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"Wright, Jonathan"
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The 'natural leaders' and their world : politics, culture and society in Belfast, c. 1801-1832
This is an exploration of the complex and cosmopolitan urban culture inhabited by the Presbyterian elite of late-Georgian Belfast.
Book
What does Monetary Policy do to Long-term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?
This article uses a structural VAR with daily data to identify the effects of monetary policy shocks on various longer term interest rates since the federal funds rate has been stuck at the zero lower bound. The VAR is identified using the assumption that monetary policy shocks are heteroskedastic: monetary policy shocks have especially high variance on days of FOMC meetings and certain speeches, while there is otherwise nothing unusual about these days. A complementary high-frequency event-study approach is also used. I find that stimulative monetary policy shocks lower Treasury and corporate bond yields but the effects die off fairly fast.
Journal Article
Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset
This paper provides cross-country empirical evidence on term premia. I construct a panel of zero-coupon nominal government bond yields spanning ten industrialized countries and nearly two decades. I hence compute forward rates and use two different methods to decompose these forward rates into expected future short-term interest rates and term premiums. The first method uses an affine term structure model with macroeconomic variables as unspanned risk factors; the second method uses surveys. I find that term premiums declined internationally over the sample period, especially in countries that apparently reduced inflation uncertainty by making substantial changes in their monetary policy frameworks. (JEL E13, E43, E52, G12, H63)
Journal Article
Mental maps in the era of dâetente and the end of the Cold War, 1968-91
\"The last two decades of Cold War saw a transformation of the international system. This volume shows how this change was viewed through the eyes of fifteen major political leaders who were caught up in the process and helped to shape it. The focus on individuals allows the global transformation of power relations to be understood together with the distinctive elements of different societies, cultures and ideologies. The mental maps of crucial figures, from Brezhnev to Gorbachev, Nixon and Kissinger to Reagan, Allende to Mandela, Hussein to Nyerere, Deng Xiaoping to Soeharto, Brandt and Kohl to Havel and Ceausescu provide fascinating insights into the opportunities and constraints felt during this crucial era of international relations\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling
This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession, which was unlike most other postwar recessions in the United States in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts.
Journal Article
Eating clean for dummies
Used as a way of life, clean eating can improve overall health, prevent disease, increase energy and stabilize moods. Provides the reader with an-easy-to-follow guide to eliminate processed foods from one's diet and improve one's health and budget by eating clean-- Source other than Library of Congress.
Book
Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia
We assess the relationship between monetary policy, foreign exchange risk premia, and term premia including the period at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We estimate a structural vector autoregression including U.S. and foreign interest rates and exchange rates and identify monetary policy shocks through a method that uses high-frequency monetary policy surprises as the external instrument that achieves identification without using implausible restrictions. We split out effects of different types of monetary policy surprises that apply at the ZLB, including forward guidance and asset purchases. This allows us to measure the effects of policy shocks on expectations, and hence risk premia.
Journal Article
Strong grain neighbour effects in polycrystals
Anisotropy in single-crystal properties of polycrystals controls both the overall response of the aggregates and patterning of local stress/strain distributions, the extremes of which govern failure processes. Improving the understanding of grain–grain interactions has important consequences for in-service performance limits. Three-dimensional synchrotron X-ray diffraction was used to study the evolution of grain-resolved stresses over many contiguous grains in Zr and Ti polycrystals deformed in situ. In a significant fraction of grains, the stress along the loading axis was found to decrease during tensile plastic flow just beyond the macroscopic yield point; this is in the absence of deformation twinning and is a surprising behaviour. It is shown that this phenomenon is controlled by the crystallographic orientation of the grain and its immediate neighbours, particularly those adjacent along the loading axis.
Understanding how individual crystals share load inside a polycrystal is crucial to improve component lifetime, but remains difficult to measure. Here, the authors show that the crystal orientation of a grain and that of its neighbours can surprisingly cause stress relaxation in zirconium and titanium under load.
Journal Article