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Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost–benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

Fibrosis is a hallmark of adverse cardiac remodeling, which promotes heart failure, but it is also an essential repair mechanism to prevent cardiac rupture, signifying the importance of appropriate regulation of this process. In the remodeling heart, cardiac fibroblasts (CFs) differentiate into myofibroblasts (MyoFB), which are the key mediators of the fibrotic response. Additionally, cardiomyocytes are involved by providing pro-fibrotic cues. Nuclear receptor Nur77 is known to reduce cardiac hypertrophy and associated fibrosis; however, the exact function of Nur77 in the fibrotic response is yet unknown. Here, we show that Nur77-deficient mice exhibit severe myocardial wall thinning, rupture and reduced collagen fiber density after myocardial infarction and chronic isoproterenol (ISO) infusion. Upon Nur77 knockdown in cultured rat CFs, expression of MyoFB markers and extracellular matrix proteins is reduced after stimulation with ISO or transforming growth factor–β (TGF-β). Accordingly, Nur77-depleted CFs produce less collagen and exhibit diminished proliferation and wound closure capacity. Interestingly, Nur77 knockdown in neonatal rat cardiomyocytes results in increased paracrine induction of MyoFB differentiation, which was blocked by TGF-β receptor antagonism. Taken together, Nur77-mediated regulation involves CF-intrinsic promotion of CF-to-MyoFB transition and inhibition of cardiomyocyte-driven paracrine TGF-β-mediated MyoFB differentiation. As such, Nur77 provides distinct, cell-specific regulation of cardiac fibrosis.