Explore the vast range of titles available.

The exposure of populations to sea-level rise (SLR) is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. SLR exposes coastal populations to a spectrum of impacts with broad spatial and temporal heterogeneity, but exposure assessments often narrowly define the spatial zone of flooding. Here we show how choice of zone results in differential exposure estimates across space and time. Further, we apply a spatio-temporal flood-modeling approach that integrates across these spatial zones to assess the annual probability of population exposure. We apply our model to the coastal United States to demonstrate a more robust assessment of population exposure to flooding from SLR in any given year. Our results suggest that more explicit decisions regarding spatial zone (and associated temporal implication) will improve adaptation planning and policies by indicating the relative chance and magnitude of coastal populations to be affected by future SLR. The exposure of populations to sea-level rise is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. The authors identify three spatial zones of flooding such as mean higher water, the 100 year floodplain and the low-elevation coastal zone and show population exposure can differ between those zones.

Illicit cattle ranching and coca farming have serious negative consequences on the Colombian Amazon’s land systems. The underlying causes of these land activities include historical processes of colonization, armed conflict, and narco-trafficking. We aim to examine how illicit cattle ranching and coca farming are driving forest cover change over the last 34 years (1985–2019). To achieve this aim, we combine two pixel-based approaches to differentiate between coca farming and cattle ranching using hypothetical observed patterns of illicit activities and a deep learning algorithm. We found evidence that cattle ranching, not coca, is the main driver of forest loss outside the legal agricultural frontier. There is evidence of a recent, explosive conversion of forests to cattle ranching outside the agricultural frontier and within protected areas since the negotiation phase of the peace agreement. In contrast, coca is remarkably persistent, suggesting that crop substitution programs have been ineffective at stopping the expansion of coca farming deeper into protected areas. Countering common narratives, we found very little evidence that coca farming precedes cattle ranching. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the expansion of illicit land uses reflect the cumulative outcome of agrarian policies, Colombia’s War on Drugs, and the 2016 peace accord. Our study enables the differentiation of illicit land activities, which can be transferred to other regions where these activities have been documented but poorly distinguished spatiotemporally. We provide an applied framework that could be used elsewhere to disentangle other illicit land uses, track their causes, and develop management options for forested land systems and people who depend on them.

Counterdrug interdiction efforts designed to seize or disrupt cocaine shipments between South American source zones and US markets remain a core US “supply side” drug policy and national security strategy. However, despite a long history of US-led interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine movements to the United States through Central America, or “narco-trafficking,” continue to rise. Here, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM), called “NarcoLogic,” of narco-trafficker operational decision making in response to interdiction forces to investigate the root causes of interdiction ineffectiveness across space and time. The central premise tested was that spatial proliferation and resiliency of narco-trafficking are not a consequence of ineffective interdiction, but rather part and natural consequence of interdiction itself. Model development relied on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, media reports, and the authors’ own years of field research in the region. Parameterization and validation used the best available, authoritative data source for illicit cocaine flows. Despite inherently biased, unreliable, and/or incomplete data of a clandestine phenomenon, the model compellingly reproduced the “cat-and-mouse” dynamic between narco-traffickers and interdiction forces others have qualitatively described. The model produced qualitatively accurate and quantitatively realistic spatial and temporal patterns of cocaine trafficking in response to interdiction events. The NarcoLogic model offers a much-needed, evidence-based tool for the robust assessment of different drug policy scenarios, and their likely impact on trafficker behavior and the many collateral damages associated with the militarized war on drugs.

In November 2016, after 52 years of armed conflict, the Colombian government and the primary rebel group, the FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) reached a peace agreement. The agreement incorporated three changes to institutions governing forest land occupation and use: (a) the demobilization of FARC from forested places, (2) the future distribution of legal land titles and new road construction into forests, and (3) the eradication of illicit crops. However, we document unprecedented rates of forest disturbance in the months following the peace agreement in biodiversity hotspots across the country. Are the declaration of peace and the increased rates of forest disturbance related? Here, we present the first systematic assessment of the impact of the Colombian peace agreement on forest disturbance. Focusing on the Andes-Amazon Transition Belt (AATB), we used automated satellite image disturbance detection methods and ethnographic data to quantify and interpret forest cover change from 2010 to 2018 that span wartime, peace negotiation, and post-peace agreement stages. Our findings indicate that during the post-peace agreement period (2017-2018), the area of forest disturbance increased by 50% (about 238 000 ha) across the AATB in comparison with the four-year peace negotiation stage (2013-2016); these changes reflect the end of FARC-led gunpoint conservation in the region. Forest disturbance also spread deeper into the Amazon watershed and increased in area by 187% within the AATB's protected areas. We find that following the peace agreement and the withdrawal of FARC, key actors (viz. drug cartels, large landowners, campesinos and dissidents) with expectations of favorable land tenure policies swept into the region; this led to increases in large-scale cattle ranching, coca cultivation dispersal, and speculative illegal land markets each of which contributed to the widespread forest disturbance that we mapped. The rapid increase in forest disturbance occurred despite the interest of the international community in promoting forest conservation initiatives in the AATB and Colombia's existing conservation and land titling frameworks for public lands. Our findings underscore the need for conservation strategies sensitive to rapid institutional and demographic changes in the course of the peace agreement to prevent forests from becoming an unexpected casualty of premature and unstable peace.

Drug trafficking is taking a toll on Central America's biodiverse forests. The watershed 2013 report, The Drug Problem in the Americas ( 1 ), highlights a shift toward multilateral support for hemispheric drug policy reform. This report by the Organization of American States (OAS) reviews failures of the U.S.-led prohibitionist “war on drugs” and urges states to reconsider orthodox “supply-side” strategies (including interdiction and drug crop eradication), and to focus more on demand-side policy experimentation. In Central America, a key zone of drug transit that is being ripped apart by narco-fueled violence and corruption ( 2 , 3 ), the push for reform signals hope that the conditions fueling drug traffickers' profits and corrosive political influence may eventually be dismantled ( 4 ).

A growing body of evidence suggests that criminal activities associated with drug trafficking networks are a progressively important driver of forest loss in Central America. However, the scale at which drug trafficking represents a driver of forest loss is not presently known. We estimated the degree to which narcotics trafficking may contribute to forest loss using an unsupervised spatial clustering of 15 spatial and temporal forest loss patch metrics developed from global forest change data. We distinguished anomalous forest loss from background loss patches for each country exhibiting potential 'narco-capitalized' signatures which showed a statistically significant dissimilarity from other patches in terms of size, timing, and rate of forest loss. We also compared annual anomalous forest loss with the number of cocaine shipments and volume of cocaine seized, lost, or delivered at country- and department-level. For Honduras, results from linear mixed effects models showed a highly significant relationship between anomalous forest loss and the timing of increased drug trafficking (F = 9.90, p = 0.009) that also differed significantly from temporal patterns of background forest loss (t-ratio = 2.98, p = 0.004). Other locations of high forest loss in Central America showed mixed results. The timing of increased trafficking was not significantly related to anomalous forest loss in Guatemala and Nicaragua, but significantly differed in patch size compared to background losses. We estimated that cocaine trafficking could account for between 15% and 30% of annual national forest loss in these three countries over the past decade, and 30% to 60% of loss occurred within nationally and internationally designated protected areas. Cocaine trafficking is likely to have severe and lasting consequences in terms of maintaining moist tropical forest cover in Central America. Addressing forest loss in these and other tropical locations will require a stronger linkage between national and international drug interdiction and conservation policies.

For decades, cocaine trafficking has been a key factor in accelerating the social and ecological transformation of rural landscapes across Latin America. In this review article, we explain why and how. Drawing from scholarly, journalistic, and policy sources we identify and theorize the political-economic logics and grounded processes underlying the pervasive nexus of agrarian change, clandestine activities, and illicit capital. We first outline three key elements of the political economic context that create and enable land acquisition by drug traffickers. We then elucidate narcos' multiple motives for acquiring, transforming, and holding rural landed property. Ultimately, we make a case for understanding drug traffickers as a \"narco-bourgeoisie\" due to their use of cocaine profits to establish and extend private property relations into erstwhile communal and protected lands that were previously unavailable for capital accumulation. We argue that theorizing drug traffickers in this way better captures the relationship between drug control policy and capitalism, and the role of illicit capital in land use change. Por décadas el tráfico de cocaína ha generado bruscos y violentos cambios socioeconómicos como ecológicos, transformando las economías rurales en todos los países afectados en América Latina. Este artículo presenta un análisis del impacto multidimensional del narcotráfico sobre las economías rurales de Colombia, Centroamérica, y México. El artículo analiza los elementos fundamentales que han impulsado a los narcotraficantes (narco burguesía) a la adquisición masiva de tierras. En este sentido, el artículo discute tres factores interdependientes que explican el impacto de la economía del narcotráfico: cambio en las economías rurales, las actividades clandestinas del narcotráfico, y el capital ilícito. El articulo analiza elementos de los contextos internacionales (como la guerra contra las drogas) y de los contextos locales (corrupción, leyes de tierras) que posibilitaron el acaparamiento de tierras por la narco burguesía. Finalmente, el artículo argumenta que los narcotraficantes, y su emergente burguesía, son instrumentales en la expansión de la propiedad privada y en la concentración de tierras, impulsando el sistema capitalista selva adentro, perjudicando comunidades indígenas y afrodescendientes, el medio ambiente y la seguridad alimenticia.

Reducing vulnerability is essential for adaptation to climate change. Compared to approaches that examine vulnerability to a specific hazard, our analysis offers an alternative perspective that conceptualizes vulnerability to climate change as a phenomenon that is independent of any specific type of hazard but relevant to multiple hazards. Vulnerability is thus a product of structural inequality and systemic in nature. Based on two established index systems, we perform global analyses of specific phenomena—such as poverty, access to basic infrastructure services and forced migration—that influence and determine vulnerability. Our statistical and spatial analyses reveal an emerging pattern of climate vulnerability within regional clusters and shows that vulnerability is a transboundary issue, crossing political, sectorial and geographical borders and impacting shared resources. The spatial statistical hotspot analysis of vulnerability underscores that hotspots, for example of high vulnerability, state fragility, low biodiversity protection or forced migration, emerge in multi-country clusters. This aspect has often been overlooked, most attention to-date having been given to the positioning of individual countries within vulnerability rankings. In hotspots such as in the Sahel, East and Central Africa, as well as in Southern Asia and Central America, vulnerability is interwoven with high levels of state fragility, making adaptation solutions more complex. The recognition of the regional clusters and the transboundary nature of vulnerability calls for new research and action on how to strengthen transboundary approaches for vulnerability reduction, potentially enhancing prospects for successful adaptation.

Climate change - along with conflict, violence, and climate-related disasters - has the potential to accelerate many forms of human migration and mobility, and yet almost all of the key migration outcomes of interest (the decision to migrate, the timing of migration, the preferred destinations, the condition of migrants, outcomes of migration, etc.) are determined by governance decisions. While it is well documented that migration as adaptation can increase the adaptive capacity for both migrants and destination communities, policy decisions can lead to both barriers to or opportunities for desired outcomes within a governance landscape. Though the decision to leave a place of origin is frequently studied, less attention has been given to the outcomes for migrants within a chosen destination, and the often-opaque elements that contribute to destinations being preferred or avoided. Under current climate change scenarios, the demand for migration as adaptation is increasing and the conceptual framework presented here is guided by the need to understand how intended and unintended consequences of host-centred, migrant-centred, or mutual migration governance affect migrants in a destination regardless of the driver. The conceptual framework we present, comprised of four potential governance \"quadrants\", is used for defining variability within a polycentric governance landscape in order to understand the formal and informal governance elements that produce outcomes for both migrant and host communities. We then apply the framework, making contact with three case studies within Oregon's diverse governance landscape, and explore the degree to which variability in a governance landscape creates destinations that are favourable or unfavourable to migrants, elucidating the informal and formal governance elements that enable or limit preferred migration outcomes. In a future in which migration is likely to be influenced by a changing climate, a conceptual framework, such as this may aid in elucidating the structural conditions that shape livelihood outcomes for migrants and host communities.

Environmental migration, in its different forms, is an aspiration toward stability domains amidst dynamic system change. This paper assesses critical system relationships that couple human and natural systems and change in due course of a regime shift affecting Garífuna villages in Northern Honduras. The specified resilience of these relationships influences the course that migration takes after a flooding event. In impacted villages, migration is a mechanism for demographic fragmentation, ‘downgrades’ livelihood chains, and reinforces a class divide. Villages systems that experience a shift to uninhabitable and unproductive state spaces become shallow stability domains and consequently, perpetual exporters of migrants over an extended period of time. In the end, migration itself is a cascading aspect of a regime shift that is both ecological and social, forced and chosen.