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There has been renewed call for the global expansion of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) under the framework of HIV treatment as prevention (TasP). However, population-level sustainability of this strategy has not been characterized. We used population-level longitudinal data from province-wide registries including plasma viral load, CD4 count, drug resistance, HAART use, HIV diagnoses, AIDS incidence, and HIV-related mortality. We fitted two Poisson regression models over the study period, to relate estimated HIV incidence and the number of individuals on HAART and the percentage of virologically suppressed individuals. HAART coverage, median pre-HAART CD4 count, and HAART adherence increased over time and were associated with increasing virological suppression and decreasing drug resistance. AIDS incidence decreased from 6.9 to 1.4 per 100,000 population (80% decrease, p = 0.0330) and HIV-related mortality decreased from 6.5 to 1.3 per 100,000 population (80% decrease, p = 0.0115). New HIV diagnoses declined from 702 to 238 cases (66% decrease; p = 0.0004) with a consequent estimated decline in HIV incident cases from 632 to 368 cases per year (42% decrease; p = 0.0003). Finally, our models suggested that for each increase of 100 individuals on HAART, the estimated HIV incidence decreased 1.2% and for every 1% increase in the number of individuals suppressed on HAART, the estimated HIV incidence also decreased by 1%. Our results show that HAART expansion between 1996 and 2012 in BC was associated with a sustained and profound population-level decrease in morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. Our findings support the long-term effectiveness and sustainability of HIV treatment as prevention within an adequately resourced environment with no financial barriers to diagnosis, medical care or antiretroviral drugs. The 2013 Consolidated World Health Organization Antiretroviral Therapy Guidelines offer a unique opportunity to further evaluate TasP in other settings, particularly within generalized epidemics, and resource-limited setting, as advocated by UNAIDS.

Results of cohort studies and mathematical models have suggested that increased coverage with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) could reduce HIV transmission. We aimed to estimate the association between plasma HIV-1 viral load, HAART coverage, and number of new cases of HIV in the population of a Canadian province. We undertook a population-based study of HAART coverage and HIV transmission in British Columbia, Canada. Data for number of HIV tests done and new HIV diagnoses were obtained from the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control. Data for viral load, CD4 cell count, and HAART use were extracted from the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS population-based registries. We modelled trends of new HIV-positive tests and number of individuals on HAART using generalised additive models. Poisson log-linear regression models were used to estimate the association between new HIV diagnoses and viral load, year, and number of individuals on HAART. Between 1996 and 2009, the number of individuals actively receiving HAART increased from 837 to 5413 (547% increase; p=0·002), and the number of new HIV diagnoses fell from 702 to 338 per year (52% decrease; p=0·001). The overall correlation between number of individuals on HAART and number of individuals newly testing positive for HIV per year was −0·89 (p<0·0001). For every 100 additional individuals on HAART, the number of new HIV cases decreased by a factor of 0·97 (95% CI 0·96–0·98), and per 1 log 10 decrease in viral load, the number of new HIV cases decreased by a factor of 0·86 (0·75–0·98). We have shown a strong population-level association between increasing HAART coverage, decreased viral load, and decreased number of new HIV diagnoses per year. Our results support the proposed secondary benefit of HAART used within existing medical guidelines to reduce HIV transmission. Ministry of Health Services and Ministry of Healthy Living and Sport, Province of British Columbia; US National Institute on Drug Abuse; US National Institutes of Health; Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

The cascade of HIV care has become a focal point for implementation efforts to maximise the individual and public health benefits of antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to characterise longitudinal changes in engagement with the cascade of HIV care in British Columbia, Canada, from 1996 to 2011. We used estimates of provincial HIV prevalence from the Public Health Agency of Canada and linked provincial population-level data to define, longitudinally, the numbers of individuals in each of the eight stages of the cascade of HIV care (HIV infected, diagnosed, linked to HIV care, retained in HIV care, highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) indicated, on HAART, adherent to HAART, and virologically suppressed) in British Columbia from 1996 to 2011. We used sensitivity analyses to determine the sensitivity of cascade-stage counts to variations in their definitions. 13 140 people were classified as diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in British Columbia during the study period. We noted substantial improvements over time in the proportions of individuals at each stage of the cascade of care. Based on prevalence estimates, the proportion of unidentified HIV-positive individuals decreased from 49·0% (estimated range 36·2–57·5%) in 1996 to 29·0% (11·6–40·7%) in 2011, and the proportion of HIV-positive people with viral suppression reached 34·6% (29·0–43·1%) in 2011. Careful mapping of the cascade of care is crucial to understanding what further efforts are needed to maximise the beneficial effects of available interventions and so inform efforts to contain the spread of HIV/AIDS. British Columbia Ministry of Health, US National Institute on Drug Abuse (National Institutes of Health).

To define a population-level cohort of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the province of British Columbia from available registries and administrative datasets using a validated case-finding algorithm. Individuals were identified for possible cohort inclusion from the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS (CfE) drug treatment program (antiretroviral therapy) and laboratory testing datasets (plasma viral load (pVL) and CD4 diagnostic test results), the BC Centre for Disease Control (CDC) provincial HIV surveillance database (positive HIV tests), as well as databases held by the BC Ministry of Health (MoH); the Discharge Abstract Database (hospitalizations), the Medical Services Plan (physician billing) and PharmaNet databases (additional HIV-related medications). A validated case-finding algorithm was applied to distinguish true HIV cases from those likely to have been misclassified. The sensitivity of the algorithms was assessed as the proportion of confirmed cases (those with records in the CfE, CDC and MoH databases) positively identified by each algorithm. A priori hypotheses were generated and tested to verify excluded cases. A total of 25,673 individuals were identified as having at least one HIV-related health record. Among 9,454 unconfirmed cases, the selected case-finding algorithm identified 849 individuals believed to be HIV-positive. The sensitivity of this algorithm among confirmed cases was 88%. Those excluded from the cohort were more likely to be female (44.4% vs. 22.5%; p<0.01), had a lower mortality rate (2.18 per 100 person years (100PY) vs. 3.14/100PY; p<0.01), and had lower median rates of health service utilization (days of medications dispensed: 9745/100PY vs. 10266/100PY; p<0.01; days of inpatient care: 29/100PY vs. 98/100PY; p<0.01; physician billings: 602/100PY vs. 2,056/100PY; p<0.01). The application of validated case-finding algorithms and subsequent hypothesis testing provided a strong framework for defining a population-level cohort of HIV infected people in BC using administrative databases.

The impact of the emergence of drug-resistance mutations on mortality is not well characterized in antiretroviral-naïve patients first starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Patients may be able to sustain immunologic function with resistant virus, and there is limited evidence that reduced sensitivity to antiretrovirals leads to rapid disease progression or death. We undertook the present analysis to characterize the determinants of mortality in a prospective cohort study with a median of nearly 5 y of follow-up. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the emergence of drug-resistance mutations on survival among persons initiating HAART. Participants were antiretroviral therapy naïve at entry and initiated triple combination antiretroviral therapy between August 1, 1996, and September 30, 1999. Marginal structural modeling was used to address potential confounding between time-dependent variables in the Cox proportional hazard regression models. In this analysis resistance to any class of drug was considered as a binary time-dependent exposure to the risk of death, controlling for the effect of other time-dependent confounders. We also considered each separate class of mutation as a binary time-dependent exposure, while controlling for the presence/absence of other mutations. A total of 207 deaths were identified among 1,138 participants over the follow-up period, with an all cause mortality rate of 18.2%. Among the 679 patients with HIV-drug-resistance genotyping done before initiating HAART, HIV-drug resistance to any class was observed in 53 (7.8%) of the patients. During follow-up, HIV-drug resistance to any class was observed in 302 (26.5%) participants. Emergence of any resistance was associated with mortality (hazard ratio: 1.75 [95% confidence interval: 1.27, 2.43]). When we considered each class of resistance separately, persons who exhibited resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors had the highest risk: mortality rates were 3.02 times higher (95% confidence interval: 1.99, 4.57) for these patients than for those who did not exhibit this type of resistance. We demonstrated that emergence of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors was associated with a greater risk of subsequent death than was emergence of protease inhibitor resistance. Future research is needed to identify the particular subpopulations of men and women at greatest risk and to elucidate the impact of resistance over a longer follow-up period.

Background The burden of HCV among those living with HIV remains a major public health challenge. We aimed to characterize trends in healthcare-related visits (HRV) of people living with HIV ( PLW-HIV) and those living with HIV and HCV (PLW-HIV/HCV), in British Columbia (BC), and to identify risk factors associated with the highest HRV rates over time. Methods Eligible individuals, recruited from the BC Seek and Treat for Optimal Prevention of HIV/AIDS population-based retrospective cohort ( N  = 3955), were ≥ 18 years old, first started combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 01/01/2000–31/12/2013, and were followed for ≥6 months until 31/12/2014. The main outcome was HRV rate. The main exposure was HIV/HCV co-infection status. We built a confounder non-linear mixed effects model, adjusting for several demographic and time-dependent factors. Results HRV rates have decreased since 2000 in both groups. The overall age-sex standardized HRV rate (per person-year) among PLW-HIV and PLW-HIV/HCV was 21.11 (95% CI 20.96–21.25) and 41.69 (95% CI 41.51–41.88), respectively. The excess in HRV in the co-infected group was associated with late presentation for ART, history of injection drug use, sub-optimal ART adherence and a higher number of comorbidities. The adjusted HRV rate ratio for PLW-HIV/HCV in comparison to PLW-HIV was 1.18 (95% CI 1.13–1.24). Conclusions Although HRV rates have decreased over time in both groups, PLW-HIV/HCV had 18% higher HRV than those only living with HIV. Our results highlight several modifiable risk factors that could be targeted as potential means to minimize the disease burden of this population and of the healthcare system.

HIV patients on suppressive antiretroviral therapy have undetectable viremia making it impossible to screen plasma HIV tropism if regimen change is required during suppression. We investigated the prevalence and predictors of tropism switch from CCR5-using (\"R5\") to non-CCR5-using (\"non-R5\") before and after viral suppression in the initially therapy-naïve HOMER cohort from British Columbia, Canada. We compared pre-therapy and post-suppression viral genotypic tropism in patients who initiated on PI/NNRTI-based antiretroviral regimens between 1996-1999 (n = 462). Virologic suppression was defined as having two consecutive viral loads of <500 copies/mL, which was the sensitivity limit of most viral load assays at the time. Viral tropism was inferred by V3-loop-population-sequencing and geno2pheno[coreceptor] with cutoff at 5.75% false positive rate (FPR). When virologic suppression was defined as two-consecutive viral loads <500 copies/mL, 34 (9%) of the 397 patients with pre-therapy R5-virus switched to non-R5 at viral load rebound after a median of 19 months (IQR 8-41 months) of undetectable viremia. Duration of viral load suppression was not a predictor of switch, but lower CD4 count during suppression (median 400 versus 250 cells/mL) and an increased prevalence of pre-therapy non-R5 HIV by \"deep\" sequencing (median 0.2% versus 3.2%) were independently associated with switch (p = 0.03 and p<0.0001, respectively). R5-to-non-R5 tropism switches in plasma virus after undetectable viremia were relatively rare events especially among patients with higher CD4 counts during virologic suppression. Our study supports the use of pre-suppression tropism results if maraviroc is being considered during virologic suppression in this subgroup of patients.

We developed and validated a new and simple metric, the Programmatic Compliance Score (PCS), based on the IAS-USA antiretroviral therapy management guidelines for HIV-infected adults, as a predictor of all-cause mortality, at a program-wide level. We hypothesized that non-compliance would be associated with the highest probability of mortality. 3543 antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected patients aged ≥19 years who initiated antiretroviral therapy between January 1, 2000 and August 31, 2009 in British Columbia (BC), Canada, were followed until August 31, 2010. The PCS is composed by six non-performance indicators based on the IAS-USA guidelines: (1) having <3 CD4 count tests in the first year after starting antiretroviral therapy; (2) having <3 plasma viral load tests in the first year after starting antiretroviral therapy; (3) not having drug resistance testing done prior to starting antiretroviral therapy; (4) starting on a non-recommended antiretroviral therapy regimen; (5) starting therapy with CD4 <200 cells/mm(3); and (6) not achieving viral suppression within 6 months since antiretroviral therapy initiation. The sum of these six indicators was used to develop the PCS score - higher score indicates poorer performance. The main outcome was all-cause mortality. Each PCS component was independently associated with mortality. In the mortality analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for PCS ≥4 versus 0 was 22.37 (95% CI 10.46-47.84). PCS was strongly associated with all-cause mortality. These results lend independent validation to the IAS-USA treatment guidelines for HIV-infected adults. Further efforts are warranted to enhance the PCS as a means to further improve clinical outcomes. These should be specifically evaluated and targeted at healthcare providers and patients.

The lower limit of detection of the original Roche Amplicor HIV plasma viral load (pVL) assay (50 copies/mL) has defined HIV treatment success. The Amplicor assay, however, has been replaced by the Roche TaqMan assay(s). Changes to the limits of detection and calibration have not been validated for clinical utility. Sudden increases in the number of patients with detectable pVL have been reported following the introduction of the TaqMan version 1 assay. Between October 2009 and April 2010 all routine pVL samples from British Columbia, Canada, with 40-250 copies/mL by TaqMan were re-tested by Amplicor (N = 1198). Subsequent short-term virological and resistance outcomes were followed in patients with unchanged therapy (N = 279; median 3.2 months follow-up). TaqMan and Amplicor values correlated poorly at low pVL values. Low-level pVL by TaqMan was not associated with impending short-term virological failure; only 17% of patients with 40-250 copies/mL by TaqMan had detectable pVL by Amplicor at follow-up. During the follow-up period only 20% of patients had an increase in pVL by TaqMan (median [IQR]: 80 [36-283] copies/mL). In addition, in ~2.4% of samples pVL was dramatically underestimated by TaqMan due to poor binding of the proprietary TaqMan primers. The replacement of Amplicor with the TaqMan assay has altered the previously accepted definition of HIV treatment failure without any evidence to support the clinical relevance of the new definition. Given the systematic differences in measurement in the low pVL range the British Columbia HIV treatment guidelines now use a threshold of >250 copies/mL by TaqMan to define treatment failure.

Introduction Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)–associated renal dysfunction may abate when TDF is replaced with abacavir (ABC). The extent to which the third drug atazanavir contributes to renal dysfunction is unclear. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on adults who had plasma viral load (pVL)<200 copies/mL for≥six months while receiving TDF/lamivudine (3TC) – or TDF/emtricitabine (FTC)–based antiretroviral therapy (ART), then switched to ABC/3TC while retaining the third drug in the ART regimen. CD4, pVL, creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), serum phosphorus, urine albumin to creatinine ratio and serum lipids were compared between pre‐switch baseline and 3, 6 and 12 months after the switch to ABC. Results A total of 286 patients switched from TDF to ABC between 2004 and 2014: 232 (81%) male, median age 48 years (interquartile range (IQR) 42, 56). The third drug was atazanavir (± ritonavir) in 141 (49%) cases. The pVL was<50 copies/mL in 93 to 96% at all time points. Median serum creatinine was 93 µmol/L (IQR 80–111) at baseline and decreased to 88 µmol/L (IQR 78–98) at 12 months after the switch to ABC. Median eGFR increased from 74 (IQR 60–88) mL/min at baseline to 80 mL/min (IQR 69–89) at 12 months. Results were not significantly different between patients on atazanavir versus those on another third drug. Conclusions Viral suppression was maintained among patients who switched from TDF/3TC or TDF/FTC to ABC/3TC. Serum creatinine and eGFR improved up to 12 months after switching to ABC/3TC, irrespective of whether or not patients were also receiving atazanavir±ritonavir.