain and being overweight or obese are important risk factors for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, certain types of cancers, and premature death. The cohorts have elucidated the role of dietary and lifestyle factors in obesity, especially sugar-sweetened beverages, poor diet quality, physical inactivity, prolonged screen time, short sleep duration or shift work, and built environment characteristics. Genome-wide association and gene–lifestyle interaction studies have shown that genetic factors predispose individuals to obesity but that such susceptibility can be attenuated by healthy lifestyle choices. This research has contributed to evolving clinical and public health guidelines on the importance of limiting weight gain through healthy dietary and lifestyle behaviors. Conclusions. The NHS cohorts have contributed to our understanding of the risk factors for and consequences of obesity and made a lasting impact on clinical and public health guidelines on obesity prevention.

AbstractObjectiveTo examine how a healthy lifestyle is related to life expectancy that is free from major chronic diseases.DesignProspective cohort study.Setting and participantsThe Nurses’ Health Study (1980-2014; n=73 196) and the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2014; n=38 366).Main exposuresFive low risk lifestyle factors: never smoking, body mass index 18.5-24.9, moderate to vigorous physical activity (≥30 minutes/day), moderate alcohol intake (women: 5-15 g/day; men 5-30 g/day), and a higher diet quality score (upper 40%).Main outcomeLife expectancy free of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer.ResultsThe life expectancy free of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer at age 50 was 23.7 years (95% confidence interval 22.6 to 24.7) for women who adopted no low risk lifestyle factors, in contrast to 34.4 years (33.1 to 35.5) for women who adopted four or five low risk factors. At age 50, the life expectancy free of any of these chronic diseases was 23.5 (22.3 to 24.7) years among men who adopted no low risk lifestyle factors and 31.1 (29.5 to 32.5) years in men who adopted four or five low risk lifestyle factors. For current male smokers who smoked heavily (≥15 cigarettes/day) or obese men and women (body mass index ≥30), their disease-free life expectancies accounted for the lowest proportion (≤75%) of total life expectancy at age 50.ConclusionAdherence to a healthy lifestyle at mid-life is associated with a longer life expectancy free of major chronic diseases.

To prospectively evaluate the joint association of duration of rotating night shift work and lifestyle factors with risk of type 2 diabetes risk, and to quantitatively decompose this joint association to rotating night shift work only, to lifestyle only, and to their interaction. Prospective cohort study. Nurses' Health Study (1988-2012) and Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2013). 143 410 women without type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. Rotating night shift work was defined as at least three night shifts per month in addition to day and evening shifts in that month. Unhealthy lifestyles included current smoking, physical activity levels below 30 minutes per day at moderate to vigorous intensity, diet in the bottom three fifths of the Alternate Healthy Eating Index score, and body mass index of 25 or above. Incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified through self report and validated by a supplementary questionnaire. During 22-24 years of follow-up, 10 915 cases of incident type 2 diabetes occurred. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for type 2 diabetes were 1.31 (95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.44) per five year increment of duration of rotating night shift work and 2.30 (1.88 to 2.83) per unhealthy lifestyle factor (ever smoking, low diet quality, low physical activity, and overweight or obesity). For the joint association of per five year increment rotating night shift work and per unhealthy lifestyle factor with type 2 diabetes, the hazard ratio was 2.83 (2.15 to 3.73) with a significant additive interaction (P for interaction <0.001). The proportions of the joint association were 17.1% (14.0% to 20.8%) for rotating night shift work alone, 71.2% (66.9% to 75.8%) for unhealthy lifestyle alone, and 11.3% (7.3% to 17.3%) for their additive interaction. Among female nurses, both rotating night shift work and unhealthy lifestyle were associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes. The excess risk of rotating night shift work combined with unhealthy lifestyle was higher than the addition of risk associated with each individual factor. These findings suggest that most cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by adhering to a healthy lifestyle, and the benefits could be greater in rotating night shift workers.

Current dietary guidelines recommend eating a variety of fruits and vegetables. However, based on nutrient composition, some particular fruits and vegetables may be more or less beneficial for maintaining or achieving a healthy weight. We hypothesized that greater consumption of fruits and vegetables with a higher fiber content or lower glycemic load would be more strongly associated with a healthy weight. We examined the association between change in intake of specific fruits and vegetables and change in weight in three large, prospective cohorts of 133,468 United States men and women. From 1986 to 2010, these associations were examined within multiple 4-y time intervals, adjusting for simultaneous changes in other lifestyle factors, including other aspects of diet, smoking status, and physical activity. Results were combined using a random effects meta-analysis. Increased intake of fruits was inversely associated with 4-y weight change: total fruits -0.53 lb per daily serving (95% CI -0.61, -0.44), berries -1.11 lb (95% CI -1.45, -0.78), and apples/pears -1.24 lb (95% CI -1.62, -0.86). Increased intake of several vegetables was also inversely associated with weight change: total vegetables -0.25 lb per daily serving (95% CI -0.35, -0.14), tofu/soy -2.47 lb (95% CI, -3.09 to -1.85 lb) and cauliflower -1.37 lb (95% CI -2.27, -0.47). On the other hand, increased intake of starchy vegetables, including corn, peas, and potatoes, was associated with weight gain. Vegetables having both higher fiber and lower glycemic load were more strongly inversely associated with weight change compared with lower-fiber, higher-glycemic-load vegetables (p < 0.0001). Despite the measurement of key confounders in our analyses, the potential for residual confounding cannot be ruled out, and although our food frequency questionnaire specified portion size, the assessment of diet using any method will have measurement error. Increased consumption of fruits and non-starchy vegetables is inversely associated with weight change, with important differences by type suggesting that other characteristics of these foods influence the magnitude of their association with weight change.

We have summarized the evolution of the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), a prospective cohort study of 121 700 married registered nurses launched in 1976; NHS II, which began in 1989 and enrolled 116 430 nurses; and NHS3, which began in 2010 and has ongoing enrollment. Over 40 years, these studies have generated long-term, multidimensional data, including lifestyle- and health-related information across the life course and an extensive repository of various biological specimens. We have described the questionnaire data collection, disease follow-up methods, biorepository resources, and data management and statistical procedures. Through integrative analyses, these studies have sustained a high level of scientific productivity and substantially influenced public health recommendations. We have highlighted recent interdisciplinary research projects and discussed future directions for collaboration and innovation.

AbstractObjectiveTo examine the associations between the intake of total and individual whole grain foods and the risk of type 2 diabetes.DesignProspective cohort studies.SettingNurses’ Health Study (1984-2014), Nurses’ Health Study II (1991-2017), and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2016), United States.Participants158 259 women and 36 525 men who did not have type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline.Main outcome measuresSelf-reports of incident type 2 diabetes by participants identified through follow-up questionnaires and confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire.ResultsDuring 4 618 796 person years of follow-up, 18 629 participants with type 2 diabetes were identified. Total whole grain consumption was categorized into five equal groups of servings a day for the three cohorts. After adjusting for lifestyle and dietary risk factors for diabetes, participants in the highest category for total whole grain consumption had a 29% (95% confidence interval 26% to 33%) lower rate of type 2 diabetes compared with those in the lowest category. For individual whole grain foods, pooled hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for type 2 diabetes in participants consuming one or more servings a day compared with those consuming less than one serving a month were 0.81 (0.77 to 0.86) for whole grain cold breakfast cereal, 0.79 (0.75 to 0.83) for dark bread, and 1.08 (1.00 to 1.17) for popcorn. For other individual whole grains with lower average intake levels, comparing consumption of two or more servings a week with less than one serving a month, the pooled hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.79 (0.75 to 0.83) for oatmeal, 0.88 (0.82 to 0.94) for brown rice, 0.85 (0.80 to 0.90) for added bran, and 0.88 (0.78 to 0.98) for wheat germ. Spline regression showed a non-linear dose-response association between total whole grain intake and the risk of type 2 diabetes where the rate reduction slightly plateaued at more than two servings a day (P<0.001 for curvature). For whole grain cold breakfast cereal and dark bread, the rate reduction plateaued at about 0.5 servings a day. For consumption of popcorn, a J shaped association was found where the rate of type 2 diabetes was not significantly raised until consumption exceeded about one serving a day. The association between higher total whole grain intake and lower risk of type 2 diabetes was stronger in individuals who were lean than in those who were overweight or obese (P=0.003 for interaction), and the associations did not vary significantly across levels of physical activity, family history of diabetes, or smoking status.ConclusionHigher consumption of total whole grains and several commonly eaten whole grain foods, including whole grain breakfast cereal, oatmeal, dark bread, brown rice, added bran, and wheat germ, was significantly associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes. These findings provide further support for the current recommendations of increasing whole grain consumption as part of a healthy diet for the prevention of type 2 diabetes.