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Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision‐making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail. This publication is linked to the following EFSA Journal article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122/full

This document provides guidance for communicators on how to communicate the various expressions of uncertainty described in EFSA's document: ‘Guidance on uncertainty analysis in scientific assessments’. It also contains specific guidance for assessors on how best to report the various expressions of uncertainty. The document provides a template for identifying expressions of uncertainty in scientific assessments and locating the specific guidance for each expression. The guidance is structured according to EFSA's three broadly defined categories of target audience: ‘entry’, ‘informed’ and ‘technical’ levels. Communicators should use the guidance for entry and informed audiences, while assessors should use the guidance for the technical level. The guidance was formulated using evidence from the scientific literature, grey literature and two EFSA research studies, or based on judgement and reasoning where evidence was incomplete or missing. The limitations of the evidence sources inform the recommendations for further research on uncertainty communication. This publication is linked to the following EFSA Supporting Publications article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2019.EN-1540/full

To meet the general requirement for transparency in EFSA's work, all its scientific assessments must consider uncertainty. Assessments must say clearly and unambiguously what sources of uncertainty have been identified and what is their impact on the assessment conclusion. This applies to all EFSA's areas, all types of scientific assessment and all types of uncertainty affecting assessment. This current Opinion describes the principles and methods supporting a concise Guidance Document on Uncertainty in EFSA's Scientific Assessment, published separately. These documents do not prescribe specific methods for uncertainty analysis but rather provide a flexible framework within which different methods may be selected, according to the needs of each assessment. Assessors should systematically identify sources of uncertainty, checking each part of their assessment to minimise the risk of overlooking important uncertainties. Uncertainty may be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively. It is neither necessary nor possible to quantify separately every source of uncertainty affecting an assessment. However, assessors should express in quantitative terms the combined effect of as many as possible of identified sources of uncertainty. The guidance describes practical approaches. Uncertainty analysis should be conducted in a flexible, iterative manner, starting at a level appropriate to the assessment and refining the analysis as far as is needed or possible within the time available. The methods and results of the uncertainty analysis should be reported fully and transparently. Every EFSA Panel and Unit applied the draft Guidance to at least one assessment in their work area during a trial period of one year. Experience gained in this period resulted in improved guidance. The Scientific Committee considers that uncertainty analysis will be unconditional for EFSA Panels and staff and must be embedded into scientific assessment in all areas of EFSA's work. This publication is linked to the following EFSA Journal article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5123/full

The endocrine disrupting chemical bisphenol A (BPA) has been facing stricter regulations in recent years. BPA analogs, such as the bisphenols S, F, and AF (BPS, BPF, and BPAF) are increasingly used as replacement chemicals, although they were found to exert estrogenic effects similar to those of BPA. Research has shown that only the parent compounds have affinity to the estrogen receptors, suggesting that the pharmacokinetic behavior of bisphenols (BPs) can influence their potency. Our goal was to compare the pharmacokinetic behaviors of BPA, BPS, BPF, and BPAF for different age groups after environmentally relevant external exposures by taking into account substance-specific metabolism kinetics and partitioning behavior. This comparison allowed us to investigate the consequences of replacing BPA with other BPs. We readjusted a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for peroral exposure to BPA and extended it to include dermal exposure. We experimentally assessed hepatic and intestinal glucuronidation kinetics of BPS, BPF, and BPAF to parametrize the model for these BPs and calibrated the BPS model with a biomonitoring study. We used the PBPK models to compare resulting internal exposures and focused on females of childbearing age in a two-dimensional Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. Within environmentally relevant concentration ranges, BPAF and BPS were glucuronized at highest and lowest rates, respectively, in the intestine and the liver. The predominant routes of BPS and BPAF exposure were peroral and dermal exposure, respectively. The calibration of the BPS model with measured concentrations showed that enterohepatic recirculation may be important. Assuming equal external exposures, BPS exposure led to the highest internal concentrations of unconjugated BPs. Our data suggest that the replacement of BPA with structural analogs may not lower the risk for endocrine disruption. Exposure to both BPS and BPAF might be more critical than BPA exposure, if their respective estrogenic potencies are taken into account. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2739.

Food is a major pathway for human exposure to hazardous chemicals. The modern food system is becoming increasingly complex and globalized, but models for food-borne exposure typically assume locally derived diets or use concentrations directly measured in foods without accounting for food origin. Such approaches may not reflect actual chemical intakes because concentrations depend on food origin, and representative analysis is seldom available. Processing, packaging, storage, and transportation also impart different chemicals to food and are not yet adequately addressed. Thus, the link between environmental emissions and realistic human exposure is effectively broken. We discuss the need for a fully integrated treatment of the modern industrialized food system, and we propose strategies for using existing models and relevant supporting data sources to track chemicals during production, processing, packaging, storage, and transport. Fate and bioaccumulation models describe how chemicals distribute in the environment and accumulate through local food webs. Human exposure models can use concentrations in food to determine body burdens based on individual or population characteristics. New models now include the impacts of processing and packaging but are far from comprehensive. We propose to close the gap between emissions and exposure by utilizing a wider variety of models and data sources, including global food trade data, processing, and packaging models. A comprehensive approach that takes into account the complexity of the modern global food system is essential to enable better prediction of human exposure to chemicals in food, sound risk assessments, and more focused risk abatement strategies. Citation: Ng CA, von Goetz N. 2017. The global food system as a transport pathway for hazardous chemicals: the missing link between emissions and exposure. Environ Health Perspect 125:1-7; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP168.

Silver is a strong antibiotic that is increasingly incorporated into consumer products as a bulk, salt, or nanosilver, thus potentially causing side-effects related to human exposure. However, the fate and behavior of (nano)silver in the human body is presently not well understood. In order to aggregate the existing experimental information, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK) was developed in this study for ionic silver and nanosilver. The structure of the model was established on the basis of toxicokinetic data from intravenous studies. The number of calibrated parameters was minimized in order to enhance the predictive capability of the model. We validated the model structure for both silver forms by reproducing exposure conditions (dermal, oral, and inhalation) of in vivo experiments and comparing simulated and experimentally assessed organ concentrations. Therefore, the percutaneous, intestinal, or pulmonary absorption fraction was estimated based on the blood silver concentration of the respective experimental data set. In all of the cases examined, the model could successfully predict the biodistribution of ionic silver and 15-150 nm silver nanoparticles, which were not coated with substances designed to prolong the circulatory time (eg, polyethylene glycol). Furthermore, the results of our model indicate that: (1) within the application domain of our model, the particle size and coating had a minor influence on the biodistribution; (2) in vivo, it is more likely that silver nanoparticles are directly stored as insoluble salt particles than dissolve into Ag⁺; and (3) compartments of the mononuclear phagocytic system play a minor role in exposure levels that are relevant for human consumers. We also give an example of how the model can be used in exposure and risk assessments based on five different exposure scenarios, namely dietary intake, use of three separate consumer products, and occupational exposure.

A large-scale national cohort aiming at investigating the health status and determinants in the general population is essential for high-quality public health research and regulatory decision-making. We present the protocol and first results of the pilot phase to a Swiss national cohort aiming at establishing the study procedures, evaluating feasibility, and assessing participation and willingness to participate. The pilot phase 2020/21 included 3 components recruited via different channels: a population-based cross-sectional study targeting the adult population (20-69 years) of the Vaud and Bern cantons via personal invitation, a sub-study on selenium in a convenience sample of vegans and vegetarians via non-personal invitation in vegan/vegetarian networks, and a self-selected sample via news promotion (restricted protocol). Along with a participatory approach and participation, we tested the study procedures including online questionnaires, onsite health examination, food intake, physical activity assessments and biosample collection following high-quality standards. The population-based study and the selenium sub-study had 638 (participation rate: 14%) and 109 participants, respectively, both with an over-representation of women. Of altogether 1349 recruited participants over 90% expressed interest in participating to a national health study, over 75% to contribute to medicine progress and help improving others' health, whereas about one third expressed concerns over data protection and data misuse. Publicly accessible high-quality public health data and human biomonitoring samples were collected. There is high interest of the general population in taking part in a national cohort on health. Challenges reside in achieving a higher participation rate and external validity. For project management clear governance is key.

Background The lung epithelial tissue barrier represents the main portal for entry of inhaled nanoparticles (NPs) into the systemic circulation. Thus great efforts are currently being made to determine adverse health effects associated with inhalation of NPs. However, to date very little is known about factors that determine the pulmonary translocation of NPs and their subsequent distribution to secondary organs. Methods A novel two-step approach to assess the biokinetics of inhaled NPs is presented. In a first step, alveolar epithelial cellular monolayers (CMLs) at the air-liquid interface (ALI) were exposed to aerosolized NPs to determine their translocation kinetics across the epithelial tissue barrier. Then, in a second step, the distribution to secondary organs was predicted with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Monodisperse, spherical, well-characterized, negatively charged gold nanoparticles (AuNP) were used as model NPs. Furthermore, to obtain a comprehensive picture of the translocation kinetics in different species, human (A549) and mouse (MLE-12) alveolar epithelial CMLs were exposed to ionic gold and to various doses ( i.e., 25, 50, 100, 150, 200 ng/cm 2 ) and sizes ( i.e., 2, 7, 18, 46, 80 nm) of AuNP, and incubated post-exposure for different time periods ( i.e., 0, 2, 8, 24, 48, 72 h). Results The translocation kinetics of the AuNP across A549 and MLE-12 CMLs was similar. The translocated fraction was (1) inversely proportional to the particle size, and (2) independent of the applied dose (up to 100 ng/cm 2 ). Furthermore, supplementing the A549 CML with two immune cells, i.e., macrophages and dendritic cells, did not significantly change the amount of translocated AuNP. Comparison of the measured translocation kinetics and modeled biodistribution with in vivo data from literature showed that the combination of in vitro and in silico methods can accurately predict the in vivo biokinetics of inhaled/instilled AuNP. Conclusion Our approach to combine in vitro and in silico methods for assessing the pulmonary translocation and biodistribution of NPs has the potential to replace short-term animal studies which aim to assess the pulmonary absorption and biodistribution of NPs, and to serve as a screening tool to identify NPs of special concern.

Background This paper explores the feasibility of establishing a large-scale population-based cohort and biobank in Switzerland by assessing potential participants’ needs, expectations, and concerns about such an infrastructure providing information on health, lifestyle, and exposure trajectories, the development of disease, and risk factors over time. Methods We utilized a scenario-based questionnaire in the Swiss Health Study pilot phase (2020–2021), involving 1349 adults aged 20–69 from the cantons Vaud and Bern. We conducted descriptive statistics supported by R and qualitative content analysis of n  = 374 open responses related to attitudes towards research. Results We highlight the benefits and challenges of the scenario-based approach, discuss the sample represented in the pilot phase, and present implications for building a full cohort. We also report on participants’ attitudes towards and previous experience with health research. We analyze references regarding informed consent and feedback, attitudes towards the Swiss Health Study, and recommendations on improving its scope, design, and instruments. Results indicate a high interest (90%) in participating in a national health study, with 85% of a random population sample willing to join a long-term cohort. Only 43% were familiar with biobanks, and 44% preferred general consent. Trust was high for Swiss-based public research but lower for researchers from other countries or private sector. Over 95% expressed willingness to complete online questionnaires, undergo physical examination, and donate biosamples. Almost all participants wanted to know the outcomes of the medical tests (99.5%) and the exposure to environmental stressors (95%) from their study center visit. Preferred tools for monitoring sleep, physical activity, and diet were known smartphone apps with automatic data management. Conclusion Overall, the study reveals a positive attitude towards personalized health research, with a strong willingness to share data and samples. Key insights focus the meaning of informed consent for participation, the relevance of sampling and representativeness, as well as the significance and challenges of personalized feedback, especially regarding environmental health concerns. Findings emphasize participants’ supportive yet reflexive stances, underscoring the importance of aligning research values with individual values in personalized health research. These insights contribute valuable considerations for refining the scope, design, and instruments of future cohort studies.

Consumer spray products are already on the market in the cosmetics and household sector, which suggest by their label that they contain engineered nanoparticles (ENP). Sprays are considered critical for human health, because the lungs represent a major route for the uptake of ENP into the human body. To contribute to the exposure assessment of ENP in consumer spray products, we analyzed ENP in four commercially available sprays: one antiperspirant, two shoe impregnation sprays, and one plant-strengthening agent. The spray dispersions were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS) and (scanning-) transmission electron microscopy ((S)TEM). Aerosols were generated by using the original vessels, and analyzed by scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) and (S)TEM. On the basis of SMPS results, the nanosized aerosol depositing in the respiratory tract was modeled for female and male consumers. The derived exposure levels reflect a single spray application. We identified ENP in the dispersions of two products (shoe impregnation and plant spray). Nanosized aerosols were observed in three products that contained propellant gas. The aerosol number concentration increased linearly with the sprayed amount, with the highest concentration resulting from the antiperspirant. Modeled aerosol exposure levels were in the range of 10 10 nanosized aerosol components per person and application event for the antiperspirant and the impregnation sprays, with the largest fraction of nanosized aerosol depositing in the alveolar region. Negligible exposure from the application of the plant spray (pump spray) was observed.