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"Williams, N"
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Public perceptions and experiences of social distancing and social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic: a UK-based focus group study
ObjectiveThis study explored UK public perceptions and experiences of social distancing and social isolation related to the COVID-19 pandemic.DesignThis qualitative study comprised five focus groups, carried out online during the early stages of the UK’s stay at home order (‘lockdown’), and analysed using a thematic approach.SettingFocus groups took place via online videoconferencing.ParticipantsParticipants (n=27) were all UK residents aged 18 years and older, representing a range of gender, ethnic, age and occupational backgrounds.ResultsQualitative analysis revealed four main themes: (1) loss—participants’ loss of (in-person) social interaction, loss of income and loss of structure and routine led to psychological and emotional ‘losses’ such as loss of motivation, loss of meaning and loss of self-worth; (2) criticisms of government communication—participants reported a lack of trust in government and a lack of clarity in the guidelines around social distancing and isolation; (3) adherence—participants reported high self-adherence to social distancing guidelines but reported seeing or hearing of non-adherence in others; (4) uncertainty around social reintegration and the future—some participants felt they would have lingering concerns over social contact while others were eager to return to high levels of social activity.Most participants, and particularly those in low-paid or precarious employment, reported feeling that the social distancing and isolation associated with COVID-19 policy has had negative impacts on their mental health and well-being during the early stages of the UK’s ‘lockdown’.ConclusionsA rapid response is necessary in terms of public health programming to mitigate the mental health impacts of COVID-19 social distancing and isolation. Social distancing and isolation ‘exit strategies’ must account for the fact that, although some individuals will voluntarily or habitually continue to socially distance, others will seek high levels of social engagement as soon as possible.
Journal Article
A new population curve for prehistoric Australia
This paper presents a new reconstruction of prehistoric population of Australia for the last 50 ka, using the most comprehensive radiocarbon database currently available for the continent. The application of new techniques to manipulate radiocarbon data (including correction for taphonomic bias), gives greater reliability to the reconstructed population curve. This shows low populations through the Late Pleistocene, before a slow stepwise increase in population beginning during the Holocene transition (approx. 12 ka) and continuing in pulses (approx. 8.3–6.6, 4.4–3.7 and 1.6–0.4 ka) through the Holocene. These data give no support for an early saturation of the continent, although the estimated population following initial landfall was probably greater than previously allowed (comparable with the Early Holocene). The greatest increase in population occurred in the Late Holocene, but in contrast to existing intensification models, changes in demography and diversification of economic activities began much earlier. Some demographic changes appear to be in response to major climatic events, most notably during the last glacial maximum, where the curve suggests that population fell by about 60 per cent between 21 and 18 ka. An application of statistical demographic methods to Australian ethnographic and genetic data suggests that a founding group of 1000–2000 at 50 ka would result in a population high of approximately 1.2 million at approximately 0.5 ka. Data suggests an 8 per cent decline to approximately 770 000–1.1 million at the time of European contact, giving a figure consistent with ethnographic estimates and with historical observations of the impact of smallpox, and other diseases introduced by Macassans and Europeans during and after AD 1788.
Journal Article
Charleston syllabus : readings on race, racism, and racial violence
\"A collection of new essays and columns published in the wake of the 2015 Charleston, SC, massacre, along with excerpts from key scholarly books. It draws from a variety of disciplines--history, sociology, urban studies, law, critical race theory--and includes discussion questions and a selected and annotated bibliography for further reading\"--Amazon.com.
Book
Crop production in the USA is frequently limited by a lack of pollinators
Most of the world's crops depend on pollinators, so declines in both managed and wild bees raise concerns about food security. However, the degree to which insect pollination is actually limiting current crop production is poorly understood, as is the role of wild species (as opposed to managed honeybees) in pollinating crops, particularly in intensive production areas. We established a nationwide study to assess the extent of pollinator limitation in seven crops at 131 locations situated across major crop-producing areas of the USA. We found that five out of seven crops showed evidence of pollinator limitation. Wild bees and honeybees provided comparable amounts of pollination for most crops, even in agriculturally intensive regions. We estimated the nationwide annual production value of wild pollinators to the seven crops we studied at over $1.5 billion; the value of wild bee pollination of all pollinator-dependent crops would be much greater. Our findings show that pollinator declines could translate directly into decreased yields or production for most of the crops studied, and that wild species contribute substantially to pollination of most study crops in major crop-producing regions.
Journal Article
Underpredicted ENSO Teleconnections in Seasonal Forecasts
The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability across the globe. ENSO is highly predictable on seasonal timescales and therefore its teleconnections are a source of extratropical forecast skill. To fully harness this predictability, teleconnections must be represented accurately in seasonal forecasts. We find that a multimodel ensemble from five seasonal forecast systems can successfully capture the spatial structure of the late winter (JFM) El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic via North America, but the simulated amplitude is half of that observed. We find that weak amplitude teleconnections exist in all five models throughout the troposphere, and that the La Niña teleconnection is also weak. We find evidence that tropical forcing of the El Niño teleconnection is not underestimated and instead, deficiencies are likely to emerge in the extratropics. We investigate the impact of underestimated teleconnection strength on North Atlantic winter predictability, including its relevance to the signal‐to‐noise paradox.
Plain Language Summary
The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes the cycle of warmer and cooler sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which influences climate around the globe. The high heat capacity of the ocean means that ENSO changes relatively slowly and so the ENSO phase—known as El Niño or La Niña—can be predicted with high accuracy several months ahead. Far‐flung influences—known as teleconnections—of ENSO can provide predictability away from the tropics in seasonal forecasts if they are accurately modeled. In this work, the late winter (January–March) ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic, traveling via the North Pacific and North America, is investigated in five forecast models. We find that in each model, the pattern of the teleconnection is accurately captured, but the strength of the modeled teleconnection is half of that in the real world. We find that the strength of processes in the tropics which cause the El Niño teleconnection—including changes in sea surface temperatures and rainfall—are not underestimated by models, meaning that the problem arises further along the pathway to the extratropics. This error likely contributes to the currently unresolved “signal to noise paradox” in climate forecasts.
Key Points
Seasonal forecasts severely underestimate the response to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the extratropical North Pacific
The underestimated model response exists throughout the troposphere and is present for both El Niño and La Niña
Tropical processes which generate the El Niño teleconnection are well predicted and so the error does not appear to originate in the tropics
Journal Article
Long-Term Persistance of the Pathophysiologic Response to Severe Burn Injury
Main contributors to adverse outcomes in severely burned pediatric patients are profound and complex metabolic changes in response to the initial injury. It is currently unknown how long these conditions persist beyond the acute phase post-injury. The aim of the present study was to examine the persistence of abnormalities of various clinical parameters commonly utilized to assess the degree hypermetabolic and inflammatory alterations in severely burned children for up to three years post-burn to identify patient specific therapeutic needs and interventions.
Nine-hundred seventy-seven severely burned pediatric patients with burns over 30% of the total body surface admitted to our institution between 1998 and 2008 were enrolled in this study and compared to a cohort non-burned, non-injured children. Demographics and clinical outcomes, hypermetabolism, body composition, organ function, inflammatory and acute phase responses were determined at admission and subsequent regular intervals for up to 36 months post-burn. Statistical analysis was performed using One-way ANOVA, Student's t-test with Bonferroni correction where appropriate with significance accepted at p<0.05. Resting energy expenditure, body composition, metabolic markers, cardiac and organ function clearly demonstrated that burn caused profound alterations for up to three years post-burn demonstrating marked and prolonged hypermetabolism, p<0.05. Along with increased hypermetabolism, significant elevation of cortisol, catecholamines, cytokines, and acute phase proteins indicate that burn patients are in a hyperinflammatory state for up to three years post-burn p<0.05.
Severe burn injury leads to a much more profound and prolonged hypermetabolic and hyperinflammatory response than previously shown. Given the tremendous adverse events associated with the hypermetabolic and hyperinflamamtory responses, we now identified treatment needs for severely burned patients for a much more prolonged time.
Journal Article
HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring
HadISDH.2.0.0 is the first gridded, multi-variable humidity and temperature in situ observations-only climate-data product that is homogenised and annually updated. It provides physically consistent estimates for specific humidity, vapour pressure, relative humidity, dew point temperature, wet bulb temperature, dew point depression and temperature. It is a monthly mean gridded (5° by 5°) product with uncertainty estimates that account for spatio-temporal sampling, climatology calculation, homogenisation and irreducible random measurement effects. It provides a tool for the long-term monitoring of a variety of humidity-related variables which have different impacts and implications for society. It is also useful for climate model evaluation and reanalyses validation. HadISDH.2.0.0 is shown to be in good agreement both with other estimates and with theoretical understanding. The data set is available from 1973 to the present. The theme common to all variables is of a warming world with more water vapour present in the atmosphere. The largest increases in water vapour are found over the tropics and the Mediterranean. Over the tropics and high northern latitudes the surface air over land is becoming more saturated. However, despite increasing water vapour over the mid-latitudes and Mediterranean, the surface air over land is becoming less saturated. These observed features may be due to atmospheric circulation changes, land–sea warming disparities and reduced water availability or changed land surface properties.
Journal Article