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The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1 – 3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system 1 . Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions. Analyses of drivers of water stress are used to predict likely trajectories of the Amazon forest system and suggests potential actions that could prevent system collapse.

Tropical forests are being deforested worldwide, and the remaining fragments are suffering from biomass and biodiversity erosion. Quantifying this erosion is challenging because ground data on tropical biodiversity and biomass are often sparse. Here, we use an unprecedented dataset of 1819 field surveys covering the entire Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We show that 83−85% of the surveys presented losses in forest biomass and tree species richness, functional traits, and conservation value. On average, forest fragments have 25−32% less biomass, 23−31% fewer species, and 33, 36, and 42% fewer individuals of late-successional, large-seeded, and endemic species, respectively. Biodiversity and biomass erosion are lower inside strictly protected conservation units, particularly in large ones. We estimate that biomass erosion across the Atlantic Forest remnants is equivalent to the loss of 55−70 thousand km 2 of forests or US$2.3−2.6 billion in carbon credits. These figures have direct implications on mechanisms of climate change mitigation. Quantifying forest degradation and biodiversity losses is necessary to inform conservation and restoration policies. Here the authors analyze a large dataset for the Atlantic Forest in South America to quantify losses in forest biomass and tree species richness, functional traits, and conservation value.

Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we  (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5–56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3–41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8–84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7–64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.

Wood density is a crucial variable in carbon accounting programs of both secondary and old-growth tropical forests. It also is the best single descriptor of wood: it correlates with numerous morphological, mechanical, physiological, and ecological properties. To explore the extent to which wood density could be estimated for rare or poorly censused taxa, and possible sources of variation in this trait, we analyzed regional, taxonomic, and phylogenetic variation in wood density among 2456 tree species from Central and South America. Wood density varied over more than one order of magnitude across species, with an overall mean of 0.645 g/cm³. Our geographical analysis showed significant decreases in wood density with increasing altitude and significant differences among low-altitude geographical regions: wet forests of Central America and western Amazonia have significantly lower mean wood density than dry forests of Central and South America, eastern and central Amazonian forests, and the Atlantic forests of Brazil; and eastern Amazonian forests have lower wood densities than the dry forests and the Atlantic forest. A nested analysis of variance showed that 74% of the species-level wood density variation was explained at the genus level, 34% at the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group (APG) family level, and 19% at the APG order level. This indicates that genus-level means give reliable approximations of values of species, except in a few hypervariable genera. We also studied which evolutionary shifts in wood density occurred in the phylogeny of seed plants using a composite phylogenetic tree. Major changes were observed at deep nodes (Eurosid 1), and also in more recent divergences (for instance in the Rhamnoids, Simaroubaceae, and Anacardiaceae). Our unprecedented wood density data set yields consistent guidelines for estimating wood densities when species-level information is lacking and should significantly reduce error in Central and South American carbon accounting programs.

Tropical America (the Neotropics) harbours more plant species than any other region on Earth. The contribution of rare species to this diversity has been recently recognised, but their spatial distribution remains poorly understood. Here, we use all collection records of angiosperms from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to delineate Neotropical bioregions, and to identify putatively rare species within the Neotropics and the Amazonian rainforest. We analyse the spatial distribution of these species and validate the results on a largely independent dataset based on vegetation plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network. We find that rare species are homogeneously distributed through most parts of the lowland Neotropics and Amazonia, but more concentrated in highlands. The second collection of any rare species is most often found in the close vicinity of the first, but in 20% of cases they are more than 580 km apart. We also find cross-taxonomic patterns of disjunct distributions within the Andes, the Atlantic forest in eastern Brazil, and between Amazonia and the Atlantic forest, but no clear disjunction patterns within lowland areas. These results suggest that a considerable proportion of rare plant species have surprisingly large distribution ranges, and that collections of rare species across most of the lowland Neotropics, and in particular in Amazonia, show no clear directionality. The second record of many rare species may be found virtually anywhere, urging the need for intensifying and broadening biological sampling.

New roads, agricultural projects, logging, and mining are claiming an ever greater area of once-pristine Amazonian forest. The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MA) forecasts the extinction of a large fraction of Amazonian tree species based on projected loss of forest cover over the next several decades. How accurate are these estimates of extinction rates? We use neutral theory to estimate the number, relative abundance, and range size of tree species in the Amazon metacommunity and estimate likely tree-species extinctions under published optimistic and nonoptimistic Amazon scenarios. We estimate that the Brazilian portion of the Amazon Basin has (or had) 11,210 tree species that reach sizes >10 cm DBH (stem diameter at breast height). Of these, 3,248 species have population sizes >1 million individuals, and, ignoring possible climate-change effects, almost all of these common species persist under both optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios. At the rare end of the abundance spectrum, however, neutral theory predicts the existence of [almost equal to]5,308 species with <10,000 individuals each that are expected to suffer nearly a 50% extinction rate under the nonoptimistic deforestation scenario and an [almost equal to]37% loss rate even under the optimistic scenario. Most of these species have small range sizes and are highly vulnerable to local habitat loss. In ensembles of 100 stochastic simulations, we found mean total extinction rates of 20% and 33% of tree species in the Brazilian Amazon under the optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios, respectively.

Environmental and dispersal filters are key determinants of species distributions of Amazonian tree communities. However, a comprehensive analysis of the role of environmental and dispersal filters is needed to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes that drive phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover of Amazonian tree communities. We compare measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity in 41 one-hectare plots to test the relative importance of climate, soils, geology, geomorphology, pure spatial variables and the spatial variation of environmental drivers of phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover in Ecuadorian Amazon tree communities. We found low phylogenetic and high taxonomic turnover with respect to environmental and dispersal filters. In addition, our results suggest that climate is a significantly better predictor of phylogenetic turnover and taxonomic turnover than geomorphology and soils at all spatial scales. The influence of climate as a predictor of phylogenetic turnover was stronger at broader spatial scales (50 km²) whereas geomorphology and soils appear to be better predictors of taxonomic turnover at mid (5 km²) and fine spatial scales (0.5 km²) but a weak predictor of phylogenetic turnover at broad spatial scales. We also found that the combined effect of geomorphology and soils was significantly higher for taxonomic turnover at all spatial scales but not for phylogenetic turnover at large spatial scales. Geographic distances as proxy of dispersal limitation was a better predictor of phylogenetic turnover at distances of 50 < 500 km. Our findings suggest that climatic variation at regional scales can better predict phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover than geomorphology and soils.

We compiled a data set for all tree species collected to date in lowland Amazonian Ecuador in order to determine the number of tree species in the region. This data set has been extensively verified by taxonomists and is the most comprehensive attempt to evaluate the tree diversity in one of the richest species regions of the Amazon. We used four main sources of data: mounted specimens deposited in Ecuadorian herbaria only, specimen records of a large‐scale 1‐hectare‐plot network (60 plots in total), data from the Missouri Botanical Garden Tropicos® database (MO), and literature sources. The list of 2,296 tree species names we provide in this data set is based on 47,486 herbarium records deposited in the following herbaria: Alfredo Paredes Herbarium (QAP), Catholic University Herbarium (QCA), Herbario Nacional del Ecuador (QCNE), Missouri Botanical Garden (MO), and records from an extensive sampling of 29,768 individuals with diameter at breast height (dbh) ≥10 cm recorded in our plot network. We also provide data for the relative abundance of species, geographic coordinates of specimens deposited in major herbaria around the world, whether the species is native or endemic, current hypothesis of geographic distribution, representative collections, and IUCN threat category for every species recorded to date in Amazonian Ecuador. These data are described in Metadata S1 and can be used for macroecological, evolutionary, or taxonomic studies. There are no copyright restrictions; data are freely available for noncommercial scientific use (CC BY 3.0). Please see Metadata S1 (Class III, Section B.1: Proprietary restrictions) for additional information on usage.

Successional dynamics of plants and animals during tropical forest regeneration have been thoroughly studied, while fungal compositional dynamics during tropical forest succession remain unknown, despite the crucial roles of fungi in ecological processes. We combined tree data and soil fungal DNA metabarcoding data to compare richness and community composition along secondary forest succession in Costa Rica and assessed the potential roles of abiotic factors influencing them. We found a strong coupling of tree and soil fungal community structure in wet tropical primary and regenerating secondary forests. Forest age, edaphic variables, and regional differences in climatic conditions all had significant effects on tree and fungal richness and community composition in all functional groups. Furthermore, we observed larger site-to-site compositional differences and greater influence of edaphic and climatic factors in secondary than in primary forests. The results suggest greater environmental heterogeneity and greater stochasticity in community assembly in the early stages of secondary forest succession and a certain convergence on a set of taxa with a competitive advantage in the more persisting environmental conditions in old-growth forests. Our work provides unprecedented insights into the successional dynamics of fungal communities during secondary tropical forest succession.

McMichael et al . state that we overlooked the effects of post-Columbian human activities in shaping current floristic patterns in Amazonian forests. We formally show that post-Columbian human influences on Amazonian forests are indeed important, but they have played a smaller role when compared to the persistent effects of pre-Columbian human activities on current forest composition.