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Smoking globally kills over half of long-term smokers and causes about 7 million annual deaths. The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) is the main global policy strategy to combat smoking, but its effectiveness is uncertain. Our interrupted time series analyses compared before- and after-FCTC trends in the numbers and prevalence of smokers below the age of 25 years (when smoking initiation occurs and during which response to interventions is greatest) and on cessation at 45–59 years (when quitting probably occurs) in 170 countries, excluding China. Contrasting the 10 years after FCTC ratification with the income-specific before-FCTC trends, we observed cumulative decreases of 15.5% (95% confidence interval = −33.2 to −0.7) for the numbers of current smokers and decreases of −7.5% (95% CI = −10.6 to −4.5) for the prevalence of smoking below age 25 years. The quit ratio (comparing the numbers of former and ever smokers) at 45–59 years increased by 1.8% (1.2 to 2.3) 10 years after FCTC ratification. Countries raising taxes by at least 10 percentage points concurrent with ratification observed steeper decreases in all three outcomes than countries that did not. Over a decade across 170 countries, the FCTC was associated with 24 million fewer young smokers and 2 million more quitters. An interrupted time series analysis found that the World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control reduced smoking prevalence across 170 countries (excluding China) since the country-specific year of ratification.

Random population-based surveys to estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV2 infection causing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are useful to understand distributions and predictors of the infection. In April 2020, the first-ever nationally representative survey in Canada polled 4,240 adults age 18 years and older about self-reported COVID experience in March, early in the epidemic. We examined the levels and predictors of COVID symptoms, defined as fever plus difficulty breathing/shortness of breath, dry cough so severe that it disrupts sleep, and/or loss of sense of smell; and testing for SARS-CoV-2 by respondents and/or household members. About 8% of Canadians reported that they and/or one or more household members experienced COVID symptoms. Symptoms were more common in younger than in older adults, and among visible minorities. Overall, only 3% of respondents and/or household members reported testing for SARS-CoV-2. Being tested was associated with having COVID symptoms, Indigenous identity, and living in Quebec. Periodic nationally representative surveys of symptoms, as well as SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, are required in many countries to understand the pandemic and prepare for the future.

To estimate the costs and mortality reductions of a package of essential health interventions for urban populations in Bangladesh and India. We used population data from the countries' censuses and United Nations Population Division. For causes of mortality in India, we used the Indian Million Death Study. We obtained cost estimates of each intervention from the third edition of . For estimating the mortality reductions expected with the package, we used the model. We calculated the benefit-cost ratio for investing in the package, using an analysis based on the Copenhagen Consensus method. Per urban inhabitant, total costs for the package would be 75.1 United States dollars (US$) in Bangladesh and US$ 105.0 in India. Of this, prevention and treatment of noncommunicable diseases account for US$ 36.5 in Bangladesh and U$ 51.7 in India. The incremental cost per urban inhabitant for all interventions would be US$ 50 in Bangladesh and US$ 75 in India. In 2030, the averted deaths among people younger than 70 years would constitute 30.5% (1027/3362) and 21.2% (828/3913) of the estimated baseline deaths in Bangladesh and India, respectively. The health benefits of investing in the package would return US$ 1.2 per dollar spent in Bangladesh and US$ 1.8 per dollar spent in India. Investing in the package of essential health interventions, which address health-care needs of the growing urban population in Bangladesh and India, seems beneficial and could help the countries to achieve their 2030 sustainable development goals.

The majority of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) will have disease progression of a uniformly fatal disease. mCRPC is driven by both activated androgen receptors and elevated intratumoural androgens; however, the current standard of care is therapy that targets a single androgen signalling mechanism. We aimed to investigate the combination treatment using apalutamide plus abiraterone acetate, each of which suppresses the androgen signalling axis in a different way, versus standard care in mCRPC. ACIS was a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 3 study done at 167 hospitals in 17 countries in the USA, Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, Africa, and South America. We included chemotherapy-naive men (aged ≥18 years) with mCRPC who had not been previously treated with androgen biosynthesis signalling inhibitors and were receiving ongoing androgen deprivation therapy, with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 0 or 1, and a Brief Pain Inventory-Short Form question 3 (ie, worst pain in the past 24 h) score of 3 or lower. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via a centralised interactive web response system with a permuted block randomisation scheme (block size 4) to oral apalutamide 240 mg once daily plus oral abiraterone acetate 1000 mg once daily and oral prednisone 5 mg twice daily (apalutamide plus abiraterone–prednisone group) or placebo plus abiraterone acetate and prednisone (abiraterone–prednisone group), in 28-day treatment cycles. Randomisation was stratified by presence or absence of visceral metastases, ECOG performance status, and geographical region. Patients, the investigators, study team, and the sponsor were masked to group assignments. An independent data-monitoring committee continually monitored data to ensure ongoing patient safety, and reviewed efficacy data. The primary endpoint was radiographic progression-free survival assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was reported for all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This study is completed and no longer recruiting and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02257736. 982 men were enrolled and randomly assigned from Dec 10, 2014 to Aug 30, 2016 (492 to apalutamide plus abiraterone–prednisone; 490 to abiraterone–prednisone). At the primary analysis (median follow-up 25·7 months [IQR 23·0–28·9]), median radiographic progression-free survival was 22·6 months (95% CI 19·4–27·4) in the apalutamide plus abiraterone–prednisone group versus 16·6 months (13·9–19·3) in the abiraterone–prednisone group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·69, 95% CI 0·58–0·83; p<0·0001). At the updated analysis (final analysis for overall survival; median follow-up 54·8 months [IQR 51·5–58·4]), median radiographic progression-free survival was 24·0 months (95% CI 19·7–27·5) versus 16·6 months (13·9–19·3; HR 0·70, 95% CI 0·60–0·83; p<0·0001). The most common grade 3–4 treatment-emergent adverse event was hypertension (82 [17%] of 490 patients receiving apalutamide plus abiraterone–prednisone and 49 [10%] of 489 receiving abiraterone–prednisone). Serious treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 195 (40%) patients receiving apalutamide plus abiraterone–prednisone and 181 (37%) patients receiving abiraterone–prednisone. Drug-related treatment-emergent adverse events with fatal outcomes occurred in three (1%) patients in the apalutamide plus abiraterone–prednisone group (2 pulmonary embolism, 1 cardiac failure) and five (1%) patients in the abiraterone–prednisone group (1 cardiac failure and 1 cardiac arrest, 1 mesenteric arterial occlusion, 1 seizure, and 1 sudden death). Despite the use of an active and established therapy as the comparator, apalutamide plus abiraterone–prednisone improved radiographic progression-free survival. Additional studies to identify subgroups of patients who might benefit the most from combination therapy are needed to further refine the treatment of mCRPC. Janssen Research & Development.

ObjectiveWe sought to quantify the impact of vaping introduction on cigarette smoking across settings with varied regulatory approaches to vaping.DesignInterrupted time series analysis, adjusted for cigarette tax levels.SettingFour Canadian provinces, UK and Australia.ParticipantsEntire population of smokers in each country.InterventionsThe year that vaping was widely introduced in each country.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcome is cigarette consumption per adult, and the secondary outcome is smoking prevalence among young adults.ResultsBased on allowable nicotine levels, restrictions on e-cigarette advertising, sales and access, and taxation, the least to most restrictive jurisdictions were, in order, Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia (all in Canada), UK and Australia. In most, but not all, settings where higher nicotine content was permitted in vaping products (66 mg/mL), vaping introduction led to a reduction in cigarette consumption per capita (Ontario: p=0.037, Quebec: p=0.007) or in smoking prevalence among young adults (Alberta men, p=0.027; Quebec men, p=0.008; Quebec women, p=0.008). In the UK, where the maximum permitted nicotine content in vaping products was 20 mg/mL, vaping introduction slowed the declining trend in cigarette smoking among men aged 16–24 years (p=0.031) and 25–34 years (p=0.002) but not in cigarette consumption per adult. In Australia, where nicotine was not permitted in e-cigarettes, e-cigarette introduction slowed the declining trend in cigarette consumption per capita and in smoking prevalence among men aged 18–24 years (cigarette consumption: p=0.015, prevalence: p=0.044).ConclusionIn environments that enable substitution of cigarettes with e-cigarettes, e-cigarette introduction reduces overall cigarette consumption. Thus, to reduce cigarette smoking, policies that encourage adults to substitute cigarette smoking with vaping should be considered.

Background Several studies have shown the beneficial effects of tobacco fiscal policy, but distributional effects have been less examined, especially at the subnational level. The objective of this study is to analyse the distributional effects of a one-peso tobacco tax increase (roughly equivalent to tripling the current excise tax) on health, poverty, and financial outcomes at the subnational level in Mexico. Methods We employ an extended cost-effectiveness analysis that estimates life-years gained, smoking attributable deaths averted, treatment costs averted, number of persons avoiding poverty and catastrophic health expenditures, and additional tax revenues by income group across five regions. Results With the one-peso tax increase (or 44% price increase), about 1.5 million smokers would quit smoking across the five regions, resulting in nearly 630 thousand premature deaths averted and 12.6 million life years gained. The bottom income quintile would gain three times more life years gains than the top quintile (ratio 3:1), and the largest gain for the most deprived would occur in the South (ratio 19:1), the region with the highest poverty incidence. Costs averted and additional tax revenues would reach 44.6 and 16.2 billion pesos, respectively. Moreover, 251 thousand individuals would avoid falling into poverty, including 53.2 in the lowest income quintile, and 563.9 thousand would avoid catastrophic health expenditures. Overall, the bottom income group would obtain 26% of the life years gained and 24% of the cost averted, while only paying 3% of the additional tax revenue. Conclusions The most significant gains from a substantial cigarette price increase would be for the poorest 20%, especially in the South, the most impoverished region of Mexico. Therefore, tobacco taxes are an opportunity for governments to advance in equity and towards the achievement of sustainable development goals on non-communicable diseases.

Background Between 2006 and 2016 the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 5–19 years in Peru increased from 22.7 to 27.0%. This investment case quantifies the economic impacts of childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity in Peru. It identifies and quantifies the potential impact of a set of new or expanded interventions that can strengthen current national efforts to prevent and reduce child and adolescent overweight and obesity. Methods A deterministic Markov cohort model with a societal cost perspective estimated reductions in mortality and morbidity from implementing interventions to prevent and reduce child and adolescent overweight and obesity and the impact in savings in healthcare costs and gains in wages and productivity. Interventions identified through a review of published literature includes a school-based social marketing campaign, exclusive breastfeeding promotion and support, a healthy food and drink policy for school premises, and a 20% subsidy on fruits and vegetables for people living below the national poverty line. The return on investment (ROI) was calculated along with the estimated cost savings associated with the interventions. Analysis was conducted to test ROI sensitivity to changes in the key parameters and assumptions. Results Between 2025 and 2092, the expected combined direct and indirect healthcare costs attributable to child and adolescent overweight and obesity in Peru are 210.6 billion USD. The direct healthcare costs are 1.8 billion USD, and the indirect costs are 208.8 billion USD. Expected savings for all interventions combined is 13.9 billion USD with a per-person savings of 12,089.8 USD. The expected ROI of the four interventions combined is 39.3 USD (30-years), 64.6 USD (50-years), and 164.1 USD (66-years) per one USD invested. Conclusions The overweight and obesity epidemic among children and adolescents in Peru requires wide-ranging and expanded implementation of policies to achieve long-term reductions in prevalence. This study’s findings show that the four priority interventions have high ROIs and can be used to guide policy to address the complex interplay of factors that contribute to the obesogenic environment.

To evaluate the effectiveness of a social marketing intervention in enhancing knowledge, attitudes and practice (KAP) related to consumption of vitamin A-fortified oil. The intervention employed community events, distribution of educational materials and radio broadcasts. The intervention was assessed in a quasi-experimental non-equivalent control group study design by collecting information on KAP regarding vitamin A-fortified oil consumption before and after 9 months of a 13-month intervention. Six districts in Manyara and Shinyanga regions in Tanzania were non-randomly selected as the intervention districts and two districts served as the control districts. At baseline, 568 lactating mothers with children aged <5 years were randomly selected from the intervention and control districts. Of these, 494 mothers were followed up at endline. After 9 months of intervention, knowledge of fortification and actual consumption of adequately fortified oil were significantly higher in the intervention districts compared with the control districts (P <0·05). Knowledge of the health benefits of vitamin A improved significantly from about 33 to 45 % in both the intervention and control districts. The major sources of information for women were health clinics and community health workers (CHW). The study showed that a social marketing intervention is effective in improving KAP regarding fortified oil consumption at the household level. Clinics and CHW are channels that should be prioritized when communicating health messages, particularly those targeting women.

Background : In India, about one million deaths occur every year due to smoking. Tobacco taxation is the most effective intervention in reducing smoking. In this paper, we examine the impact of a one-time large cigarette price increase, through an increase in excise tax, on health and financing outcomes in four Indian states. Methods : We used extended cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate, across income quintiles, the life-years gained, treatment cost averted, number of men avoiding catastrophic health expenditures and extreme poverty, additional tax revenue collected, and savings to the Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY) with a cigarette price increase to Indian Rupees (INR) 10 plus 10% ad valorem in four Indian states. Results : With the price increase, about 1.5 million men would quit smoking across the four states, with the bottom income group having 7.4 times as many quitters as the top income group (485,725 vs 65,762). As a result of quitting, about 665,000 deaths would be averted. This would yield about 11.9 million life-years, with the bottom income group gaining 7.3 times more than the top income group. Of the INR 1,729 crore in treatment cost averted, the bottom income group would avert 7.4 times more than the top income group. About 454,000 men would avoid catastrophic health expenditures and 75,000 men would avoid falling into extreme poverty. The treatment cost and impoverishment averted would save about INR 672 crore in AB-PMJAY. The tax increase would in turn, generate an additional tax revenue of about INR 4,385 crore. In contrast to the distribution of health benefits, the extra revenue generated from the top income group would be about 3.1 times that from the bottom income group. Conclusions : Cigarette tax increase can provide significant health and economic gains and is a pro-poor policy for India.