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105 result(s) for "Zak, Michal"
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Stratospheric contraction caused by increasing greenhouse gases
Rising emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) have led to tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling over recent decades. As a thermodynamic consequence, the troposphere has expanded and the rise of the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, has been suggested as one of the most robust fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change. Conversely, at altitudes above ∼55 km (in the mesosphere and thermosphere) observational and modeling evidence indicates a downward shift of the height of pressure levels or decreasing density at fixed altitudes. The layer in between, the stratosphere, has not been studied extensively with respect to changes of its global structure. Here we show that this atmospheric layer has contracted substantially over the last decades, and that the main driver for this are increasing concentrations of GHG. Using data from coupled chemistry-climate models we show that this trend will continue and the mean climatological thickness of the stratosphere will decrease by 1.3 km following representative concentration pathway 6.0 by 2080. We also demonstrate that the stratospheric contraction is not only a response to cooling, as changes in both tropopause and stratopause pressure contribute. Moreover, its short emergence time (less than 15 years) makes it a novel and independent indicator of GHG induced climate change.
Multi-model comparison of urban heat island modelling approaches
Cities are characterized by different physical properties of surface compared to their rural counterparts, resulting in a specific regime of the meteorological phenomenon. Our study aims to evaluate the impact of typical urban surfaces on the central European urban climate in several model simulations, performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Regional Climate Model (RegCM). The specific processes occurring in the typical urban environment are described in the models by various types of urban parameterizations, greatly differing in complexity. Our results show that all models and urban parameterizations are able to reproduce the most typical urban effect, the summer evening and nocturnal urban heat island, with the average magnitude of 2–3 °C. The impact of cities on the wind is clearly dependent on the urban parameterization employed, with more simple ones unable to fully capture the wind speed reduction induced by the city. In the summer, a significant difference in the boundary-layer height (about 25 %) between models is detected. The urban-induced changes of temperature and wind speed are propagated into higher altitudes up to 2 km, with a decreasing tendency of their magnitudes. With the exception of the daytime in the summer, the urban environment improves the weather conditions a little with regard to the pollutant dispersion, which could lead to the partly decreased concentration of the primary pollutants.
Urban canopy meteorological forcing and its impact on ozone and PM2.5: role of vertical turbulent transport
It is well known that the urban canopy (UC) layer, i.e., the layer of air corresponding to the assemblage of the buildings, roads, park, trees and other objects typical to cities, is characterized by specific meteorological conditions at city scales generally differing from those over rural surroundings. We refer to the forcing that acts on the meteorological variables over urbanized areas as the urban canopy meteorological forcing (UCMF). UCMF has multiple aspects, while one of the most studied is the generation of the urban heat island (UHI) as an excess of heat due to increased absorption and trapping of radiation in street canyons. However, enhanced drag plays important role too, reducing mean wind speeds and increasing vertical eddy mixing of pollutants. As air quality is strongly tied to meteorological conditions, the UCMF leads to modifications of air chemistry and transport of pollutants. Although it has been recognized in the last decade that the enhanced vertical mixing has a dominant role in the impact of the UCMF on air quality, very little is known about the uncertainty of vertical eddy diffusion arising from different representation in numerical models and how this uncertainty propagates to the final species concentrations as well as to the changes due to the UCMF.To bridge this knowledge gap, we set up the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) coupled to the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) chemistry transport model over central Europe and designed a series of simulations to study how UC affects the vertical turbulent transport of selected pollutants through modifications of the vertical eddy diffusion coefficient (Kv) using six different methods for Kv calculation. The mean concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 in selected city canopies are analyzed. These are secondary pollutants or having secondary components, upon which turbulence acts in a much more complicated way than in the case of primary pollutants by influencing their concentrations not only directly but indirectly via precursors too. Calculations are performed over cascading domains (of 27, 9, and 3 km horizontal resolutions), which further enables to analyze the sensitivity of the numerical model to grid resolution. A number of model simulations are carried out where either urban canopies are considered or replaced by rural ones in order to isolate the UC meteorological forcing. Apart from the well-pronounced and expected impact on temperature (increases up to 2 ∘C) and wind (decreases by up to 2 ms-1), there is a strong impact on vertical eddy diffusion in all of the six Kv methods. The Kv enhancement ranges from less than 1 up to 30 m2s-1 at the surface and from 1 to 100 m2s-1 at higher levels depending on the methods. The largest impact is obtained for the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based methods.The range of impact on the vertical eddy diffusion coefficient propagates to a range of ozone (O3) increase of 0.4 to 4 ppbv in both summer and winter (5 %–10 % relative change). In the case of PM2.5, we obtained decreases of up to 1 µgm-3 in summer and up to 2 µgm-3 in winter (up to 30 %–40 % relative change). Comparing these results to the “total-impact”, i.e., to the impact of all meteorological modifications due to UCMF, we can conclude that much of UCMF is explained by the enhanced vertical eddy diffusion, which counterbalances the opposing effects of other components of this forcing (temperature, humidity and wind). The results further show that this conclusion holds regardless of the resolution chosen and in both the warm and cold parts of the year.
Climate and land-use as the main drivers of recent environmental change in a mid-altitude mountain lake, Romanian Carpathians
Recent decades have been marked by unprecendented environmental changes which threaten the integrity of freshwater systems and their ecological value. Although most of these changes can be attributed to human activities, disentagling natural and anthropogenic drivers remains a challenge. In this study, surface sediments from Lake Ighiel, a mid-altitude site in the Carpathian Mts (Romania) were investigated following high-resolution sedimentological, geochemical, environmental magnetic and diatom analyses supported by historical cartographic and documentary evidence. Our results suggest that between 1920 and 1960 the study area experienced no significant anthropogenic impact. An excellent correspondence is observed between lake proxy responses (e.g., growth of submerged macrophytes, high detrital input, shifts in diatom assemblages) and parameters tracking natural hydroclimate variability (e.g., temperature, NAO). This highlights a dominant natural hydroclimatic control on the lacustrine system. From 1960 however, the depositional regime shifted markedly from laminated to homogenous clays; since then geochemical and magnetic data document a trend of significant (and on-going) subsurface erosion across the catchment. This is paralleled by a shift in lake ecosystem conditions denoting a strong response to an intensified anthropogenic impact, mainly through forestry. An increase in detrital input and marked changes in the diatom community are observed over the last three decades, alongside accelerated sedimentation rates following enhanced grazing and deforestation in the catchment. Recent shifts in diatom assemblages may also reflect forcing from atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, a key recent drive of diatom community turnover in mountain lakes. In general, enhanced human pressure alongside intermittent hydroclimate forcing drastically altered the landscape around Lake Ighiel and thus, the sedimentation regime and the ecosystem's health. However, paleoenvironmental signals tracking natural hydroclimate variability are also clearly discernible in the proxy data. Our work illustrates the complex link between the drivers of catchment-scale impacts on one hand, and lake proxy responses on the other, highlighting the importance of an integrated historical and palaeolimnological approach to better assess lake system changes.
Challenges in Interpreting Geochemical Data: An Appraisal of Analytical Techniques Applied to a Karstic Lake Sediment Record
The paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental changes inferred from shifts in lake sediment geochemistry require reliable, efficient and cost-effective methods of analysis. The available geochemical techniques, however, suggest that different analytical approaches can influence data interpretation. X-ray fluorescence core scanner analyses (XRF-CS), field portable X-ray fluorescence (FPXRF) and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) were concurrently applied to provide a multi-method geochemical appraisal of a 6000-year-long karstic sediment record (Lake Ighiel, Romania). The comparison between techniques was based on a set of elements that are widely employed in environmental reconstructions (Ti, K, Fe, Ca). Descriptive and statistical approaches were used to assess the advantages and disadvantages of each method and assess their optimal use in karstic environments. Our data display similar downcore patterns, with strong to moderate correlations between the datasets. The discrepancies observed between method-specific downcore multi element behaviour are related to the preparation steps and sampling. To best capture the complexity of past environmental changes in karstic settings, a combination of quantitative and qualitative geochemical methods would be the most appropriate approach to reliable data acquisition and subsequent paleoenvironmental interpretation of lake sediment data.
The impact of urban land-surface on extreme air pollution over central Europe
This paper deals with the urban land-surface impact (i.e., the urban canopy meteorological forcing; UCMF) on extreme air pollution for selected central European cities for present-day climate conditions (2015–2016) using three regional climate-chemistry models: the regional climate models RegCM and WRF-Chem (its meteorological part), the chemistry transport model CAMx coupled to either RegCM and WRF and the “chemical” component of WRF-Chem. Most of the studies dealing with the urban canopy meteorological forcing on air pollution focused on change in average conditions or only on a selected winter and/or summer air pollution episode. Here we extend these studies by focusing on long-term extreme air pollution levels by looking at not only the change in average values, but also their high (and low) percentile values, and we combine the analysis with investigating selected high-pollution episodes too. As extreme air pollution is often linked to extreme values of meteorological variables (e.g., low planetary boundary layer height, low winds, high temperatures), the urbanization-induced extreme meteorological modifications will be analyzed too. The validation of model results show reasonable model performance for regional-scale temperature and precipitation. Ozone is overestimated by about 10–20 µg m−3 (50 %–100 %); on the other hand, extreme summertime ozone values are underestimated by all models. Modeled nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations are well correlated with observations, but results are marked by a systematic underestimation up to 20 µg m−3 (−50 %). PM2.5 (particles with diameter ≤2.5 µm) are systematically underestimated in most of the models by around 5 µg m−3 (50 %–70 %). Our results show that the impact on extreme values of meteorological variables can be substantially different from that of the impact on average ones: low (5th percentile) temperature in winter responds to UCMF much more than average values, while in summer, 95th percentiles increase more than averages. The impact on boundary layer height (PBLH), i.e., its increase is stronger for thicker PBLs and wind speed, is reduced much more for strong winds compared to average ones. The modeled changes in ozone (O3), NO2 and PM2.5 show the expected pattern, i.e., increase in average 8 h O3 up to 2–3 ppbv, decrease in daily average NO2 by around 2–4 ppbv and decrease in daily average PM2.5 by around −2 µg m−3. Regarding the impact on extreme (95th percentile) values of these pollutants, the impact on ozone at the high end of the distribution is rather similar to the impact on average 8 h values. A different picture is obtained however for extreme values of NO2 and PM2.5. The impact on the 95th percentile values is almost 2 times larger than the impact on the daily averages for both pollutants. The simulated impact on extreme values further well corresponds to the UCMF impact simulated for the selected high-pollution episodes. Our results bring light to the principal question: whether extreme air quality is modified by urban land surface with a different magnitude compared to the impact on average air pollution. We showed that this is indeed true for NO2 and PM2.5, while in the case of ozone, our results did not show substantial differences between the impact on mean and extreme values.
Mitigation of Distributed Denial of Service Attacks in the Cloud
Cybersecurity attacks resulting in loss of availability of cloud services can have significantly higher impact than those in the traditional stand-alone enterprise setups. Therefore, availability attacks, such as Denial of Service attacks (DoS); Distributed DoS attacks (DDoS) and Economical Denial of Sustainability (EDoS) attacks receive increasingly more attention. This paper surveys existing DDoS attacks analyzing the principles, ways of launching and their variants. Then, current mitigation systems are critically discussed. Based on the identification of the weak points, the paper proposes a new mitigation system named as DDoS-Mitigation System (DDoS-MS) that attempts to overcome the identified gap. The proposed framework is evaluated, and an enhanced version of the proposed system called Enhanced DDoS-MS is presented. In the end, the paper presents some future directions of the proposed framework.
Imprint of the 11-year solar cycle in reanalyzed and radiosonde datasets: a spatial frequency analysis approach
Oscillations in the period band of 10–12 years were globally analyzed by the pseudo-2D wavelet transform of reanalyzed (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR) and HadAT radiosonde series at several pressure levels. The results were obtained for the series of temperature, u and v wind velocities, ozone mass mixing ratios at pressure levels up to 10 hPa and temperature and height of the tropopause. The study provides a detailed description of the oscillations’ spatial distribution, together with mutual comparison of the reanalyzed datasets. The analysis is supplemented by a correlation study between the wavelet power spectra interval of the reanalyzed and radiosonde series. For the temperature series, the study shows that the cycle is detected primarily in the tropics and subtropics; the details of the spatial patterns, however, differ significantly for the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR series. The analysis of the u and v velocities provides a new characterization of the longitudinal variability of the regions sensitive to solar forcing showing, e.g., preferences for Pacific Ocean areas at 100 hPa. In the ozone mass mixing ratio fields, the oscillations are identified throughout hemispherically asymmetrical and vertically variable locations. The findings describe cycle spatial distribution in a new way and are in general agreement with other studies. The analysis of the temperature and height of the tropopause showed that the regions where the cycle is detected are primarily found within tropical to middle latitudes, with pronounced longitudinal variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Profile of coordination motor abilities in elite judokas and badminton players compared to non-athletes
To determine the level and internal structure of profiles of coordination motor abilities in elite judokas and badminton players compared to a group of non-athletes. The material for the study was the results collected from 12 competitors of the Polish national badminton team (age: 22.7 ± 4.5), 10 members of the national judo team who represented mean weight categories (age: 23.0 ± 3.3) and 25 non-athletes, who were male university students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sport (age: 23.0 ± 0.8). The scope of the study included basic somatic features and selected coordination motor abilities measured by means of computer tests. Statistically significant differences between badminton players and judokas were obtained for reaction times (visual, auditory and selective) as well as spatial orientation. In all cases, a higher level was found for badminton players. Furthermore, analysis of differences between badminton players and non-athletes revealed statistically significant differences only for the selective reaction time. A substantial differentiation of the internal structure of the models of coordination motor abilities was obtained. This pattern was particularly noticeable in the group of judokas and badminton players, where the difference between characteristics was ca. 0.76 SD. Substantially smaller differences (0.21 SD) between particular variables included in the coordination profile were found for non-athlete university students. The lower results of the elite judokas show the need for developing the coordination motor abilities during training. The largest reserves are to be found in raising the level of reaction times and spatial orientation.