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"Wright, David M."
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Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions
In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.
Journal Article
\I'd probably trip over it because it's bumpy\: A qualitative exploration of the lived experiences of ambulatory children with cerebral palsy walking in challenging environments
Children with cerebral palsy experience regular falls, but their lived experiences of falls in the real-world are unknown. Understanding the perspectives of children and parents is important to gain deeper insight into how falls happen in real-world environments, especially since typical walking analyses are carried out over level-ground and may overlook everyday challenges to balance (e.g., uneven pavements when walking to school). Walk-along interviews can generate rich insights into children's everyday life by discussing experiences while walking.
The Walk-Along Project aimed to explore lived experiences of ambulatory children with cerebral palsy to determine challenging walking environments that increase fall risk day-to-day, using walk-along interviews.
Twelve ambulatory children with cerebral palsy (12 ± 3 years old, 6 hemiplegia, 6 diplegia) and their parents took part in an outdoor walk-along interview. Previous fall experiences and everyday challenging environments that may increase fall risk were discussed. Action cameras and microphones captured walking environments and conversations, which were later synchronised, transcribed and analysed in NVivo using interpretive description.
Two themes were generated ('places where trips and falls occur' and 'things children do to control falls and manage consequences') plus five subthemes ('walking on bumpy and unstable ground', 'taking care, walking slower and avoiding places', 'distracting environments are dangerous environments', 'close calls and falls', and 'managing consequences and concerns'). The most common environment suggested to increase fall risk was uneven surfaces (e.g., grass potholes) with distractions (e.g., dogs barking).
The Walk-Along Project reveals novel insights about places that increase fall risk in ambulatory children with cerebral palsy, beyond what is currently known. The importance of considering both environmental challenges (e.g., uneven surfaces) and sensory challenges (e.g., distractions) is highlighted through children's lived experiences. Future work should consider how interacting factors (e.g., distractions in uneven environments) increase fall-risk in ambulatory children with cerebral palsy, in order to understand mechanisms of falls for potential fall prevention programmes.
Journal Article
Sensitivity of Lake-Effect Snowfall to Lake Ice Cover and Temperature in the Great Lakes Region
High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of Great Lakes lake-effect snowfall (LES) to changes in lake ice cover and surface temperature. A control simulation with observed ice cover is compared with three sensitivity tests: complete ice cover, no lake ice, and warmer lake surface temperatures. The spatial pattern of unfrozen lake surfaces determines the placement of LES, and complete ice cover eliminates it. Removal of ice cover and an increase in lake temperatures result in an expansion of the LES area both along and downwind of the lake shore, as well as an increase in snowfall amount. While lake temperatures and phase determine the amount and spatial coverage of LES, the finescale distribution of LES is strongly affected by the interaction between lake surface fluxes, the large-scale flow, and the local lake shore geography and inland topography. As a consequence, the sensitivity of LES to topography and shore geometry differs for lakes with short versus long overwater fetch. These simulations indicate that coarse-resolution models may be able to realistically reproduce the gross features of LES in future climates, but will miss the important local-scale interactions that determine the location and intensity of LES.
Journal Article
Are volunteering and caregiving associated with suicide risk? A Census-based longitudinal study
Background
Opposing risks have been identified between different prosocial activities, with volunteering having been linked to better mental health while caregiving has been associated with higher prevalence and incidence of depression. This study explored suicide risk of people engaged in prosocial activities of caregiving and/or volunteering.
Methods
A Census-based record linkage study of 1,018,000 people aged 25–74 years (130,816 caregivers; 110,467 volunteers; and 42,099 engaged in both) was undertaken. Caregiving (light: 1–19; intense: ≥20 h/week), volunteering and mental health status were derived from 2011 Census records. Suicide risk (45 months follow-up) was assessed using Cox models adjusted for baseline mental health.
Results
Intense caregiving was associated with worse mental health (OR
adj
= 1.15: 95%CI = 1.12, 1.18) and volunteering with better mental health (OR = 0.87: 95%CI = 0.84, 0.89). For those engaged in both activities, likelihood of poor mental health was determined by caregiving level. There were 528 suicides during follow-up, with those engaged in both activities having the lowest risk of suicide (HR = 0.34: 95%CI = 0.14, 0.84). Engaging in either volunteering or caregiving was associated with lower suicide risk for those with good mental health at baseline (HR = 0.66: 95%CI = 0.49, 0.88) but not for their peers with baseline poor mental health (HR = 1.02: 95%CI = 0.69, 1.51).
Conclusions
Although an increased risk of poor mental health was identified amongst caregivers, there was no evidence of an increased risk of suicide.
Journal Article
Talking the Walk (Along): Lessons Learned From Engaging With Children With Cerebral Palsy and Their Parents for Investigating Lived Experiences of Falls
Background Children with cerebral palsy (CP) regularly fall over, but causes of day‐to‐day falls are not well understood. Further insight may be revealed by engaging with children with CP and their families during patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE) and adopting a participatory, child‐centred perspective. PPIE involves designing, conducting and disseminating research with the public and has been used in health research with children, but has not been utilised to inform research of falls with children with CP. Objective This paper aims to critically discuss experiences of PPIE with children with CP and their parents, who engaged with a researcher to inform a novel adaptation of the walk‐along interview method for investigating how real‐world falls occur. Methods of Engagement Eight children with CP (8–17 years) and six parents engaged as PPIE participants in consultations and activities with the researcher about a walk‐along interview method, specifically tailored to children with CP. Outcomes of Engagement PPIE participants identified places to walk (e.g., parks), how to conduct interviews (e.g., ‘stop and talk’) and areas of questioning, that contributed to a walk‐along interview protocol. These outcomes demonstrate that PPIE generated unique insights for a protocol specific to children with CP. Discussion Strength was brought to PPIE through developing good relationships and using creative activities. Challenges during PPIE included contrasting views and availability, which were managed through adaptation, communication and consensus. Conclusions This study supports and expands previous PPIE and child‐centred work, reinforcing that children and parents can positively help create impactful research designs, by developing and refining a method to collect real‐world information about falls, specifically tailored for children with CP. We offer critical reflections on conducting PPIE, showing that engaging in PPIE to refine a protocol can offer unique insight into the worlds of children with CP and strengthen the design of future studies. Patient or Public Contribution Children with CP and their parents were consulted using PPIE to provide their views about a novel walk‐along interview method tailored for children with CP. This paper focuses on lessons learned from this PPIE, which is part of a wider pre‐defined PhD project investigating causes of falls in children with CP. Within the wider project PPIE is an ongoing process beyond the scope of this paper.
Journal Article
A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir
Multi-host pathogens are particularly difficult to control, especially when at least one of the hosts acts as a hidden reservoir. Deep sequencing of densely sampled pathogens has the potential to transform this understanding, but requires analytical approaches that jointly consider epidemiological and genetic data to best address this problem. While there has been considerable success in analyses of single species systems, the hidden reservoir problem is relatively under-studied. A well-known exemplar of this problem is bovine Tuberculosis, a disease found in British and Irish cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis , where the Eurasian badger has long been believed to act as a reservoir but remains of poorly quantified importance except in very specific locations. As a result, the effort that should be directed at controlling disease in badgers is unclear. Here, we analyse densely collected epidemiological and genetic data from a cattle population but do not explicitly consider any data from badgers. We use a simulation modelling approach to show that, in our system, a model that exploits available cattle demographic and herd-to-herd movement data, but only considers the ability of a hidden reservoir to generate pathogen diversity, can be used to choose between different epidemiological scenarios. In our analysis, a model where the reservoir does not generate any diversity but contributes to new infections at a local farm scale are significantly preferred over models which generate diversity and/or spread disease at broader spatial scales. While we cannot directly attribute the role of the reservoir to badgers based on this analysis alone, the result supports the hypothesis that under current cattle control regimes, infected cattle alone cannot sustain M. bovis circulation. Given the observed close phylogenetic relationship for the bacteria taken from cattle and badgers sampled near to each other, the most parsimonious hypothesis is that the reservoir is the infected badger population. More broadly, our approach demonstrates that carefully constructed bespoke models can exploit the combination of genetic and epidemiological data to overcome issues of extreme data bias, and uncover important general characteristics of transmission in multi-host pathogen systems.
Journal Article