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It is important to realize that guidelines cannot always account for individual variation among patients. They are not intended to supplant physician judgment with respect to particular patients or special clinical situations. IDSA considers adherence to these guidelines to be voluntary, with the ultimate determination regarding their application to be made by the physician in the light of each patient's individual circumstances.

The modeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology, and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making. To this end, in the present study, based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors, the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states, namely New York, California, USA, Iran, Sweden and UK. The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of daily deaths in each country/state includes information about the quality of the health system in each area, the age distribution of population, geographical and environmental factors as well as other conditions. Based on derived predicted epidemic curves, a new 3D-epidemic surface is proposed to assess the epidemic phenomenon at any time of its evolution. This research highlights the potential of the proposed model as a tool which can assist in the risk assessment of the COVID-19. Mapping its development through 3D-epidemic surface can assist in revealing its dynamic nature as well as differences and similarities among different districts.

Background. Candida species are the leading cause of invasive fungal infections in hospitalized children and are the third most common isolates recovered from patients with healthcare-associated bloodstream infection in the United States. Few data exist on risk factors for candidemia in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients. Methods. We conducted a population-based case-control study of PICU patients at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia during the period from 1997 through 2004. Case patients were identified using laboratory records, and control patients were selected from PICU rosters. Control patients were matched to case patients by incidence density sampling, adjusting for time at risk. Following conditional multivariate analysis, we performed weighted multivariate analysis to determine predicted probabilities for candidemia given certain risk factor combinations. Results. We identified 101 case patients with candidemia (incidence, 3.5 cases per 1000 PICU admissions). Factors independently associated with candidemia included presence of a central venous catheter (odds ratio [OR], 30.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7–119.5), malignancy (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.23–13.1), use of vancomycin for >3 days in the prior 2 weeks (OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 2.4–16), and receipt of agents with activity against anaerobic organisms for >3 days in the prior 2 weeks (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.5–8.4). Predicted probability of having various combinations of the aforementioned factors ranged from 10.7% to 46%. The 30-day mortality rate was 44% among case patients and 14% among control patients (OR, 4.22; 95% CI, 2.35–7.60). Conclusions. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate independent risk factors and to determine a population of children in PICUs at high risk for developing candidemia. Future efforts should focus on validation of these risk factors identified in a different PICU population and development of interventions for prevention of candidemia in critically ill children.

Background. Candida species are the fourth most common cause of bloodstream infection and are the leading cause of invasive fungal infection among hospitalized patients in the United States. However, the frequency and outcomes attributable to the infection are uncertain. This retrospective study set out to estimate the incidence of candidemia in hospitalized adults and children in the United States and to determine attributable mortality, length of hospital stay, and hospital charges related to candidemia. Methods. We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample 2000 for adult patients and the Kids' Inpatient Database 2000 for pediatric patients. We matched candidemia-exposed and candidemia-unexposed patients by the propensity scores for the probability of candidemia exposure, which were derived from patient characteristics. Attributable outcomes were calculated as the differences in estimates of outcomes between propensity score–matched patients with and without candidemia. Results. In the United States in 2000, candidemia was diagnosed in an estimated 1118 hospital admissions of pediatric patients and 8949 hospital admissions of adult patients, yielding a frequency of 43 cases per 100,000 pediatric admissions (95% confidence interval [CI], 35–52 cases per 100,000 pediatric admissions) and 30 cases per 100,000 adult admissions (95% CI, 26–34 cases per 100,000 adult admissions). In pediatric patients, candidemia was associated with a 10.0% increase in mortality (95% CI, 6.2%–13.8%), a mean 21.1-day increase in length of stay (95% CI, 14.4–27.8 days), and a mean increase in total per-patient hospital charges of $92,266 (95% CI, $65,058–$119,474). In adult patients, candidemia was associated with a 14.5% increase in mortality (95% CI, 12.1%–16.9%), a mean 10.1-day increase in length of stay (95% CI, 8.9–11.3 days), and a mean increase in hospital charges of $39,331 (95% CI, $33,604–$45,602). Conclusion. The impact of candidemia on excess mortality, increased length of stay, and the burden of cost of hospitalization underscores the need for improved means of prevention and treatment of candidemia in adults and children.

Background. Zygomycosis is an increasingly emerging life-threatening infection. There is no single comprehensive literature review that describes the epidemiology and outcome of this disease. Methods. We reviewed reports of zygomycosis in the English-language literature since 1885 and analyzed 929 eligible cases. We included in the database only those cases for which the underlying condition, the pattern of infection, the surgical and antifungal treatments, and survival were described. Results. The mean age of patients was 38.8 years; 65% were male. The prevalence and overall mortality were 36% and 44%, respectively, for diabetes; 19% and 35%, respectively, for no underlying condition; and 17% and 66%, respectively, for malignancy. The most common types of infection were sinus (39%), pulmonary (24%), and cutaneous (19%). Dissemination developed in 23% of cases. Mortality varied with the site of infection: 96% of patients with disseminated disease died, 85% with gastrointestinal infection died, and 76% with pulmonary infection died. The majority of patients with malignancy (92 [60%] of 154) had pulmonary disease, whereas the majority of patients with diabetes (222 [66%] of 337) had sinus disease. Rhinocerebral disease was seen more frequently in patients with diabetes (145 [33%] of 337), compared with patients with malignancy (6 [4%] of 154). Hematogenous dissemination to skin was rare; however, 78 (44%) of 176 cutaneous infections were complicated by deep extension or dissemination. Survival was 3% (8 of 241 patients) for cases that were not treated, 61% (324 of 532) for cases treated with amphotericin B deoxycholate, 57% (51 of 90) for cases treated with surgery alone, and 70% (328 of 470) for cases treated with antifungal therapy and surgery. By multivariate analysis, infection due to Cunninghamella species and disseminated disease were independently associated with increased rates of death (odds ratios, 2.78 and 11.2, respectively). Conclusions. Outcome from zygomycosis varies as a function of the underlying condition, site of infection, and use of antifungal therapy.

Background. The incidence of and outcomes associated with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection in hospitalized children have been incompletely characterized. Methods. We performed a retrospective, observational study using the Pediatric Health Information System, a database of clinical and financial data from >40 freestanding US children's hospitals. Using discharge coding data, we characterized S. aureus infections in children <18 years of age who were hospitalized during the period from 1 January 2002 through 31 December 2007. Results. During this 6-year study period, we identified 57,794 children with S. aureus infection, 29,309 (51%) of whom had MRSA infection. The median age of patients with S. aureus infection was 3.1 years (interquartile range, 0.8–11.2 years), and less than one-third of these patients had complex, chronic medical conditions. Over time, there was a significant increase in cases of MRSA infection (from 6.7 cases per 1000 admissions in 2002 to 21.1 cases per 1000 admissions in 2007; P=.02, by test for trend), whereas the incidence of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus infection remained stable (14.1 cases per 1000 patient-days in 2002 to 14.7 cases per 1000 patient-days in 2007; P=.85, by test for trend). Of the 38,123 patients whose type of infection was identified, 23,280 (61%) had skin and soft-tissue infections. The incidences of skin and soft-tissue infection, pneumonia, osteomyelitis, and bacteremia that were caused by S. aureus increased over time, and these increases were due exclusively to MRSA. The mortality rate for hospitalized children with MRSA infection was 1% (360 of 29,309 children). Conclusions. There has been a recent increase in the number of hospitalized children with MRSA infection. This increase is largely driven by, but is not limited to, an increase in skin and soft-tissue infections. The mortality rate for hospitalized children with MRSA infection is low.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in approximately 5 million deaths around the world with unprecedented consequences in people’s daily routines and in the global economy. Despite vast increases in time and money spent on COVID-19-related research, there is still limited information about the factors at the country level that affected COVID-19 transmission and fatality in EU. The paper focuses on the identification of these risk factors using a machine learning (ML) predictive pipeline and an associated explainability analysis. To achieve this, a hybrid dataset was created employing publicly available sources comprising heterogeneous parameters from the majority of EU countries, e.g., mobility measures, policy responses, vaccinations, and demographics/generic country-level parameters. Data pre-processing and data exploration techniques were initially applied to normalize the available data and decrease the feature dimensionality of the data problem considered. Then, a linear ε-Support Vector Machine (ε-SVM) model was employed to implement the regression task of predicting the number of deaths for each one of the three first pandemic waves (with mean square error of 0.027 for wave 1 and less than 0.02 for waves 2 and 3). Post hoc explainability analysis was finally applied to uncover the rationale behind the decision-making mechanisms of the ML pipeline and thus enhance our understanding with respect to the contribution of the selected country-level parameters to the prediction of COVID-19 deaths in EU.

We performed a retrospective cohort study, using the 2002 Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a national database of hospital inpatient stays, to describe the incidence and epidemiology of endemic mycoses requiring hospitalization. An estimated 332 pediatric and 6003 adult patients with endemic mycoses required hospitalization (4.6 and 28.7 cases per 1 million children and adults, respectively). Crude mortality rates were 5% and 7% among children and adults, respectively.

Background. The incidence of candidiasis has increased in neonatal intensive care units, and invasive candidiasis is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. However, few data exist on outcomes directly attributable to neonatal candidiasis. Methods. We estimated the incidence of systemic candidiasis in hospitalized neonates within the United States and determined the attributable mortality, length of hospital stay, and associated costs. We used the 2003 Kid's Inpatient Database from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. Systemic candidiasis and comorbidities were defined by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Neonates with uncomplicated births and neonates who died within the first 3 days of life were excluded. We used propensity score methods to balance covariates between the neonates with and neonates without candidiasis. Attributable outcomes were calculated between propensity score—matched neonates with and neonates without candidiasis. Because of the known confounding effect of birth weight, we performed separate propensity score analyses for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) neonates (i.e., neonates weighing <1000 g). Results. The overall incidence of invasive candidiasis in neonates is 15 cases per 10,000 neonatal admissions (95% confidence interval [CI], 13–16 cases per 10,000 neonatal admissions). ELBW neonates with invasive candidiasis were 2 times more likely to die (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4–3.5) than propensity-matched ELBW neonates without candidiasis. The propensity score—adjusted mortality rate attributable to candidiasis among ELBW neonates was 11.9%. Candidiasis in ELBW infants was not associated with an increase in length of hospital stay but was associated with a mean increase in total charges of $39,045 (95% CI, $1374–$76,715). Among infants with a birth weight ⩾1000 g, those who had candidiasis did not experience a significant increase in mortality, compared with infants without candidiasis. However, the propensity score—adjusted length of stay and charges attributable to candidiasis among neonates with a birth weight ⩾1000 g were 16 days (95% CI, 8–24 days) and $122,302 (95% CI, $80,457–$164,148), respectively. Conclusions. Invasive candidiasis is associated with a significantly increased risk of death and excess hospital charges in ELBW neonates and with excess hospital stay and excess hospital charges in neonates with a birth weight ⩾1000 g.

Antimicrobial development for children remains challenging due to multiple barriers to conducting randomised clinical trials (CTs). There is currently considerable heterogeneity in the design and conduct of paediatric antibiotic studies, hampering comparison and meta-analytic approaches. The board of the European networks for paediatric research at the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in collaboration with the Paediatric European Network for Treatments of AIDS—Infectious Diseases network (www.penta-id.org), recently developed a Working Group on paediatric antibiotic CT design, involving academic, regulatory and industry representatives. The evidence base for any specific criteria for the design and conduct of efficacy and safety antibiotic trials for children is very limited and will evolve over time as further studies are conducted. The suggestions being put forward here are based on the adult EMA guidance, adapted for neonates and children. In particular, this document provides suggested guidance on the general principles of harmonisation between regulatory and strategic trials, including (1) standardised key inclusion/exclusion criteria and widely applicable outcome measures for specific clinical infectious syndromes (CIS) to be used in CTs on efficacy of antibiotic in children; (2) key components of safety that should be reported in paediatric antibiotic CTs; (3) standardised sample sizes for safety studies. Summarising views from a range of key stakeholders, specific criteria for the design and conduct of efficacy and safety antibiotic trials in specific CIS for children have been suggested. The recommended criteria are intended to be applicable to both regulatory and clinical investigator-led strategic trials and could be the basis for harmonisation in the design and conduct of CTs on antibiotics in children. The next step is further discussion internationally with investigators, paediatric CTs networks and regulators.