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75 result(s) for "Yool, Andrew"
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Global‐Scale Evaluation of Coastal Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in a Fully Coupled Earth System Model
The Paris Agreement plans for “net‐zero” carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during the second half of the 21st century. However, reducing emissions from some sectors is challenging, and “net‐zero” permits carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activities. One CDR scheme is ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), which proposes dissolving basic minerals into seawater to increase its buffering capacity for CO2. While modeling studies have often investigated OAE at basin or global scale, some proposals focus on readily accessible coastal shelves, with TA added through the dissolution of seafloor olivine sands. Critically, by settling and dissolving sands on shallow seafloors, this retains the added TA in near‐surface waters in direct contact with atmospheric CO2. To investigate this, we add dissolved TA at a rate of ∼29 Teq y−1 to the global shelves (<100m) of an Earth system model (UKESM1) running a high emissions scenario. As UKESM1 is fully coupled, wider effects of OAE‐mediated increase in ocean CO2 uptake –e.g. atmospheric xCO2, air temperature and marine pH– are fully quantified. Applying OAE from 2020 to 2100 decreases atmospheric xCO2 ∼10 ppm, and increases air‐to‐sea CO2 uptake ∼8%. In‐line with other studies, CO2 uptake per unit of TA added occurs at a rate of ∼0.8 mol C (mol TA)−1. Significantly for monitoring, advection of added TA results in ∼50% of CO2 uptake occurring remotely from OAE operations, and the model also exhibits noticeable land carbon reservoir changes. While practical uncertainties and model representation caveats remain, this analysis estimates the effectiveness of this specific OAE scheme to assist with net‐zero planning. Plain Language Summary The Paris Agreement aims to limit climate warming below 2.0°C by achieving net‐zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during the 21st century. As they are difficult to abate for some sectors of activity, carbon dioxide removal schemes will be needed to offset residual emissions. One scheme, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), proposes elevating the ocean's storage capacity for CO2 by increasing its alkalinity by adding basic minerals as solutions or particulates. The latter require time to dissolve but risk sinking away from the ocean's surface where they absorb CO2. Coastal OAE proposes adding particulate minerals on the shallow continental shelves, where dissolution products will remain within the upper water column. Here we investigate coastal OAE by adding alkalinity to the ocean of a state‐of‐the‐art Earth system model to quantify enhanced CO2 uptake, where this occurs, its efficiency, and its impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. Overall, coastal OAE increased CO2 uptake, and did so with an efficiency of almost 0.8 mol carbon per equivalent alkalinity. Significantly, almost 50% of the additional CO2 uptake took place away from OAE operations, while a noticeable fraction of ocean uptake was balanced by land losses, both factors indicating challenges for monitoring the effectiveness of real‐world deployment. Key Points Coastal ocean alkalinity enhancement investigated using state‐of‐the‐art Earth system model under high emissions scenario Alkalinity addition of ∼29 Teq y−1 during 2020–2100 increases ocean CO2 uptake 8% and decreases atmospheric CO2 by 10 ppm Almost 50% of extra CO2 uptake is remote from ocean alkalinity enhancement operations with implications for measurement, reporting and verification
Where and When the Mesopelagic Carbon Budget Balances, if at All
The ocean biological carbon pump (BCP) transports organic matter from the surface to the deep ocean. Accurately quantifying the efficiency of the BCP is essential for understanding potential climate feedbacks and entails measuring the flux of organic material in and out of the mesopelagic layer (approximately 100–1,000 m). Observational estimates are often restricted to measuring the BCP efficiency over short timescales. Here we use an ocean biogeochemical model to diagnose where, and on what timescales, the mesopelagic is sufficiently in steady state that balancing the carbon budget may be possible. For the majority of the ocean the sources and sinks of organic carbon in the mesopelagic do not balance on timescales shorter than 1 year. Assuming steady state risks falsely inferring the existence of missing processes or the magnitudes of known ones to close the budget and will lead to incorrect estimates of the strength of the BCP.
Mind the gap: The impact of missing data on the calculation of phytoplankton phenology metrics
Annual phytoplankton blooms are key events in marine ecosystems and interannual variability in bloom timing has important implications for carbon export and the marine food web. The degree of match or mismatch between the timing of phytoplankton and zooplankton annual cycles may impact larval survival with knock‐on effects at higher trophic levels. Interannual variability in phytoplankton bloom timing may also be used to monitor changes in the pelagic ecosystem that are either naturally or anthropogenically forced. Seasonality metrics that use satellite ocean color data have been developed to quantify the timing of phenological events which allow for objective comparisons between different regions and over long periods of time. However, satellite data sets are subject to frequent gaps due to clouds and atmospheric aerosols, or persistent data gaps in winter due to low sun angle. Here we quantify the impact of these gaps on determining the start and peak timing of phytoplankton blooms. We use the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model that assimilates SeaWiFS data as a gap‐free time series and derive an empirical relationship between the percentage of missing data and error in the phenology metric. Applied globally, we find that the majority of subpolar regions have typical errors of 30 days for the bloom initiation date and 15 days for the peak date. The errors introduced by intermittent data must be taken into account in phenological studies. Key Points Global maps of seasonality metrics and the associated uncertainty are presented Bloom start and peak date errors are 30 and 15 days respectively in most regions The error in bloom start date has a directional bias that changes with latitude
Diverse Responses of Upper Ocean Temperatures to Chlorophyll‐Induced Solar Absorption Across Different Coastal Upwelling Regions
Chlorophyll in phytoplankton absorbs solar radiation (SR) and affects the thermal structure and dynamics within upwelling regions. However, research on this process across global‐scale coastal upwelling systems is still lacking. Here, we use a coupled ocean‐biogeochemical model to investigate differing responses to chlorophyll‐induced solar absorption between Pacific and Atlantic coastal upwelling regions. Chlorophyll‐induced solar absorption leads to colder Pacific coastal upwelling but warmer Atlantic coastal upwelling. In the Pacific, the shading effect of the surface chlorophyll maximum leads to colder subsurface water, which is then upwelled, contributing to cooling. The more stratified upper ocean leads to shallower mixed layer depth, intensifying offshore transport and upwelling. In the Atlantic, the absorption of SR by the subsurface chlorophyll maximum causes warmer and weaker upwelling. The processes described, in turn, trigger positive feedback to ocean biogeochemistry and potentially interact with climate dynamics, underscoring the necessity to incorporate them into Earth system models. Plain Language Summary Chlorophyll and related pigments in phytoplankton play a key role in absorbing solar radiation and regulating ocean temperatures. In some coastal upwelling regions along the eastern boundaries of oceans, where chlorophyll concentrations are high, studies have suggested that the solar heat absorbed by chlorophyll can influence the temperatures and strength of upwelling. However, there is no study focusing on this process across global coastal upwelling zones. Here, we use computer simulations of ocean and phytoplankton to explore the effects of chlorophyll‐induced solar absorption on upwelling temperatures and strength on a global scale. Our study suggests that this effect varies between Pacific and Atlantic coastal upwelling regions due to their different spatial distributions of chlorophyll: surface chlorophyll in the Pacific warms the water after it has risen to the surface and as it is flowing offshore, while subsurface chlorophyll in the Atlantic warms the water before it rises to the surface. As a result, chlorophyll‐induced solar absorption leads to colder and stronger coastal upwelling in Pacific but warmer and weaker upwelling in Atlantic. Given the limited consideration of this process in previous studies, we emphasize the importance of incorporating it, along with regional differences, into future simulations. Key Points Chlorophyll‐induced solar absorption leads to colder Pacific coastal upwelling but warmer Atlantic coastal upwelling In Pacific, chlorophyll‐induced temperature variations intensify ocean stratification and coastal upwelling, in contrast to Atlantic Chlorophyll‐induced variations in ocean physics trigger positive feedback, enhancing chlorophyll distributions in coastal upwelling regions
Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6
Purpose of Review The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models
Purpose of Review Assessment of the impact of ocean resolution in Earth System models on the mean state, variability, and future projections and discussion of prospects for improved parameterisations to represent the ocean mesoscale. Recent Findings The majority of centres participating in CMIP6 employ ocean components with resolutions of about 1 degree in their full Earth System models (eddy-parameterising models). In contrast, there are also models submitted to CMIP6 (both DECK and HighResMIP) that employ ocean components of approximately 1/4 degree and 1/10 degree (eddy-present and eddy-rich models). Evidence to date suggests that whether the ocean mesoscale is explicitly represented or parameterised affects not only the mean state of the ocean but also the climate variability and the future climate response, particularly in terms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean. Recent developments in scale-aware parameterisations of the mesoscale are being developed and will be included in future Earth System models. Summary Although the choice of ocean resolution in Earth System models will always be limited by computational considerations, for the foreseeable future, this choice is likely to affect projections of climate variability and change as well as other aspects of the Earth System. Future Earth System models will be able to choose increased ocean resolution and/or improved parameterisation of processes to capture physical processes with greater fidelity.
Effect of sampling bias on global estimates of ocean carbon export
Shipboard sampling of ocean biogeochemical properties is necessarily limited by logistical and practical constraints. As a result, the majority of observations are obtained for the spring/summer period and in regions relatively accessible from a major port. This limitation may bias the conceptual understanding we have of the spatial and seasonal variability in important components of the Earth system. Here we examine the influence of sampling bias on global estimates of carbon export flux by sub-sampling a biogeochemical model to simulate real, realistic and random sampling. We find that both the sparseness and the ‘clumpy’ character of shipboard flux observations generate errors in estimates of globally extrapolated export flux of up to ∼ ± 20%. The use of autonomous technologies, such as the Biogeochemical-Argo network, will reduce the uncertainty in global flux estimates to ∼ ± 3% by both increasing the sample size and reducing clumpiness in the spatial distribution of observations. Nevertheless, determining the climate change-driven trend in global export flux may be hampered due to the uncertainty introduced by interannual variability in sampling patterns.
The significance of nitrification for oceanic new production
Nitrogen does the rounds Some 16% of the original Amazon forest has been cleared for agriculture, but much of that land is no longer in use and is starting to regrow. Such 'secondary forests' are becoming increasingly important as tropical land-use change results in larger areas that have gone through agricultural phases. A new study of Amazon forest areas between 3 and 70 years into their recovery reveals nitrogen and phosphorus cycling processes consistent with large losses of nitrogen during land use change. Nitrogen availability is ephemeral, and readily disrupted by either natural or anthropogenic disturbance. Understanding how the nutrient cycling processes of secondary forest succession should contribute to the better management Amazonian ecosystems. Elsewhere in the nitrogen cycle, an analysis of virtually all extant data on open oceanic nitrification, in conjunction with a global ecosystem model, demonstrates that the generally accepted assumptions concerning its distribution are incorrect. Much of the nitrate taken up by the oceans is generated through recent nitrification near the surface and, at the global scale, nitrification accounts for about half of the nitrate consumed by growing phytoplankton. This means that many previous attempts to quantify marine carbon export may be significant overestimates. This study synthesizes data from several published datasets to provide a global estimate of the impact of nitrification on oceanic new production. The flux of organic material sinking to depth is a major control on the inventory of carbon in the ocean 1 . To first order, the oceanic system is at equilibrium such that what goes down must come up 2 . Because the export flux is difficult to measure directly, it is routinely estimated indirectly by quantifying the amount of phytoplankton growth, or primary production, fuelled by the upward flux of nitrate 3 . To do so it is necessary to take into account other sources of biologically available nitrogen. However, the generation of nitrate by nitrification in surface waters has only recently received attention. Here we perform the first synthesis of open-ocean measurements of the specific rate of surface nitrification 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 and use these to configure a global biogeochemical model 13 , 14 to quantify the global role of nitrification. We show that for much of the world ocean a substantial fraction of the nitrate taken up is generated through recent nitrification near the surface. At the global scale, nitrification accounts for about half of the nitrate consumed by growing phytoplankton. A consequence is that many previous attempts to quantify marine carbon export, particularly those based on inappropriate use of the f -ratio (a measure of the efficiency of the ‘biological pump’), are significant overestimates.
UKESM1.1: development and evaluation of an updated configuration of the UK Earth System Model
Many Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models have exhibited a substantial cold bias in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) in the latter part of the 20th century. An overly strong negative aerosol forcing has been suggested as a leading contributor to this bias. An updated configuration of UK Earth System Model (UKESM) version 1, UKESM1.1, has been developed with the aim of reducing the historical cold bias in this model. Changes implemented include an improved representation of SO2 dry deposition, along with several other smaller modifications to the aerosol scheme and a retuning of some uncertain parameters of the fully coupled Earth system model. The Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, a six-member historical ensemble and a subset of future scenario simulations are completed. In addition, the total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF), its components and the effective and transient climate sensitivities are also computed. The UKESM1.1 preindustrial climate is warmer than UKESM1 by up to 0.75 K, and a significant improvement in the historical GMST record is simulated, with the magnitude of the cold bias reduced by over 50 %. The warmer climate increases ocean heat uptake in the Northern Hemisphere oceans and reduces Arctic sea ice, which is in better agreement with observations. Changes to the aerosol and related cloud properties are a driver of the improved GMST simulation despite only a modest reduction in the magnitude of the negative aerosol ERF (which increases by +0.08 Wm-2). The total anthropogenic ERF increases from 1.76 Wm-2 in UKESM1 to 1.84 Wm-2 in UKESM1.1. The effective climate sensitivity (5.27 K) and transient climate response (2.64 K) remain largely unchanged from UKESM1 (5.36 and 2.76 K respectively).
The link between surface and sub-surface chlorophyll-a in the centre of the Atlantic subtropical gyres: a comparison of observations and models
Satellite observations have given us a clear idea of the changes in chlorophyll in the surface ocean on both a seasonal and interannual basis, but repeated observations at depth are much rarer. The permanently-stratified subtropical gyres in the Atlantic are highly oligotrophic, with most production centred on a deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) just above the nitracline. This study explores the variations in this feature in the core of both gyres, considering both seasonal and interannual variations, and the linkages between changes at the surface and sub-surface. The in situ observations come from the Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT), a long-running UK monitoring programme, and also from biogeochemical Argo floats. AMT provides measurements spanning more than 25 years directed through the centres of these gyres, but samples only 2 to 4 months per year and thus cannot resolve the seasonal variations, whereas the profiling floats give coverage throughout the year, but without the rigid spatial repeatability. These observational records are contrasted with representation of the centres of the gyres in two different biogeochemical models: MEDUSA and ERSEM, thus fulfilling one of AMT’s stated aims: the assessment of biogeochemical models. Whilst the four datasets show broadly the same seasonal patterns and that the DCM shallows when surface chlorophyll increases, the depth and peak concentration of the DCM differ among datasets. For most of the datasets the column-integrated chlorophyll for both gyres is around 19 mg m -2 (with the AMT fluorescence-derived values being much lower); however the MEDUSA model has a disparity between the northern and southern gyres that is not understood. Although the seasonal increase in surface chlorophyll is tied to a commensurate decrease in concentration at depth, on an interannual basis years with enhanced surface levels of chlorophyll correspond to increases at depth. Satellite-derived observations of surface chlorophyll concentration act as a good predictor of interannual changes in DCM depth for both gyres during their autumn season, but provide less skill in spring.