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The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.

A reconstruction of temperatures along the Wilkes Land coast of Antarctica during the early Eocene epoch shows that the climate supported the growth of near-tropical forests and that winters were very mild and essentially frost-free. A subtropical spell in East Antarctica During the early Eocene epoch, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were perhaps three times those of the modern era. There was a generally flattened latitudinal temperature gradient, and the poles were much warmer than they are at present. The climate of Antarctica during this time has remained unclear. This paper presents a record of terrestrial climate and vegetation dynamics on Antarctica that spans the peak greenhouse phase of extreme warmth during the early Eocene, as well as the subsequent cooling. The data show that East Antarctica supported near-tropical ecosystems, with winter temperatures reaching more than 10 °C. The warmest global climates of the past 65 million years occurred during the early Eocene epoch (about 55 to 48 million years ago), when the Equator-to-pole temperature gradients were much smaller than today 1 , 2 and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were in excess of one thousand parts per million by volume 3 , 4 . Recently the early Eocene has received considerable interest because it may provide insight into the response of Earth’s climate and biosphere to the high atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that are expected in the near future 5 as a consequence of unabated anthropogenic carbon emissions 4 , 6 . Climatic conditions of the early Eocene ‘greenhouse world’, however, are poorly constrained in critical regions, particularly Antarctica. Here we present a well-dated record of early Eocene climate on Antarctica from an ocean sediment core recovered off the Wilkes Land coast of East Antarctica. The information from biotic climate proxies (pollen and spores) and independent organic geochemical climate proxies (indices based on branched tetraether lipids) yields quantitative, seasonal temperature reconstructions for the early Eocene greenhouse world on Antarctica. We show that the climate in lowland settings along the Wilkes Land coast (at a palaeolatitude of about 70° south) supported the growth of highly diverse, near-tropical forests characterized by mesothermal to megathermal floral elements including palms and Bombacoideae. Notably, winters were extremely mild (warmer than 10 °C) and essentially frost-free despite polar darkness, which provides a critical new constraint for the validation of climate models and for understanding the response of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems to increased carbon dioxide forcing.

Understanding ice sheet behaviour in the geological past is essential for evaluating the role of the cryosphere in the climate system and for projecting rates and magnitudes of sea level rise in future warming scenarios 1 – 4 . Although both geological data 5 – 7 and ice sheet models 3 , 8 indicate that marine-based sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet were unstable during Pliocene warm intervals, the ice sheet dynamics during late Pleistocene interglacial intervals are highly uncertain 3 , 9 , 10 . Here we provide evidence from marine sedimentological and geochemical records for ice margin retreat or thinning in the vicinity of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin of East Antarctica during warm late Pleistocene interglacial intervals. The most extreme changes in sediment provenance, recording changes in the locus of glacial erosion, occurred during marine isotope stages 5, 9, and 11, when Antarctic air temperatures 11 were at least two degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial temperatures for 2,500 years or more. Hence, our study indicates a close link between extended Antarctic warmth and ice loss from the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, providing ice-proximal data to support a contribution to sea level from a reduced East Antarctic Ice Sheet during warm interglacial intervals. While the behaviour of other regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet remains to be assessed, it appears that modest future warming may be sufficient to cause ice loss from the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Studies of an Antarctic marine sediment core suggest that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreated in the vicinity of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during extended warm periods of the late Pleistocene, when temperatures were similar to those predicted to occur within this century.

Large amplitude variations in atmospheric CO 2 were associated with glacial terminations of the Late Pleistocene. Here we provide multiple lines of evidence suggesting that the ∼20 p.p.m.v. overshoot in CO 2 at the end of Termination 2 (T2) ∼129 ka was associated with an abrupt (≤400 year) deepening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In contrast to Termination 1 (T1), which was interrupted by the Bølling-Allerød (B-A), AMOC recovery did not occur until the very end of T2, and was characterized by pronounced formation of deep waters in the NW Atlantic. Considering the variable influences of ocean circulation change on atmospheric CO 2 , we suggest that the net change in CO 2 across the last 2 terminations was approximately equal if the transient effects of deglacial oscillations in ocean circulation are taken into account. Differences in the sequence and timing of ocean circulation changes across glacial terminations could affect the magnitude of deglacial atmospheric CO 2 rise. Here, the authors argue that late ocean circulation recovery during the penultimate deglaciation (T2) led to a larger rise in CO 2 compared with T1.

The Wilkes and Aurora basins are large, low-lying sub-glacial basins that may cause areas of weakness in the overlying East Antarctic ice sheet. Previous work based on ice-rafted debris (IRD) provenance analyses found evidence for massive iceberg discharges from these areas during the late Miocene and Pliocene. Here we characterize the sediments shed from the inferred areas of weakness along this margin (94°E to 165°E) by measuring 40Ar/39Ar ages of 292 individual detrital hornblende grains from eight marine sediment core locations off East Antarctica and Nd isotopic compositions of the bulk fine fraction from the same sediments. We further expand the toolbox for Antarctic IRD provenance analyses by exploring the application of 40Ar/39Ar ages of detrital biotites; biotite as an IRD tracer eliminates lithological biases imposed by only analyzing hornblendes and allows for characterization of samples with low IRD concentrations. Our data quadruples the number of detrital 40Ar/39Ar ages from this margin of East Antarctica and leads to the following conclusions: (1) Four main sectors between the Ross Sea and Prydz Bay, separated by ice drainage divides, are distinguishable based upon the combination of 40Ar/39Ar ages of detrital hornblende and biotite grains and the Nd of the bulk fine fraction; (2) 40Ar/39Ar biotite ages can be used as a robust provenance tracer for this part of East Antarctica; and (3) sediments shed from the coastal areas of the Aurora and Wilkes sub-glacial basins can be clearly distinguished from one another based upon their isotopic fingerprints.

The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition of seawater has been used extensively to reconstruct ocean circulation on a variety of time scales. However, dissolved neodymium concentrations and isotopes do not always behave conservatively, and quantitative deconvolution of this non-conservative component can be used to detect trace metal inputs and isotopic exchange at ocean–sediment interfaces. In order to facilitate such comparisons for historical datasets, we here provide an extended global database for Nd isotopes and concentrations in the context of hydrography and nutrients. Since 2010, combined datasets for a large range of trace elements and isotopes are collected on international GEOTRACES section cruises, alongside classical nutrient and hydrography measurements. Here, we take a first step towards exploiting these datasets by comparing high-resolution Nd sections for the western and eastern North Atlantic in the context of hydrography, nutrients and aluminium (Al) concentrations. Evaluating those data in tracer–tracer space reveals that North Atlantic seawater Nd isotopes and concentrations generally follow the patterns of advection, as do Al concentrations. Deviations from water mass mixing are observed locally, associated with the addition or removal of trace metals in benthic nepheloid layers, exchange with ocean margins (i.e. boundary exchange) and/or exchange with particulate phases (i.e. reversible scavenging). We emphasize that the complexity of some of the new datasets cautions against a quantitative interpretation of individual palaeo Nd isotope records, and indicates the importance of spatial reconstructions for a more balanced approach to deciphering past ocean changes. This article is part of the themed issue 'Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry'.

Observations and model experiments highlight the importance of ocean heat in forcing ice sheet retreat during the present and geological past, but past ocean temperature data are virtually missing in ice sheet proximal locations. Here we document paleoceanographic conditions and the (in)stability of the Wilkes Land subglacial basin (East Antarctica) during the mid-Miocene (~17–13.4 million years ago) by studying sediment cores from offshore Adélie Coast. Inland retreat of the ice sheet, temperate vegetation, and warm oligotrophic waters characterise the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; 17–14.8 Ma). After the MCO, expansion of a marine-based ice sheet occurs, but remains sensitive to melting upon episodic warm water incursions. Our results suggest that the mid-Miocene latitudinal temperature gradient across the Southern Ocean never resembled that of the present day. We demonstrate that a strong coupling of oceanic climate and Antarctic continental conditions existed and that the East Antarctic subglacial basins were highly sensitive to ocean warming. Ocean heat is important in forcing ice sheet retreat, yet past ocean temperature data from proximal ice sheet locations are sparse. Here, the authors present temperature reconstructions from the Wilkes Land subglacial basin during the mid-Miocene, and show that warm waters sustained ice sheet retreat 17–14.8 Ma.

The Last Interglacial (LIG: 130,000–115,000 years ago) was a period of warmer global mean temperatures and higher and more variable sea levels than the Holocene (11,700–0 years ago). Therefore, a better understanding of Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics during this interval would provide valuable insights for projecting sea-level change in future warming scenarios. Here we present a high-resolution record constraining ice-sheet changes in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) of East Antarctica during the LIG, based on analysis of sediment provenance and an ice melt proxy in a marine sediment core retrieved from the Wilkes Land margin. Our sedimentary records, together with existing ice-core records, reveal dynamic fluctuations of the ice sheet in the WSB, with thinning, melting, and potentially retreat leading to ice loss during both early and late stages of the LIG. We suggest that such changes along the East Antarctic Ice Sheet margin may have contributed to fluctuating global sea levels during the LIG. Sedimentary records from offshore of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet support two episodes of ice loss during the last interglacial period (130-115 ka), leading to elevated global sea levels under global mean temperatures similar to the present day.

The onset of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation is thought to have coincided with Antarctic ice-sheet growth about 34 million years ago (Ma). However, this timing is debated, in part due to questions over the geochemical signature of the ancient Northern Component Water (NCW) formed in the deep North Atlantic. Here we present detailed geochemical records from North Atlantic sediment cores located close to sites of deep-water formation. We find that prior to 36 Ma, the northwestern Atlantic was stratified, with nutrient-rich, low-salinity bottom waters. This restricted basin transitioned into a conduit for NCW that began flowing southwards approximately one million years before the initial Antarctic glaciation. The probable trigger was tectonic adjustments in subarctic seas that enabled an increased exchange across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. The increasing surface salinity and density strengthened the production of NCW. The late Eocene deep-water mass differed in its carbon isotopic signature from modern values as a result of the leakage of fossil carbon from the Arctic Ocean. Export of this nutrient-laden water provided a transient pulse of CO2 to the Earth system, which perhaps caused short-term warming, whereas the long-term effect of enhanced NCW formation was a greater northward heat transport that cooled Antarctica.

The interoceanic exchange of water masses is modulated by flow through key oceanic choke points in the Drake Passage, the Indonesian Seas, south of Africa, and south of Tasmania. Here, we use the neodymium isotope signature (ε Nd ) of cold-water coral skeletons from intermediate depths (1460‒1689 m) to trace circulation changes south of Tasmania during the last glacial period. The key feature of our dataset is a long-term trend towards radiogenic ε Nd values of ~−4.6 during the Last Glacial Maximum and Heinrich Stadial 1, which are clearly distinct from contemporaneous Southern Ocean ε Nd of ~−7. When combined with previously published radiocarbon data from the same corals, our results indicate that a unique radiogenic and young water mass was present during this time. This scenario can be explained by a more vigorous Pacific overturning circulation that supported a deeper outflow of Pacific waters, including North Pacific Intermediate Water, through the Tasman Sea. Using cold-water corals, this work identifies a deep outflow of Pacific waters via the Tasman Sea during the last ice age, thus highlighting the role of this area for the interoceanic exchange of water masses on climatic time scales.