Explore the vast range of titles available.

Access to clean, affordable and reliable energy has been a cornerstone of the world's increasing prosperity and economic growth since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Our use of energy in the twenty–first century must also be sustainable. Solar and water–based energy generation, and engineering of microbes to produce biofuels are a few examples of the alternatives. This Perspective puts these opportunities into a larger context by relating them to a number of aspects in the transportation and electricity generation sectors. It also provides a snapshot of the current energy landscape and discusses several research and development opportunities and pathways that could lead to a prosperous, sustainable and secure energy future for the world.

To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources, change in mean annual runoff (MAR) is only a first indicator. In addition, it is necessary to analyze changes of river flow regimes, i.e. changes in the temporal dynamics of river discharge, as these are important for the well-being of humans (e.g. with respect to water supply) and freshwater-dependent biota (e.g. with respect to habitat availability). Therefore, we investigated, in a global-scale hydrological modeling study, the relation between climate-induced changes of MAR and changes of a number of river flow regime indicators, including mean river discharge, statistical low and high flows, and mean seasonal discharge. In addition, we identified, for the first time at the global scale, where flow regime shifts from perennial to intermittent flow regimes (or vice versa) may occur due to climate change. Climate-induced changes of all considered river flow regime indicators (except seasonal river flow changes) broadly follow the spatial pattern of MAR changes. The differences among the computed changes of MAR due to the application of the two climate models are larger than the differences between the change of MAR and the change of the diverse river flow indicators for one climate model. At the sub-basin and grid cell scales, however, there are significant differences between the changes of MAR, mean annual river discharge, and low and high flows. Low flows are projected to be more than halved by the 2050s in almost twice the area as compared to MAR. Similarly, northern hemisphere summer flows decrease more strongly than MAR. Differences between the high emissions scenario A2 (with emissions of 25 Gt C yr−1 in the 2050s) and the low emissions scenario B2 (16 Gt C yr−1) are generally small as compared to the differences due to the two climate models. The benefits of avoided emissions are, however, significant in those areas where flows are projected to be more than halved due to climate change. If emissions were constrained to the B2 scenario, the area with ecologically relevant flow regime shifts would be reduced to 5.4%-6.7% of the global land area as compared to 6.3%-7.0% in A2. In particular, under the B2 scenario, fewer rivers will change from perennial to intermittent (or transitional) river flows.

Filip Reyntjens's book analyzes political governance in post-genocide Rwanda and focuses on the rise of the authoritarian Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). In the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, the RPF has employed various means - rigged elections, elimination of opposition parties and civil society, legislation outlawing dissenting opinions, and terrorism - to consolidate power and perpetuate its position as the nation's ruling party. Although many international observers have hailed Rwanda as a 'success story' for its technocratic governance, societal reforms, and economic development, Reyntjens complicates this picture by casting light on the regime's human rights abuses, social engineering projects, information management schemes, and retributive justice system.

Atmospheric observations from a boreal forest region, laboratory experiments and theoretical considerations are combined, and another compound is identified that has a significant capacity to oxidize sulphur dioxide and potentially other trace gases. Unknown 'extra' atmospheric oxidizing agent Ozone, the hydroxyl radical and nitrate are thought to be the main agents that act to remove trace gases, including pollutants, from the atmosphere. In this paper, the authors combine atmospheric observations from a forested region of Finland, laboratory experiments and theoretical considerations to identify another, previously unknown compound with significant capacity to oxidize sulphur dioxide and perhaps other trace gases. The compound seems to be a stabilized Criegee intermediate — a carbonyl oxide with two free-radical sites — or its derivative and could potentially enhance the reactivity of the atmosphere, contributing to the production of sulphuric acid and, consequently, atmospheric-aerosol formation. The chemistry investigated here is tightly connected with the presence of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and thereby with forest emissions. Atmospheric oxidation is a key phenomenon that connects atmospheric chemistry with globally challenging environmental issues, such as climate change 1 , stratospheric ozone loss 2 , acidification of soils and water 3 , and health effects of air quality 4 . Ozone, the hydroxyl radical and the nitrate radical are generally considered to be the dominant oxidants that initiate the removal of trace gases, including pollutants, from the atmosphere. Here we present atmospheric observations from a boreal forest region in Finland, supported by laboratory experiments and theoretical considerations, that allow us to identify another compound, probably a stabilized Criegee intermediate (a carbonyl oxide with two free-radical sites) or its derivative, which has a significant capacity to oxidize sulphur dioxide and potentially other trace gases. This compound probably enhances the reactivity of the atmosphere, particularly with regard to the production of sulphuric acid, and consequently atmospheric aerosol formation. Our findings suggest that this new atmospherically relevant oxidation route is important relative to oxidation by the hydroxyl radical, at least at moderate concentrations of that radical. We also find that the oxidation chemistry of this compound seems to be tightly linked to the presence of alkenes of biogenic origin.

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.

As reported by FAO (2005 State of the World's Forests (Rome: UNFAO), 2010 Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010/095 (Rome: UNFAO)), Indonesia experiences the second highest rate of deforestation among tropical countries. Hence, timely and accurate forest data are required to combat deforestation and forest degradation in support of climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation policy initiatives. Within Indonesia, Sumatra Island stands out due to the intensive forest clearing that has resulted in the conversion of 70% of the island's forested area through 2010. We present here a hybrid approach for quantifying the extent and change of primary forest in Sumatra in terms of primary intact and primary degraded classes using a per-pixel supervised classification mapping followed by a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based fragmentation analysis. Loss of Sumatra's primary intact and primary degraded forests was estimated to provide suitable information for the objectives of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD and REDD+) program. Results quantified 7.54 Mha of primary forest loss in Sumatra during the last two decades (1990-2010). An additional 2.31 Mha of primary forest was degraded. Of the 7.54 Mha cleared, 7.25 Mha was in a degraded state when cleared, and 0.28 Mha was in a primary state. The rate of primary forest cover change for both forest cover loss and forest degradation slowed over the study period, from 7.34 Mha from 1990 to 2000, to 2.51 Mha from 2000 to 2010. The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) data set was employed to evaluate results. GLAS-derived tree canopy height indicated a significant structural difference between primary intact and primary degraded forests (mean height 28 m ± 8.7 m and 19 m ± 8.2 m, respectively). The results demonstrate a method for quantifying primary forest cover stand-replacement disturbance and degradation that can be replicated across the tropics in support of REDD+ initiatives.

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration-response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr−1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.

Purpose The aim of this study was to compare morning and evening time-trial performance, RPE and mood state of trained swimmers, taking into account chronotype, habitual training time-of-day and PERIOD3 (PER3) variable number tandem repeat genotype. Methods Twenty-six swimmers (18 males, age: 32.6 ± 5.7 years) swam 200 m time trials (TT) at 06h30 and 18h30 in a randomised order. Results There was no difference between morning and evening performance when the swimmers were considered as a single group (06h30: 158.8 ± 22.7 s, 18h30: 158.5 ± 22.0 s, p  = 0.611). However, grouping swimmers by chronotype and habitual training time-of-day allowed us to detect significant diurnal variation in performance, such that morning-type swimmers and those who habitually train in the morning were faster in the 06h30 TT ( p  = 0.036 and p  = 0.011, respectively). This was accompanied by lower ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) scores post-warm-up, higher vigour and lower fatigues scores prior to the 06h30 TT in morning-type swimmers or those who trained in the morning. Similarly, neither types and those who trained in the evenings had lower fatigue and higher vigour prior to the 18h30 TT. Conclusions It appears that both chronotype and habitual training time-of-day need to be considered when assessing diurnal variation in performance. From a practical point of view, athletes and coaches should be aware of the potentially powerful effect of training time on shifting time-of-day variation in performance.

PURPOSE: As a consequence of the multi-functionality of land, the impact assessment of land use in Life Cycle Impact Assessment requires the modelling of several impact pathways covering biodiversity and ecosystem services. To provide consistency amongst these separate impact pathways, general principles for their modelling are provided in this paper. These are refinements to the principles that have already been proposed in publications by the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative. In particular, this paper addresses the calculation of land use interventions and land use impacts, the issue of impact reversibility, the spatial and temporal distribution of such impacts and the assessment of absolute or relative ecosystem quality changes. Based on this, we propose a guideline to build methods for land use impact assessment in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). RESULTS: Recommendations are given for the development of new characterization models and for which a series of key elements should explicitly be stated, such as the modelled land use impact pathways, the land use/cover typology covered, the level of biogeographical differentiation used for the characterization factors, the reference land use situation used and if relative or absolute quality changes are used to calculate land use impacts. Moreover, for an application of the characterisation factors (CFs) in an LCA study, data collection should be transparent with respect to the data input required from the land use inventory and the regeneration times. Indications on how generic CFs can be used for the background system as well as how spatial-based CFs can be calculated for the foreground system in a specific LCA study and how land use change is to be allocated should be detailed. Finally, it becomes necessary to justify the modelling period for which land use impacts of land transformation and occupation are calculated and how uncertainty is accounted for. DISCUSSION: The presented guideline is based on a number of assumptions: Discrete land use types are sufficient for an assessment of land use impacts; ecosystem quality remains constant over time of occupation; time and area of occupation are substitutable; transformation time is negligible; regeneration is linear and independent from land use history and landscape configuration; biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services are independent; the ecological impact is linearly increasing with the intervention; and there is no interaction between land use and other drivers such as climate change. These assumptions might influence the results of land use Life Cycle Impact Assessment and need to be critically reflected. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: In this and the other papers of the special issue, we presented the principles and recommendations for the calculation of land use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services on a global scale. In the framework of LCA, they are mainly used for the assessment of land use impacts in the background system. The main areas for further development are the link to regional ecological models running in the foreground system, relative weighting of the ecosystem services midpoints and indirect land use.

Climate warming affects permafrost soil carbon pools in two opposing ways: enhanced vegetation growth leads to higher carbon inputs to the soil, whereas permafrost melting accelerates decomposition and hence carbon release. Here, we study the spatial and temporal dynamics of these two processes under scenarios of climate change and evaluate their influence on the carbon balance of the permafrost zone. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, which simulates plant physiological and ecological processes and includes a newly developed discrete layer energy balance permafrost module and a vertical carbon distribution within the soil layer. The model is able to reproduce the interactions between vegetation and soil carbon dynamics as well as to simulate dynamic permafrost changes resulting from changes in the climate. We find that vegetation responds more rapidly to warming of the permafrost zone than soil carbon pools due to long time lags in permafrost thawing, and that the initial simulated net uptake of carbon may continue for some decades of warming. However, once the turning point is reached, if carbon release exceeds uptake, carbon is lost irreversibly from the system and cannot be compensated for by increasing vegetation carbon input. Our analysis highlights the importance of including dynamic vegetation and long-term responses into analyses of permafrost zone carbon budgets.