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91 result(s) for "van de Giesen, Nick"
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Systematic high-resolution assessment of global hydropower potential
Population growth, increasing energy demand and the depletion of fossil fuel reserves necessitate a search for sustainable alternatives for electricity generation. Hydropower could replace a large part of the contribution of gas and oil to the present energy mix. However, previous high-resolution estimates of hydropower potential have been local, and have yet to be applied on a global scale. This study is the first to formally present a detailed evaluation of the hydropower potential of each location, based on slope and discharge of each river in the world. The gross theoretical hydropower potential is approximately 52 PWh/year divided over 11.8 million locations. This 52 PWh/year is equal to 33% of the annually required energy, while the present energy production by hydropower plants is just 3% of the annually required energy. The results of this study: all potentially interesting locations for hydroelectric power plants, are available online.
Deduction of reservoir operating rules for application in global hydrological models
A big challenge in constructing global hydrological models is the inclusion of anthropogenic impacts on the water cycle, such as caused by dams. Dam operators make decisions based on experience and often uncertain information. In this study information generally available to dam operators, like inflow into the reservoir and storage levels, was used to derive fuzzy rules describing the way a reservoir is operated. Using an artificial neural network capable of mimicking fuzzy logic, called the ANFIS adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, fuzzy rules linking inflow and storage with reservoir release were determined for 11 reservoirs in central Asia, the US and Vietnam. By varying the input variables of the neural network, different configurations of fuzzy rules were created and tested. It was found that the release from relatively large reservoirs was significantly dependent on information concerning recent storage levels, while release from smaller reservoirs was more dependent on reservoir inflows. Subsequently, the derived rules were used to simulate reservoir release with an average Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.81.
Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water
Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (∼10–100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface‐subsurface interactions due to fine‐scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land‐atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 109 unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a “grand challenge” to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort. Key Points Need for hyperresolution global models Six challenges to hydrology that would benefit from hyper‐resolution models The need for the community to come together in addressing the grand challenge
Calibrating Single-Ended Fiber-Optic Raman Spectra Distributed Temperature Sensing Data
Hydrologic research is a very demanding application of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) in terms of precision, accuracy and calibration. The physics behind the most frequently used DTS instruments are considered as they apply to four calibration methods for single-ended DTS installations. The new methods presented are more accurate than the instrument-calibrated data, achieving accuracies on the order of tenths of a degree root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias. Effects of localized non-uniformities that violate the assumptions of single-ended calibration data are explored and quantified. Experimental design considerations such as selection of integration times or selection of the length of the reference sections are discussed, and the impacts of these considerations on calibrated temperatures are explored in two case studies.
High Quality Zenith Tropospheric Delay Estimation Using a Low-Cost Dual-Frequency Receiver and Relative Antenna Calibration
The recent release of consumer-grade dual-frequency receivers sparked scientific interest into use of these cost-efficient devices for high precision positioning and tropospheric delay estimations. Previous analyses with low-cost single-frequency receivers showed promising results for the estimation of Zenith Tropospheric Delays (ZTDs). However, their application is limited by the need to account for the ionospheric delay. In this paper we investigate the potential of a low-cost dual-frequency receiver (U-blox ZED-F9P) in combination with a range of different quality antennas. We show that the receiver itself is very well capable of achieving high-quality ZTD estimations. The limiting factor is the quality of the receiving antenna. To improve the applicability of mass-market antennas, a relative antenna calibration is performed, and new absolute Antenna Exchange Format (ANTEX) entries are created using a geodetic antenna as base. The performance of ZTD estimation with the tested antennas is evaluated, with and without antenna Phase Center Variation (PCV) corrections, using Precise Point Positioning (PPP). Without applying PCVs for the low-cost antennas, the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of the estimated ZTDs are between 15 mm and 24 mm. Using the newly generated PCVs, the RMSE is reduced significantly to about 4 mm, a level that is excellent for meteorological applications. The standard U-blox ANN-MB-00 patch antenna, with a circular ground plane, after correcting the phase pattern yields comparable results (0.47 mm bias and 4.02 mm RMSE) to those from geodetic quality antennas, providing an all-round low-cost solution. The relative antenna calibration method presented in this paper opens the way for wide-spread application of low-cost receiver and antennas.
Large-sample assessment of varying spatial resolution on the streamflow estimates of the wflow_sbm hydrological model
Distributed hydrological modelling moves into the realm of hyper-resolution modelling. This results in a plethora of scaling-related challenges that remain unsolved. To the user, in light of model result interpretation, finer-resolution output might imply an increase in understanding of the complex interplay of heterogeneity within the hydrological system. Here we investigate spatial scaling in the form of varying spatial resolution by evaluating the streamflow estimates of the distributed wflow_sbm hydrological model based on 454 basins from the large-sample CAMELS data set. Model instances are derived at three spatial resolutions, namely 3 km, 1 km, and 200 m. The results show that a finer spatial resolution does not necessarily lead to better streamflow estimates at the basin outlet. Statistical testing of the objective function distributions (Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) score) of the three model instances resulted in only a statistical difference between the 3 km and 200 m streamflow estimates. However, an assessment of sampling uncertainty shows high uncertainties surrounding the KGE score throughout the domain. This makes the conclusion based on the statistical testing inconclusive. The results do indicate strong locality in the differences between model instances expressed by differences in KGE scores of on average 0.22 with values larger than 0.5. The results of this study open up research paths that can investigate the changes in flux and state partitioning due to spatial scaling. This will help to further understand the challenges that need to be resolved for hyper-resolution hydrological modelling.
Enhanced potential ecological risk induced by a large scale water diversion project
River regulation by the construction of reservoirs represents one of the greatest challenges to the natural flow regime and ecological health of riverine systems globally. The Danjiangkou (DJK) Reservoir is the largest reservoir on the Hangjiang River and commenced operations in 1967. The reservoir was upgraded in 2012 to provide water resource for the South–North water transfer project through central China. However, the effect of the reservoir operations on the downstream hydrological regime and ecological health of the Hanjiang River following the upgrade (increase in dam height and reservoir capacity) has not been examined thus far. The daily discharge series from four stations along the main stem of the Hanjiang River, including a site upstream, were examined from 1950 to 2017. The study series was divided into three periods based on the difference stages of the reservoir operation: (1) 1950–1966, (2) 1967–2012 and (3) 2013–2017. The nature of hydrological alteration, ecological flow requirement and potential ecological risk during the different periods were investigated. The results clearly indicate that the DJK reservoir has significantly modified the hydrological regime in the middle and downstream section of the Hanjiang River, with most significant modifications recorded immediately downstream of the reservoir. None of the observed ‘Range of Variability Approach’ hydrological indicators fell within the expected range at Huangjiagang following the increase in reservoir capacity. As a result, the ecological flow requirements could not be guaranteed, and the frequency and intensity of ecodeficit increased. The river ecosystem immediately downstream of the dam was observed to be at high risk of ecosystem degradation during the post-dam periods considered.
Organic pollution of rivers: Combined threats of urbanization, livestock farming and global climate change
Organic pollution of rivers by wastewater discharge from human activities negatively impacts people and ecosystems. Without treatment, pollution control relies on a combination of natural degradation and dilution by natural runoff to reduce downstream effects. We quantify here for the first time the global sanitation crisis through its impact on organic river pollution from the threats of (1) increasing wastewater discharge due to urbanization and intensification of livestock farming, and (2) reductions in river dilution capacity due to climate change and water extractions. Using in-stream Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we calculate historical (2000) and future (2050) BOD concentrations in global river networks. Despite significant self-cleaning capacities of rivers, the number of people affected by organic pollution (BOD >5 mg/l) is projected to increase from 1.1 billion in 2000 to 2.5 billion in 2050. With developing countries disproportionately affected, our results point to a growing need for affordable wastewater solutions.
The Potential of Deep Learning for Satellite Rainfall Detection over Data-Scarce Regions, the West African Savanna
Food and economic security in West Africa rely heavily on rainfed agriculture and are threatened by climate change and demographic growth. Accurate rainfall information is therefore crucial to tackling these challenges. Particularly, information about the occurrence and length of droughts as well as the onset date of the rainy season is essential for agricultural planning. However, existing rainfall models fail to accurately represent the highly variable and sparsely monitored West African rainfall patterns. In this paper, we show the potential of deep learning (DL) to model rainfall in the region and propose a methodology to develop DL models in data-scarce areas. We built two DL models for satellite rainfall (rain/no-rain) detection over northern Ghana from Meteosat TIR data based on standard DL architectures: Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and convolutional long short-term memory neural networks (ConvLSTM). The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Imagery Using an Artificial Neural Network Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) products are used as benchmarks. We use rain gauge data from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) for model development and performance evaluation. We show that our models compare well against existing products despite being considerably simpler, developed with a small training dataset—i.e., 8 stations covering 2.5 years with 20.4% of the data missing—and using TIR data alone. Concretely, our models consistently outperform PERSIANN-CCS for rain/no-rain detection at a sub-daily timescale. While IMERG is the overall best performer, the DL models perform better in the second half of the rainy season despite their simplicity (i.e., up to 120 k parameters). Our results suggest that DL-based regional models are a promising alternative to state-of-the-art global products for providing regional rainfall information, especially in meteorologically complex regions such as the (sub)tropics, which are poorly covered by ground-based rainfall observations.
Inter-Annual and Seasonal Variability of Flows: Delivering Climate-Smart Environmental Flow Reference Values
Environmental flow (eflow) reference values play a key role in environmental water science and practice. In Mexico, eflow assessments are set by a norm in which the frequency of occurrence is the managing factor to integrate inter-annual and seasonal flow variability components into environmental water reserves. However, the frequency parameters have been used indistinctively between streamflow types. In this study, flow variability contributions in 40 rivers were evaluated based on hydrology, climate, and geography. Multivariate assessments were conducted based on a standardized contribution index for the river types grouping (principal components) and significant differences (one-way PERMANOVA). Eflow requirements for water allocation were calculated for different management objectives according to the frequency-of-occurrence baseline and an adjustment to reflect the differences between river types. Results reveal that there are significant differences in the flow variability between hydrological conditions and streamflow types (p-values < 0.05). The performance assessment reveals that the new frequency of occurrence delivers climate-smart reference values at least at an acceptable level (for 85–87% of the cases, r2 ≥ 0.8, slope ≤ 3.1), strengthening eflow assessments and implementations.