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"التضخم المالي"
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التضخم في الصميم
التضخم في صميم الأزمة ليس التضخم النقدي ارتفاع الأسعار وحسب، كما يبدو للوهلة الأولى، بل هو في صميم الأزمة الراهنة للاقتصاد العالمي كما يشير إلى ذلك عنوان هذا الكتاب، أنه سبب البطالة وأزمة السكن وارتفاع أجور النقل وهبوط سعر النقد المحلي في أسواق العملة، وقف النمو أو تباطؤه وعدم الاستقرار .. ألخ، أذ انه يفني البعض ويفقر البعض الآخر بحيث يبدل البنى الاجتماعية كلها-وبالدرجة الأولى البنية الطبقية كما يبدل أخلاقية الناس. فما هو التضخم ؟ سؤال تربك الاجابة عنه الاقتصادي نفسه. والمؤلفان-الأول سياسي فرنسي معروف والثاني اقتصادي فرنسي معروف أيضا بردان التضخم إلى أسباب ثلاثة-الواحد بنيوي والثاني سوسيولوجي والثالث المضاربة-هي بالنتيجة واحد : النظام البورجوازي. ومن المنطقي أن يكون الحل هو النظام الاشتراكي. فالمؤلفان وكلاهما اشتراكي يقترحان طريقا فرنسية لبدايات نظام اشتراكي ومن المفيد أن يتأمل المرء في الازمة وفي حلها.
Book
Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Inflation in Algeria
In this paper, we examine the asymmetric effects of both the world oil price and the exchange rate on inflation in Algeria using annual data from 1973 to 2021. In doing so, we employed the newly established Non-Linear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to divide oil price and exchange rate fluctuations into positive and negative variations. The empirical results show that fluctuations in oil prices have an asymmetric effect on Algerian inflation in both the short and long term. More importantly, we discover that positive oil price increases have an asymmetrically greater effect on inflation than negative oil price changes. Furthermore, a rise in the Algerian dinar's depreciation is significantly increasing Algeria's inflation, whereas a decline in the exchange rate (the Algerian dinar's appreciation) fails to decrease inflation. Yet, the asymmetric impact of exchange rate fluctuations to inflation is only in the short run.
Journal Article
Fiscal Signals and Inflationary Response
This study investigates the dynamic and long-run relationship between key fiscal and monetary policy variables and inflation in Egypt during the period 1990-2024, with a specific emphasis on the role of economic crises. Using annual time series data and employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach, the analysis assesses the impact of government spending (GSP) , broad money supply (M2) , exchange rate (ER) , and crisis episodes (CRISIS) on inflation (INF). The results of the F-Bounds test confirm the existence of a stable long-term cointegration relationship among the variables. Empirical estimates indicate that money supply (M2) exerts a strong and statistically significant inflationary effect, both in the short and long run, affirming classical monetary theory. The exchange rate shows mixed but largely significant effects, reflecting its critical role in driving inflation through both direct and lagged channels. Crisis periods are found to amplify inflationary pressures, particularly in the immediate term, while government spending demonstrates delayed and modest effects, depending on its composition and direction. The model passes all major diagnostic and stability tests, confirming its robustness and reliability. Based on these findings, the study offers a set of actionable recommendations, including: (1) enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, (2) adopting a proactive and data-driven monetary stance, (3) implementing calibrated exchange rate flexibility, and (4) reallocating public expenditure toward productive investments and structural supply-side improvements. These policy measures are vital for improving inflation targeting and safeguarding macroeconomic stability, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty and crisis.
Journal Article
