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Plant phenology is closely related to plant function, ecosystem services, and climate balance. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers new perspectives on plant phenology at regional and global scales. However, the effect of SIF products at different scales on phenology extraction is still unclear. Understanding of the mechanisms underlying phenological responses to environmental factors remains incomplete. Therefore, in this study, two phenological metrics for the Start of Growing Season (SOS) and the End of Growing Season (EOS) were extracted from the phenology of deciduous forests in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, utilizing SIF products at scales of 1 km, 5 km, and 50 km, and applying the Savitzky-Golay filtering method along with the dynamic threshold method. Our results showed that the 1-km resolution SIF had a significant advantage over the 5-km and 50-km resolution SIFs in terms of consistency with the extracted phenology results from the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) sites, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 4.48 and 15.49 days for SOS and EOS, respectively. For the 5-km resolution SIF, the MAEs for the same phenological metrics were 9.2 and 21.07 days. For the 50-km resolution SIF, the MAEs were 58.94 and 42.73 days. Meanwhile, this study analyzed the trends of phenology utilizing the three scales of SIF products and found a general trend of advancement. The coarser spatial resolution of the SIF data made the trend of advancement more obvious. Using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, we investigated the phenological responses to environmental factors at different scales. We found that SOS/EOS were mainly regulated by soil and air temperature, whereas the scale effect on this analysis’ results was not significant. This study has implications for optimizing the use of data, understanding ecosystem changes, predicting vegetation dynamics under global change, and developing adaptive management strategies.

NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) is a common pollutant in the atmosphere that can have serious adverse effects on the health of residents. However, the existing satellite and ground observation methods are not enough to effectively monitor the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of near-surface NO2 concentrations, which limits the development of pollutant remediation work and medical health research. Based on TROPOMI-NO2 tropospheric column concentration data, supplemented by meteorological data, atmospheric condition reanalysis data and other geographic parameters, combined with classic machine learning models and deep learning networks, we constructed an ensemble model that achieved a daily average near-surface NO2 of 0.03° exposure. In this article, a meteorological hysteretic effects term and a spatiotemporal term were designed, which considerably improved the performance of the model. Overall, our ensemble model performed better, with a 10-fold CV R2 of 0.89, an RMSE of 5.62 µg/m3, and an MAE of 4.04 µg/m3. The model also had good temporal and spatial generalization capability, with a temporal prediction R2 and a spatial prediction R2 of 0.71 and 0.81, respectively, which can be applied to a wider range of time and space. Finally, we used an ensemble model to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of NO2 in a coastal region of southeastern China from May 2018 to December 2020. Compared with satellite observations, the model output results showed richer details of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of NO2 concentrations. Due to the advantages of using multi-source data, this model framework has the potential to output products with a higher spatial resolution and can provide a reference for downscaling work on other pollutants.

As a vital part of the geo-environment and water cycle, ecosystem health and human development are dependent on water resources. Water supply and demand are influenced significantly by land use and cover change (LUCC) which shapes the surface ecosystems by altering their structure and function. Under future climate change scenarios, LUCC may greatly impact regional water balance, yet the impact is still not well understood. Therefore, examining the spatial relationship between LUCC and water yield services is crucial for optimizing land resources and informing sustainable development policies. In this study, we focused on the Hanjiang River Basin and used the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, coupled with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, to assess water yield services under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. For the first time, we considered the impact of future changes in socio-economic and water use indicators on water demand using correction factors and ARIMA projections. The relationship between water supply and demand was explored using this approach, and LUCC’s effects on this balance are also discussed. Results indicate that: (1) The patterns of LUCC are similar for the three scenarios from 2030 to 2050, with varying levels of decrease for cropland and significant growth of built-up areas, with increases of 6.77% to 19.65% (SSP119), 7.66% to 22.65% (SSP245), and 15.88% to 46.69% (SSP585), respectively, in the three scenarios relative to 2020; (2) The future supply and demand trends for the three scenarios of produced water services are similar, and the overall supply and demand risks are all on a downward trend. Water demand continues to decline, and by 2050, the water demand of the 3 scenarios will decrease by 96.275×108t, 81.210×108t, and 84.13×108t relative to 2020, respectively; while supply decreases from 2030 to 2040 and rises from 2040 to 2050; (3) Both water supply and demand distributions exhibit spatial correlation, and the distribution of hotspots is similar. The water supply and demand are well-matched, with an overall supply-demand ratio greater than 1.5; (4) LUCC can either increase or decrease water yield. Built-up land provides more water supply compared to other land types, while forest land has the lowest average water supply. Limiting land use type conversions can enhance the water supply.

To mitigate the impact of network security on the production environment in the industrial internet, this paper proposes a confidence rule-based security assessment model for the industrial internet that uses selective modeling. First, a definition of selective modeling tailored to the characteristics of the industrial internet is provided. Based on this, the assessment process of the Selectable Belief Rule Base (BRB-s) model is introduced. Then, in combination with the Selection covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy (S-CMA-ES) algorithm, a parameter optimization method for the BRB-s model is designed, which expands the selective constraints on expert knowledge. This model establishes a better unidirectional selection strategy among different subgroups, and while expanding the selection constraints on expert knowledge, it achieves better evaluation results. This effectively addresses the issue of reduced modeling accuracy caused by insufficient data and poor data quality. Finally, the experiments of different evaluation models on industrial data sets are compared, and good results are obtained, which verify the evaluation accuracy of the industrial Internet network security situation assessment model proposed in this paper and the feasibility and effectiveness of the S-CMA-ES optimization algorithm.

With the rapid advancements in information technology and industrialization, the sustainability of industrial production has garnered significant attention. Industrial control systems (ICS), which encompass various facets of industrial production, are deeply integrated with the Internet, resulting in enhanced efficiency and quality. However, this integration also introduces challenges to the continuous operation of industrial processes. This paper presents a novel security assessment model for ICS, which is based on evidence-based reasoning and a library of belief rules. The model consolidates diverse information within ICS, enhancing the accuracy of assessments while addressing challenges such as uncertainty in ICS data. The proposed model employs evidential reasoning (ER) to fuse various influencing factors and derive security assessment values. Subsequently, a belief rule base is used to construct an assessment framework, grounded in expert-defined initial parameters. To mitigate the potential unreliability of expert knowledge, the chaotic mapping adaptive whale optimization algorithm is incorporated to enhance the model’s accuracy in assessing the security posture of industrial control networks. Finally, the model’s effectiveness in security assessment was validated through experimental results. Comparative analysis with other assessment models demonstrates that the proposed model exhibits superior performance in ICS security assessment.

High-precision estimation of ground-level ozone pollution is very important for the ecological environment and public health management. Taking Hubei Province as an example, a framework of ozone concentration estimation with a spatial resolution of 0.01° × 0.01° was constructed by integrating ground observation, satellite remote sensing, and meteorological and socio-economic data. By comparing six machine learning models, it was found that the LightGBM single model performed best (R2 = 0.87), while the stacked integration model based on XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost significantly improved accuracy (R2 = 0.91; RMSE = 9.40). The results show that the ozone concentration in Hubei Province presents a spatial pattern of “high in the east and low in the west” and a seasonal feature of “thick in summer and thin in winter”, with the peak appearing in the second quarter and September. This study had some limitations, such as insufficient timeliness of human activity data, the high cost of model calculation, and regional applicability to be verified. However, through the innovative application of multi-source data fusion and an integrated learning strategy, the accurate inversion of the provincial-level high-resolution ozone concentration was achieved for the first time. The results provide methodological support for the refined prevention and control of regional ozone pollution, and the multi-model collaborative framework has a universal reference value for the estimation of air pollutants.

This paper predicts the network security posture of an ICS, focusing on the reliability of Industrial Control Systems (ICSs). Evidence reasoning (ER) and belief rule base (BRB) techniques are employed to establish an ICS network security posture prediction model, ensuring the secure operation and prediction of the ICS. This model first integrates various information from the ICS to determine its network security posture value. Subsequently, through ER iteration, information fusion occurs and serves as an input for the BRB prediction model, which necessitates initial parameter setting by relevant experts. External factors may influence the experts’ predictions; therefore, this paper proposes the Projection Equalization Optimization (P-EO) algorithm. This optimization algorithm updates the initial parameters to enhance the prediction of the ICS network security posture through the model. Finally, industrial datasets are used as experimental data to improve the credibility of the prediction experiments and validate the model’s predictive performance in the ICS. Compared with other methods, this paper’s prediction model demonstrates a superior prediction accuracy. By further comparing with other algorithms, this paper has a certain advantage when using less historical data to make predictions.

Groundwater depletion has emerged as a pressing global challenge, yet the low spatial resolution (0.25°) of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data limits its application in regional groundwater monitoring. In this study, based on 0.25° spatial resolution groundwater storage anomalies (GWSAs) data derived from GRACE satellite observations and GLDAS hydrological model outputs, supplemented with hydrological data, humanities data, and other geographic parameters, we constructed a Stacking-based ensemble machine learning model that achieved a 1 km spatial resolution of GWSAs distribution data across the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2010 to 2020. The ensemble model integrates eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) models using an Attention-Based Dynamic Weight Allocation (ADWA) approach, along with a ridge regression model. The results indicate that our ensemble model outperforms individual machine learning (ML) models, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.929, root mean square error (RMSE) of 25.232 mm, mean absolute error (MAE) of 19.125 mm, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.936, validated by 10-fold cross-validation. In situ measurements indicate that, compared with the original data, approximately 61.7% of the monitoring wells (266 out of 431) exhibit a higher correlation after downscaling, with the overall correlation coefficient increasing by about 18.7%, which suggests that the downscaled product exhibits an appreciable improvement in accuracy. The ensemble model proposed in this study, by integrating the advantages of various ML algorithms, is better able to address the complexity and uncertainty of groundwater storage variations, thus providing scientific support for the sustainable management of groundwater resources.

Drought is a common and greatly influential natural disaster, yet its reliable estimation and prediction remain a challenge. The object of this paper is to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in the Yangtze River basin. The multi-time scale drought characteristics were analyzed based on 19 models and 3 emission scenarios of CMIP6. The results show that the CMIP6 model generally has moisture deviation in the Yangtze River basin, but the accuracy has been improved after correction and ensemble. The drought conditions in the near future (2030–2059) of the Yangtze River basin will be more severe than those in the historical period (1981–2010), with the drought intensity increasing by 7.47%, 18.24%, 18.34%, and 41.48% in the order of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month scales, but it will be alleviated in the far future (2070–2099) to 5.97%, 11.86%, −4.09%, and −8.97% of the historical period, respectively. The 1-month scale drought events are few, and the spatial heterogeneity is strong under different scenarios; areas of high frequency of the 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month scale drought events shift from the upper and middle reaches, middle and lower reaches in the historical period to the southwestern part of the entire basin in the future, and the harm of drought in these regions is also higher. The Yangtze River basin will get wetter, and the variability will increase in the future. The larger the time scale is, the more intense the change will be, with the 12-month scale varying about three times as much as the 1-month scale.

To address the critical demand for high-precision forecasts in flood management, real-time error correction techniques are increasingly implemented to improve the accuracy and operational reliability of the hydrological prediction framework. However, developing a robust error correction scheme remains a significant challenge due to the compounded errors inherent in hydrological modeling frameworks. In this study, a Bayesian ensemble learning-based correction (BELC) scheme is proposed which integrates hydrological modeling with multiple machine learning methods to enhance real-time error correction for flood forecasting. The Xin’anjiang (XAJ) model is selected as the hydrological model for this study, given its proven effectiveness in flood forecasting across humid and semi-humid regions, combining structural simplicity with demonstrated predictive accuracy. The BELC scheme straightforwardly post-processes the output of the XAJ model under the Bayesian ensemble learning framework. Four machine learning methods are implemented as base learners: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, a light gradient-boosting machine (LGBM), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and random forest (RF). Optimal weights for all base learners are determined by the K-means clustering technique and Bayesian optimization in the BELC scheme. Four baseline schemes constructed by base learners and three ensemble learning-based schemes are also built for comparison purposes. The performance of the BELC scheme is systematically evaluated in the Hengshan Reservoir watershed (Fenghua City, China). Results indicate the following: (1) The BELC scheme achieves better performance in both accuracy and robustness compared to the four baseline schemes and three ensemble learning-based schemes. The average performance metrics for 1–3 h lead times are 0.95 (NSE), 0.92 (KGE), 24.25 m3/s (RMSE), and 8.71% (RPE), with a PTE consistently below 1 h in advance. (2) The K-means clustering technique proves particularly effective with the ensemble learning framework for high flow ranges, where the correction performance exhibits an increment of 62%, 100%, and 100% for 1 h, 2 h, and 3 h lead hours, respectively. Overall, the BELC scheme demonstrates the potential of a Bayesian ensemble learning framework in improving real-time error correction of flood forecasting systems.