Explore the vast range of titles available.

The authors have decomposed the anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing into direct contributions from each aerosol species to the planetary energy balance through absorption and scattering of solar radiation, indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosol on solar and infrared radiation through droplet and crystal nucleation on aerosol, and semidirect effects through the influence of solar absorption on the distribution of clouds. A three-mode representation of the aerosol in version 5.1 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.1) yields global annual mean radiative forcing estimates for each of these forcing mechanisms that are within 0.1 W m−2of estimates using a more complex seven-mode representation that distinguishes between fresh and aged black carbon and primary organic matter. Simulating fresh black carbon particles separately from internally mixed accumulation mode particles is found to be important only near fossil fuel sources. In addition to the usual large indirect effect on solar radiation, this study finds an unexpectedly large positive longwave indirect effect (because of enhanced cirrus produced by homogenous nucleation of ice crystals on anthropogenic sulfate), small shortwave and longwave semidirect effects, and a small direct effect (because of cancelation and interactions of direct effects of black carbon and sulfate). Differences between the three-mode and seven-mode versions are significantly larger (up to 0.2 W m−2) when the hygroscopicity of primary organic matter is decreased from 0.1 to 0 and transfer of the primary carbonaceous aerosol to the accumulation mode in the seven-mode version requires more hygroscopic material coating the primary particles. Radiative forcing by cloudborne anthropogenic black carbon is only −0.07 W m−2.

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980–2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/ Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) −0.26Wm−2; −0.06 to −0.49Wm−2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of −0.42Wm−2; −0.33 to −0.50Wm−2, including adjustment for missing aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to −58 %) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is −1.17Wm−2; −0.71 to −1.44Wm−2. Thus adjustments, including clouds, typically cause greater forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global aerosol RF peaks in most models around 1980, declining thereafter with only weak sensitivity to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). One model, however, projects approximately stable RF levels, while two show increasingly negative RF due to nitrate (not included in most models). Aerosol ERF, in contrast, becomes more negative during 1980 to 2000. During this period, increased Asian emissions appear to have a larger impact on aerosol ERF than European and North American decreases due to their being upwind of the large, relatively pristine Pacific Ocean. There is no clear relationship between historical aerosol ERF and climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 subset of ACCMIP models. In the ACCMIP/CMIP5 models, historical aerosol ERF of about −0.8 to −1.5Wm−2 is most consistent with observed historical warming. Aerosol ERF masks a large portion of greenhouse forcing during the late 20th and early 21st century at the global scale. Regionally, aerosol ERF is so large that net forcing is negative over most industrialized and biomass burning regions through 1980, but remains strongly negative only over east and southeast Asia by 2000. Net forcing is strongly positive by 1980 over most deserts, the Arctic, Australia, and most tropical oceans. Both the magnitude of and area covered by positive forcing expand steadily thereafter.

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02 Wm−2, with a mean of −0.27 Wm−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information from the other AeroCom models reduces the range and slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35 Wm−2. Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study. We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results.

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1, the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model is described. The model began as a fork of the well‐known Community Atmosphere Model, but it has evolved in new ways, and coding, performance, resolution, physical processes (primarily cloud and aerosols formulations), testing and development procedures now differ significantly. Vertical resolution was increased (from 30 to 72 layers), and the model top extended to 60 km (~0.1 hPa). A simple ozone photochemistry predicts stratospheric ozone, and the model now supports increased and more realistic variability in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. An optional improved treatment of light‐absorbing particle deposition to snowpack and ice is available, and stronger connections with Earth system biogeochemistry can be used for some science problems. Satellite and ground‐based cloud and aerosol simulators were implemented to facilitate evaluation of clouds, aerosols, and aerosol‐cloud interactions. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution, increased complexity, and more predicted and transported variables have increased the model computational cost and changed the simulations considerably. These changes required development of alternate strategies for tuning and evaluation as it was not feasible to “brute force” tune the high‐resolution configurations, so short‐term hindcasts, perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, and regionally refined simulations provided guidance on tuning and parameterization sensitivity to higher resolution. A brief overview of the model and model climate is provided. Model fidelity has generally improved compared to its predecessors and the CMIP5 generation of climate models. Plain Language Summary This study provides an overview of a new computer model of the Earth's atmosphere that is used as one component of the Department of Energy's latest Earth system model. The model can be used to help understand past, present, and future changes in Earth's behavior as the system responds to changes in atmospheric composition (like pollution and greenhouse gases), land, and water use and to explore how the atmosphere interacts with other components of the Earth system (ocean, land, biology, etc.). Physical, chemical, and biogeochemical processes treated within the atmospheric model are described, and pointers to previous and recent work are listed to provide additional information. The model is compared to present‐day observations and evaluated for some important tests that provide information about what could happen to clouds and the environment as changes occur. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are listed, as well as opportunities for future work. Key Points A brief description and evaluation is provided for the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model Model fidelity has generally improved compared to predecessors and models participating in past international model evaluations Strengths and weaknesses of the model, as well as opportunities for future work, are described

Treatment of cirrhotic patients with spontaneous peritonitis using antibiotics occasionally fails. Fungal infections may be one of the causes of antibiotic treatment failure in such patients. In this study we evaluated the clinical significance and characteristics of spontaneous fungal peritonitis (SFP). Consecutive cirrhotic patients with spontaneous peritonitis treated between 2000 and 2005 at a tertiary care center in Seoul, Korea, were included. We analyzed the clinical characteristics and the prognosis of SFP patients compared with patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). During the study period 416 patients developed spontaneous peritonitis and 15 (3.6 %) had SFP. Compared with patients with SBP, nosocomial peritonitis (peritonitis that developed after hospitalization for >72 h) was more common and the Child–Pugh score was higher in SFP patients (both, P  < 0.01). Ten patients were infected with Candida spp. ( C. albicans , 8; C. tropicalis , 1; C. glabrata , 1), and 5 with Cryptococcus neoformans . Eleven patients were co-infected with bacteria that were susceptible to the antibiotics administered. Only 5 patients were treated using appropriate anti-fungal agents. The 1-month mortality rate for SFP patients was 73.3 % (11 out of 15; median time to death, 2 days [range, 0–22]), which was significantly higher than patients with SBP alone (28.7 %, P  = 0.0007). SFP is severe complication related to high mortality in cirrhotic patients. A longer admission and a higher Child–Pugh score may be risk factors. Immediate anti-fungal treatment is warranted in patients with spontaneous peritonitis, once fungus is found in the ascitic fluid.

We conducted a systemic evaluation to describe the effect of minimal residual disease (MRD) kinetics on long-term allogeneic transplantation outcome by analyzing 95 adult transplants with Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph-positive ALL) who received first-line two courses of imatinib-based chemotherapy (median follow-up 5 years). MRD monitoring was centrally evaluated by real-time quantitative PCR (4.5 log sensitivity). After the first course of imatinib-based chemotherapy, 33 patients (34.7%) achieved at least major molecular response. On the basis of MRD kinetics by the end of two courses of imatinib-based chemotherapy, we stratified entire patients into four subgroups: early-stable molecular responders (EMRs, n =33), late molecular responders (LMRs, n =35), intermediate molecular responders (IMRs, n =9) and poor molecular responders (PMRs, n =18). Multivariate analysis showed that the most powerful factor affecting long-term transplantation outcome was MRD kinetics. Compared with EMRs, IMRs or PMRs had significantly higher risk of treatment failure in terms of relapse and disease-free survival (DFS). LMRs had a tendency toward a lower DFS. Quantitative monitoring of MRD kinetics during the first-line imatinib-based chemotherapy course is useful in identifying subgroups of Ph-positive ALL transplants at a high risk of relapse.

To investigate the risk factors for acute GVHD (aGVHD), based on NIH consensus criteria (NCC), we evaluated 775 patients who underwent allogeneic transplantation. Of them, 346 patients developed aGVHD by NCC, in whom we also analyzed factors affecting aGVHD-specific survival. The cumulative incidence of aGVHD was 44.7%, consisting of classic aGVHD ( n =320) and late-onset ( n =26). Multivariate analyses revealed that younger age ( P =0.015), unrelated donors ( P =0.004) and acute leukemia compared with other hematologic malignancies ( P =0.005) were significant risk factors for aGVHD, whereas PBSCs showed no association ( P =0.720). Multivariate analyses, with only aGVHD patients, revealed that late-onset aGVHD had superior aGVHD-specific survival to classic aGVHD ( P =0.044), and identified the association of visceral organ involvement ( P =0.002), severity of aGVHD at onset ( P =0.035) and advanced disease status ( P< 0.001) with inferior aGVHD-specific survival. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the risk and prognostic factors for aGVHD by NCC with some differences with the previous reports that were based on old criteria. The difference in the risk factors according to different criteria will give insights about the pathophysiology of GVHD. The better prognosis of late-onset aGVHD than of classic aGVHD raises the necessity for prospective trials with a large cohort focusing on the onset time.

As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the simulated BC suggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the Alps ice core observations. At Zuoqiupu on the Tibetan Plateau, models successfully simulate the higher BC concentrations observed during the non-monsoon season compared to the monsoon season but overpredict BC in both seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice core sites, some models with a BC lifetime of less than 7 days are able to capture the observed concentrations. In 2000 relative to 1850, globally and annually averaged BC surface albedo forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019Wm−2 among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high BC forcing (i.e., over 0.1W/sq. m) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel emissions in the Former USSR in 1980.

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a “La Niña-like” anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) was subsequently used for an attribution analysis. Over northern Vietnam an early-monsoon increase in precipitation is attributed to changes in both greenhouse gases and natural forcing. For central Vietnam, the observed increase in early-monsoon precipitation is reproduced by the simulation forced with greenhouse gases. However, over southern Vietnam the early-monsoon precipitation increase is less definitive where aerosols were seen to be preponderant but natural forcing through the role of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation may well be a factor that is not resolved by CCSM4. Increased early-monsoonal precipitation over the coastal lowland and deltas has the potential to amplify economic and human losses.

This paper presents a method that estimates the vehicle sideslip angle and a tire-road friction coefficient by combining measurements of a magnetometer, a global positioning system (GPS), and an inertial measurement unit (IMU). The estimation algorithm is based on a cascade structure consisting of a sensor fusing framework based on Kalman filters. Several signal conditioning techniques are used to mitigate issues related to different signal characteristics, such as latency and disturbances. The estimated sideslip angle information and a brush tire model are fused in a Kalman filter framework to estimate the tire-road friction coefficient. The performance and practical feasibility of the proposed approach were evaluated through several tests.