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Most pandemics—eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza—originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.

Forests of the Americas and the Caribbean are undergoing rapid change as human populations increase and land use intensifies. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) criteria and simple cost‐efficiency analyses to provide the first regional perspective on patterns of relative risk integrated across multiple threats. Based on six indicators of ecosystem distribution and function, we find that 80% of the forest types and 85% of the current forest area is potentially threatened based on RLE criteria. Twelve forest types are Critically Endangered due to past or projected future deforestation, and Tropical Dry Forests and Woodland have highest threat scores. To efficiently reduce risks to forest ecosystems at national levels, scenario analyses show that countries would need to combine large forest protection measures with focused actions, tailored to their sociopolitical context, to help restore ecological functions in a selection of threatened forest types.

Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable and that this enables identification of mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. Zoonotic virus distribution patterns Zoonotic viruses, many originating in wild mammals, pose a serious threat to global public health. Peter Daszak and colleagues create a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships, which they analyse to determine patterns of virus and zoonotic virus distribution in mammals. They identify various factors that influence the number and diversity of viruses that infect a given species as well as factors that predict the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species. In doing so, they identify mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS) 1 , 2 , 3 . Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs 4 . However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries 5 , 6 , 7 . Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host–virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range—which may reflect human–wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of ‘missing viruses’ and ‘missing zoonoses’ and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people.

Although there are over 1,150 bat species worldwide, the diversity of viruses harbored by bats has only recently come into focus as a result of expanded wildlife surveillance. Such surveys are of importance in determining the potential for novel viruses to emerge in humans, and for optimal management of bats and their habitats. To enhance our knowledge of the viral diversity present in bats, we initially surveyed 415 sera from African and Central American bats. Unbiased high-throughput sequencing revealed the presence of a highly diverse group of bat-derived viruses related to hepaciviruses and pegiviruses within the family Flaviridae . Subsequent PCR screening of 1,258 bat specimens collected worldwide indicated the presence of these viruses also in North America and Asia. A total of 83 bat-derived viruses were identified, representing an infection rate of nearly 5%. Evolutionary analyses revealed that all known hepaciviruses and pegiviruses, including those previously documented in humans and other primates, fall within the phylogenetic diversity of the bat-derived viruses described here. The prevalence, unprecedented viral biodiversity, phylogenetic divergence, and worldwide distribution of the bat-derived viruses suggest that bats are a major and ancient natural reservoir for both hepaciviruses and pegiviruses and provide insights into the evolutionary history of hepatitis C virus and the human GB viruses.

The global wildlife trade network is a massive system that has been shown to threaten biodiversity, introduce non-native species and pathogens, and cause chronic animal welfare concerns. Despite its scale and impact, comprehensive characterization of the global wildlife trade is hampered by data that are limited in their temporal or taxonomic scope and detail. To help fill this gap, we present data on 15 years of the importation of wildlife and their derived products into the United States (2000–2014), originally collected by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. We curated and cleaned the data and added taxonomic information to improve data usability. These data include >2 million wildlife or wildlife product shipments, representing >60 biological classes and >3.2 billion live organisms. Further, the majority of species in the dataset are not currently reported on by CITES parties. These data will be broadly useful to both scientists and policymakers seeking to better understand the volume, sources, biological composition, and potential risks of the global wildlife trade.Measurement(s)Import • wildlife • wildlife productTechnology Type(s)digital curationSample Characteristic - Environmentwildlife trade networkSample Characteristic - LocationUnited States of AmericaMachine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11439471

The majority of emerging zoonoses originate in wildlife, and many are caused by viruses. However, there are no rigorous estimates of total viral diversity (here termed “virodiversity”) for any wildlife species, despite the utility of this to future surveillance and control of emerging zoonoses. In this case study, we repeatedly sampled a mammalian wildlife host known to harbor emerging zoonotic pathogens (the Indian Flying Fox, Pteropus giganteus ) and used PCR with degenerate viral family-level primers to discover and analyze the occurrence patterns of 55 viruses from nine viral families. We then adapted statistical techniques used to estimate biodiversity in vertebrates and plants and estimated the total viral richness of these nine families in P. giganteus to be 58 viruses. Our analyses demonstrate proof-of-concept of a strategy for estimating viral richness and provide the first statistically supported estimate of the number of undiscovered viruses in a mammalian host. We used a simple extrapolation to estimate that there are a minimum of 320,000 mammalian viruses awaiting discovery within these nine families, assuming all species harbor a similar number of viruses, with minimal turnover between host species. We estimate the cost of discovering these viruses to be ~$6.3 billion (or ~$1.4 billion for 85% of the total diversity), which if annualized over a 10-year study time frame would represent a small fraction of the cost of many pandemic zoonoses. IMPORTANCE Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in viral discovery efforts. However, most lack rigorous systematic design, which limits our ability to understand viral diversity and its ecological drivers and reduces their value to public health intervention. Here, we present a new framework for the discovery of novel viruses in wildlife and use it to make the first-ever estimate of the number of viruses that exist in a mammalian host. As pathogens continue to emerge from wildlife, this estimate allows us to put preliminary bounds around the potential size of the total zoonotic pool and facilitates a better understanding of where best to allocate resources for the subsequent discovery of global viral diversity. Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in viral discovery efforts. However, most lack rigorous systematic design, which limits our ability to understand viral diversity and its ecological drivers and reduces their value to public health intervention. Here, we present a new framework for the discovery of novel viruses in wildlife and use it to make the first-ever estimate of the number of viruses that exist in a mammalian host. As pathogens continue to emerge from wildlife, this estimate allows us to put preliminary bounds around the potential size of the total zoonotic pool and facilitates a better understanding of where best to allocate resources for the subsequent discovery of global viral diversity.

Zoonoses originating from wildlife represent a significant threat to global health, security and economic growth, and combatting their emergence is a public health priority. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their emergence remains rudimentary. Here we update a global database of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, create a novel measure of reporting effort, and fit boosted regression tree models to analyze the demographic, environmental and biological correlates of their occurrence. After accounting for reporting effort, we show that zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. We present a new global hotspot map of spatial variation in our zoonotic EID risk index, and partial dependence plots illustrating relationships between events and predictors. Our results may help to improve surveillance and long-term EID monitoring programs, and design field experiments to test underlying mechanisms of zoonotic disease emergence. The risk of epidemics originating from wild animals demands close monitoring of emerging infectious disease (EID) events and their predictors. Here, the authors update a global database of EID events, analyze their environmental and biological correlates, and present a new global hotspot map of zoonotic EID risk.

Biodiversity conservation is a complex and transdisciplinary problem that requires engagement and cooperation among scientific, societal, economic, and political institutions. However, historical approaches have often failed to bring together and address the needs of all relevant stakeholders in decision‐making processes. The Tropical Andes, a biodiversity hotspot where conservation efforts often conflict with socioeconomic issues and policies that prioritize economic development, provides an ideal model to develop and implement more effective approaches. In this study, we present a co‐design approach that mainstreams and improves the flow of biodiversity information in the Tropical Andes, while creating tailored outputs that meet the needs of economic and societal stakeholders. We employed a consultative process that brought together biodiversity information users and producers at the local, national, and regional levels through a combination of surveys and workshops. This approach identified priority needs and limitations of the flow of biodiversity information in the region, which led to the co‐design of user‐relevant biodiversity indicators. By leveraging the existing capacities of biodiversity information users and producers, we were able to co‐design multiple biodiversity indicators and prioritize two for full implementation ensuring that the data was findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable based on the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles. This approach helped address limitations that were identified in the stakeholder engagement process, including gaps in data availability and the need for more accessible biodiversity information. Additionally, capacity‐building workshops were incorporated for all producers of biodiversity information involved, which aimed to not only improve the current flow of biodiversity information in the region but also facilitate its future sustainability. Our approach can serve as a valuable blueprint for mainstreaming biodiversity information and making it more inclusive in the future, especially considering the diverse worldviews, values, and knowledge systems between science, policy, and practice. Our study presents a co‐design approach to improve biodiversity information flow in the Tropical Andes. Through stakeholder engagement and collaborative workshops, we identified priority needs and co‐designed user‐relevant indicators, addressing data gaps and enhancing inclusivity. Our approach offers a valuable framework for mainstreaming biodiversity information and fostering collaboration between science, policy, and practice in conservation efforts.

Bats are presumed reservoirs of diverse coronaviruses (CoVs) including progenitors of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. However, the evolution and diversification of these coronaviruses remains poorly understood. Here we use a Bayesian statistical framework and a large sequence data set from bat-CoVs (including 630 novel CoV sequences) in China to study their macroevolution, cross-species transmission and dispersal. We find that host-switching occurs more frequently and across more distantly related host taxa in alpha- than beta-CoVs, and is more highly constrained by phylogenetic distance for beta-CoVs. We show that inter-family and -genus switching is most common in Rhinolophidae and the genus Rhinolophus. Our analyses identify the host taxa and geographic regions that define hotspots of CoV evolutionary diversity in China that could help target bat-CoV discovery for proactive zoonotic disease surveillance. Finally, we present a phylogenetic analysis suggesting a likely origin for SARS-CoV-2 in Rhinolophus spp. bats.

One Health is a cross‐sectoral and transdisciplinary approach that emphasizes the fundamental ways in which the health of humans, domestic and wild animals, fungi, plants, microbes, and natural and built ecosystems are interdependent. One Health approaches recognize the links between human health and a range of environmental concerns including biodiversity, climate, freshwater, food, harmful chemicals, and healthy oceans. Yet the conservation community and its broad interest in biodiversity and the natural world has been notably lacking in discussions about One Health. Partly as a result, both policy and practice have been narrowly focused on one or a few links between human and other healths, such as the human and wildlife health nexus. We provide a set of principles and components that will balance existing discussions by including the natural world and biodiversity and provide a framework for more active involvement by the conservation community. Incorporating these principles and components will enable One Health practice to guide inclusive, multidisciplinary, and cross‐sectoral efforts that consider the shared costs and benefits of human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health and help readjust humanity's pursuit of a green, just, and equitable sustainability pathway.