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"الديون"
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The Impact of Debt Structure on Future Stock Price Crash Risk
The main objective of the study is to determine the extent impact of debt structure proxies on future stock price crash risk and its different measures in order to mitigate stock price crash risk and help investors to understand better crash risk consequences and modify their investing behavior. Additionally, it is a guide for regulators to better achieve the credit market and to create an intact credit protection system. The study was conducted on a sample of (13) firms representing (40.6%) of the total number of the real estate sector firms listed in the Egyptian Stock Exchange during the period from 2013 to 2019. The empirical results concluded that firms with high each of trade credit ratio, net trade credit ratio, trade credit to bank credit ratio, and debt structure characteristics have a lower stock price crash risk which was measured as negative conditional skewness of weekly returns, down-to-up volatility, and aggregate stock price crash risk. As for the control variables namely average weekly returns, financial leverage, and return on total assets were negatively significant for all three measures of stock price crash risk. Whilst, the firm size was a positively significant impact on stock price crash risk. While the study indicated that there was an insignificant impact of the bank credit ratio and the control variables namely investor heterogeneity, returns volatility, and market-to-book ratio on stock price crash risk measures in the future. The study also presented valuable recom-mendations to increase the different monitoring roles of the debt structure proxies in decreasing opportunistic behaviors and alleviating the likelihood of future stock price crash risk in Egypt which finally leads to rationalizing stakeholders' decisions.
Journal Article
أزمة الديون الخارجية في الدول العربية والإفريقية
يتعرض هذا الكتاب بالشرح والتحليل لتطور حجم الديون الخارجية وهيكلها وأسبابها وأسباب الاتجاه إلى إعادة الجدولة، ودوافع تلك العملية لدى الدول الدائنة والمدينة، وتطور ممارسات نادي باريس ونادي لندن في إطار إدارتهما لأزمة الديون الخارجية، والصعوبات التي واجهت الدول النامية بصورة عامة والدول العربية والإفريقية بصفة خاصة في مفاوضاتها لإعادة الجدولة، والعوامل التي أثرت في فاعلية إعادة الجدولة في علاج أزمة الديون، وكذلك دراسة وتحديد العوامل المؤثرة في قدرة الدول على سداد الديون من خلال التعرف على العديد من الدراسات التي تعرضت لهذا الموضوع، بالإضافة إلى دراسة الانعكاسات المستقبلية لعملية إعادة الجدولة على عبء الديون الخارجية في الفترة (1991-2004)، وذلك من خلال دراسة عينة من الدول تشمل مصر وجمهورية الكونجو الديمقراطية وساحل العاج ؛ نظرا لأن هذه الدول حسب تصنيف البنك الدولي كانت في الثمانينيات مثقلة بالمديونية الخارجية وبالتالي لجأت إلى إعادة جدولة ديونها الخارجية أكثر من مرة.
Book
Financialization and External Debts in the MENA Region
Considering the growing exposure of the financialization concept, the literature has shown the financialization of developing and emerging economies (DEEs) from different aspects. One of these aspects is the increasing capability of DEEs' governments to borrow and be heavily dependent on financial markets. Therefore, this study aim to explore the conceptual framework of financialization, to examines the relationship between financialization and external debts in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA). The study likewise attempted to forecast the value of Egypt's external debt stocks as one of the DEEs' countries from 2020 to 2024; using the ARIMA model; to demonstrate financialization. The study concludes that there is massive increase in external and government debts in the MENA region within the period from 2011 to 2019 as a feature of financialization and the amplified dependence on the financial markets. Furthermore, it has been concluded that Egypt's external debts are expected to rise from 2020 to 2024.
Journal Article
