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"Yamada, Yuji"
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Neurobiological Mechanisms of Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation for Psychiatric Disorders; Neurophysiological, Chemical, and Anatomical Considerations
2021
Backgrounds: Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a non-invasive brain stimulation technique for the treatment of several psychiatric disorders, e.g., mood disorders and schizophrenia. Therapeutic effects of tDCS are suggested to be produced by bi-directional changes in cortical activities, i.e., increased/decreased cortical excitability via anodal/cathodal stimulation. Although tDCS provides a promising approach for the treatment of psychiatric disorders, its neurobiological mechanisms remain to be explored. Objectives: To review recent findings from neurophysiological, chemical, and brain-network studies, and consider how tDCS ameliorates psychiatric conditions. Findings: Enhancement of excitatory synaptic transmissions through anodal tDCS stimulation is likely to facilitate glutamate transmission and suppress gamma-aminobutyric acid transmission in the cortex. On the other hand, it positively or negatively modulates the activities of dopamine, serotonin, and acetylcholine transmissions in the central nervous system. These neural events by tDCS may change the balance between excitatory and inhibitory inputs. Specifically, multi-session tDCS is thought to promote/regulate information processing efficiency in the cerebral cortical circuit, which induces long-term potentiation (LTP) by synthesizing various proteins. Conclusions: This review will help understand putative mechanisms underlying the clinical benefits of tDCS from the perspective of neurotransmitters, network dynamics, intracellular events, and related modalities of the brain function.
Journal Article
A Comprehensive Analysis of Imbalance Signal Prediction in the Japanese Electricity Market Using Machine Learning Techniques
2025
Power system imbalances pose significant challenges to maintaining grid stability and ensuring efficient market performance, particularly in the context of the Japanese electricity market. The primary drivers of these imbalances are identified as the nonlinear responses of power generation and consumer electricity demand to uncertain variables such as temperature and solar radiation, in addition to complex factors such as planned generator outages and operational constraints. Consequently, the prediction of imbalance signals using linear models is inherently challenging and requires the adaptation of more advanced methods in practice. This study comprehensively analyzes imbalance signal dynamics and develops practical forecasting tools using Machine Learning (ML) techniques. By incorporating a diverse range of features—including lagged imbalance data, weather forecast errors specific to Japan, and temporal patterns—we demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of imbalance signals is significantly improved compared to a baseline reflecting random forecasts based on class distribution observed during the initial training period. Furthermore, the proposed approach identifies the key drivers of hourly imbalance signals, while leveraging out-of-sample forecasting models. Based on these findings, we conclude that the use of multiple predictive models enhances the robustness and reliability of our forecasts, offering actionable tools for improving forecasting accuracy in real-world operations and contributing to a more stable and efficient electricity market.
Journal Article
Construction of Mixed Derivatives Strategy for Wind Power Producers
2023
Due to the inherent uncertainty of wind conditions as well as the price unpredictability in the competitive electricity market, wind power producers are exposed to the risk of concurrent fluctuations in both price and volume. Therefore, it is imperative to develop strategies to effectively stabilize their revenues, or cash flows, when trading wind power output in the electricity market. In light of this context, we present a novel endeavor to construct multivariate derivatives for mitigating the risk of fluctuating cash flows that are associated with trading wind power generation in electricity markets. Our approach involves leveraging nonparametric techniques to identify optimal payoff structures or compute the positions of derivatives with fine granularity, utilizing multiple underlying indexes including spot electricity price, area-wide wind power production index, and local wind conditions. These derivatives, referred to as mixed derivatives, offer advantages in terms of hedge effectiveness and contracting efficiency. Notably, we develop a methodology to enhance the hedge effects by modeling multivariate functions of wind speed and wind direction, incorporating periodicity constraints on wind direction via tensor product spline functions. By conducting an empirical analysis using data from Japan, we elucidate the extent to which the hedge effectiveness is improved by constructing mixed derivatives from various perspectives. Furthermore, we compare the hedge performance between high-granular (hourly) and low-granular (daily) formulations, revealing the advantages of utilizing a high-granular hedging approach.
Journal Article
Improving the Efficiency of Hedge Trading Using Higher-Order Standardized Weather Derivatives for Wind Power
2023
Since the future output of wind power generation is uncertain due to weather conditions, there is an increasing need to manage the risks associated with wind power businesses, which have been increasingly implemented in recent years. This study introduces multiple weather derivatives of wind speed and temperature and examines their effectiveness in reducing (hedging) the fluctuation risk of future cash flows attributed to wind power generation. Given the diversification of hedgers and hedging needs, we propose new standardized derivatives with higher-order monomial payoff functions, such as “wind speed cubic derivatives” and “wind speed and temperature cross-derivatives,” to minimize the cash flow variance and develop a market-trading scheme to practically use these derivatives in wind power businesses. In particular, while demonstrating the importance of standardizing weather derivatives regarding market liquidity and efficiency, we propose a strategy to narrow down the required number (or volume) of traded instruments and improve trading efficiency by utilizing the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Empirical analysis reveals that higher-order, multivariate standardized derivatives can not only enhance the out-of-sample hedge effect but also help reduce trading volume. The results suggest that diversification of hedging instruments increases transaction flexibility and helps wind power generators find more efficient portfolios, which can be generalized to risk management practices in other businesses.
Journal Article
Effectiveness and Feasibility of Market Makers for P2P Electricity Trading
by
Kuno, Shinji
,
Tanaka, Kenji
,
Yamada, Yuji
in
artificial market simulation
,
bidding strategy
,
Convenience stores
2022
Motivated by the growing demand for distributed energy resources (DERs), peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity markets have been explored worldwide. However, such P2P markets must be balanced in much smaller regions with a lot fewer participants than centralized wholesale electricity markets; hence, the market has inherent problems of low liquidity and price instability. In this study, we propose applying a market maker system to the P2P electricity market and developing an efficient market strategy to increase liquidity and mitigate extreme price fluctuations. To this end, we construct an artificial market simulator for P2P electricity trading and design a market agent and general agents (photovoltaic (PV) generators, consumers, and prosumers) to perform power bidding and contract processing. Moreover, we introduce market-maker agents in this study who follow the regulations set by a market administrator and simultaneously place both sell and buy orders in the same market. We implement two types of bidding strategies for market makers and examine their effects on liquidity improvement and price stabilization as well as profitability, using solar PV generation and consumption data observed in a past demonstration project. It is confirmed that liquidity and price stability may be improved by introducing a market maker although there is a trade-off relationship between these effects and the market maker’s profitability.
Journal Article
NUDT15 polymorphism influences the metabolism and therapeutic effects of acyclovir and ganciclovir
by
Kato, Motohiro
,
Moriyama, Takaya
,
Ichinohe, Tatsuo
in
631/154/436/434
,
631/326/596/1553
,
631/326/596/2557
2021
Nucleobase and nucleoside analogs (NNA) are widely used as anti-viral and anti-cancer agents, and NNA phosphorylation is essential for the activity of this class of drugs. Recently, diphosphatase NUDT15 was linked to thiopurine metabolism with
NUDT15
polymorphism associated with drug toxicity in patients. Profiling NNA drugs, we identify acyclovir (ACV) and ganciclovir (GCV) as two new NNAs metabolized by NUDT15. NUDT15 hydrolyzes ACV and GCV triphosphate metabolites, reducing their effects against cytomegalovirus (CMV) in vitro. Loss of NUDT15 potentiates cytotoxicity of ACV and GCV in host cells. In hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients, the risk of CMV viremia following ACV prophylaxis is associated with
NUDT15
genotype (
P
= 0.015). Donor NUDT15 deficiency is linked to graft failure in patients receiving CMV-seropositive stem cells (
P
= 0.047). In conclusion, NUDT15 is an important metabolizing enzyme for ACV and GCV, and
NUDT15
variation contributes to inter-patient variability in their therapeutic effects.
Nucleoside analogs (NNA), such as acyclovir (ACV) and ganciclovir (GCV), are widely used as anti-virals to treat herpes virus infection. Here, Nishii et al. show that diphosphatase NUDT15 hydrolyzes ACV and GCV, therewith reducing NNA activity in vitro and link NUDT15 variation to inter-patient variability in ACV and GCV therapeutic effects.
Journal Article
Corowa-kun: A messenger app chatbot delivers COVID-19 vaccine information, Japan 2021
2022
There is a long history in Japan of public concerns about vaccine adverse events. Few studies have assessed how mobile messenger apps affect COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.
Corowa-kun, a free chatbot, was created on February 6, 2021 in LINE, the most popular messenger app in Japan. Corowa-kun provides instant, automated answers to 70 frequently asked COVID-19 vaccine questions. A cross-sectional survey with 21 questions was performed within Corowa-kun during April 5–12, 2021.
A total of 59,676 persons used Corowa-kun during February–April 2021. Of them, 10,192 users (17%) participated in the survey. Median age was 55 years (range 16–97), and most were female (74%). COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy reported by survey respondents decreased from 41% to 20% after using Corowa-kun. Of the 20% who remained hesitant, 16% (1,675) were unsure, and 4% (364) did not intend to be vaccinated. Factors associated with vaccine hesitancy were: age 16–34 (odds ratio [OR] = 3.7; 95% confidential interval [CI]: 3.0–4.6, compared to age ≥ 65), female sex (OR = 2.4; Cl: 2.1–2.8), and history of a previous vaccine side-effect (OR = 2.5; Cl: 2.2–2.9). Being a physician (OR = 0.2; Cl: 0.1–0.4) and having received a flu vaccine the prior season (OR = 0.4; Cl: 0.3–0.4) were protective.
A substantial number of people used the chabot in a short period. Mobile messenger apps could be leveraged to provide accurate vaccine information and to investigate vaccine intention and risk factors for vaccine hesitancy.
Journal Article
Efficient Simulator for P2P Energy Trading: Customizable Bid Preferences for Trading Agents
by
Suzuki, Yosuke
,
Yamada, Yuji
,
Tanaka, Kenji
in
Alternative energy sources
,
Analysis
,
Behavior
2024
Given the accelerating global movement towards decarbonization, the importance of promoting renewable energy (RE) adoption and ensuring efficient transactions in energy markets is increasing worldwide. However, renewable energy sources, including photovoltaic (PV) systems, are subject to output fluctuations due to weather conditions, requiring large-scale backup power to balance supply and demand. This makes trading electricity from large-scale PV systems connected to the existing grid challenging. To address this, peer-to-peer (P2P) energy markets where individual prosumers can trade excess power within their local communities have been garnering attention. This study introduces a simulator for P2P energy trading, designed to account for the diverse behaviors and objectives of participants within a market mechanism. The simulator incorporates two risk aversion parameters: one related to transaction timing, expressed through order prices, and another related to forecast errors, managed by adjusting trade volumes. This allows participants to customize their trading strategies, resulting in more realistic analyses of trading outcomes. To explore the effects of these risk aversion settings, we conduct a case study with 120 participants, including both consumers and prosumers, using real data from household smart meters collected on sunny and cloudy days. Our analysis shows that participants with higher aversion to transaction timing tend to settle trades earlier, often resulting in unnecessary transactions due to forecast inaccuracies. Furthermore, trading outcomes are significantly influenced by weather conditions: sunny days typically benefit buyers through lower settlement prices, while cloudy days favor sellers who execute trades closer to their actual needs. These findings demonstrate the trade-off between early execution and forecast error losses, emphasizing the simulator’s ability to analyze trading outcomes while accounting for participant risk aversion preferences.
Journal Article
Comprehensive and Comparative Analysis of GAM-Based PV Power Forecasting Models Using Multidimensional Tensor Product Splines against Machine Learning Techniques
2021
In recent years, as photovoltaic (PV) power generation has rapidly increased on a global scale, there is a growing need for a highly accurate power generation forecasting model that is easy to implement for a wide range of electric utilities. Against this background, this study proposes a PV power forecasting model based on the generalized additive model (GAM) and compares its forecasting accuracy with four popular machine learning methods: k-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and random forest. The empirical analysis provides an intuitive interpretation of the multidimensional smooth trends estimated by the GAM as tensor product splines and confirms the validity of the proposed modeling structure. The effectiveness of GAM is particularly evident in trend completion for missing data, where it is able to flexibly express the tangled trend structure inherent in time series data, and thus has an advantage not only in interpretability but also in improving forecast accuracy.
Journal Article
Efficient Risk Management for Distributed Clean Energy: Principal Component based Weather Derivatives
2024
As global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions intensify, the integration of renewable energy has brought to the critical need for effective volumetric risk hedging strategies, particularly at the local level. However, existing financial instruments based on total power output, such as wind power futures, fall short in local hedging. This study introduces Principal Component (PC) derivatives designed for the solar power sector, using multi-regional solar radiation as the underlying to overcome data handling complexities. In particular, by incorporating our previous concept of prediction error derivatives, we provide a unique solution to complex pricing to help manage cash flow volatility risks. In addition, we propose PC derivatives based on solar radiation residuals to hedge volumetric risks. Empirical analysis shows that our PC derivatives outperform existing widearea derivatives in terms of hedge effectiveness, with a 20% increase over area-specific derivatives. Using as few as three or four PC derivatives can provide comprehensive coverage across different areas, enhancing market liquidity and creating an efficient transaction framework. Our results highlight the practical benefits of this approach, including the potential to reduce transaction costs by countertrading in different regions.
Journal Article