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82 result(s) for "增长率"
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Characteristics of coastline changes in mainland China since the early 1940s
Based on multi-temporal topographic maps, remote sensing images and field surveys covering the entire coastal zone of mainland China, the coastlines of six periods since the early 1940s were extracted. Coastline changes over the last 70 years were then analyzed in terms of coastline structure, coastline fractals, coastline change rates, land-sea patterns, and bay areas. The results showed that mainland coastline structure changed dramatically, and due to the significant coastline artificialization mainly driven by sea reclamation and coastal engineering, the remaining natural coastline merely accounts for less than one third at present. Coastline fractal dimension represented an overall spatial pattern of "north 〈 entirety 〈 south"; however, the discrepancy between the north and south coast was apparently narrowed due to dramatic coastline artificialization of northern China which in turn altered the whole pattern. Patterns and processes of land-sea interchange along the mainland coast were complex and varied spatially and temporally, with over 68% advancing toward sea and 22% retreating toward land. The net growth of land area was nearly 14.2 ×10^3 km2 with an average growth rate of 202.82 km2 al; and coast retreat was characterized by area decrease of 93 bays with a magnitude of 10.1 ×10^3 km2 and an average shrinking rate up to 18.19% or an average shrinking speed up to 144.20 km2 a-1, among which the total area of Bohai shrunk by 7.06%, with an average annual loss amounting to 82 km2. The dramatic coastline changes along mainland China have brought about kinds of challenges to the coastal environment, therefore the integrated management, effective environment protection and sustainable utilization of coastlines is urgent.
Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation
Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic(SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China's population will still settle in rural regions of China.
A comprehensive assessment of urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation in China
The urban vulnerability poses a serious challenge to achieving sustainable devel- opment. With the concentration of the population and the economy, cities must manage the higher frequencies and risks of various hazards and are becoming more vulnerable. Re- search on the assessment and regulatory control of urban vulnerability is of great significance for both urbanization quality improvement and sustainable development in China or other countries in the world. Because of the complexity of cities and vulnerability concepts, existing studies have focused on different aspects of urban vulnerability. And the research content of urban vulnerability is scattered and relatively independent, leading to a lack of comparability among the research data and resulting in tremendous difficulties in summarizing the conclu- sions through comparison of independent research data. Therefore the goal of this study was to construct urban vulnerability index (UV/) from the perspective of sustainable development that could assess urban vulnerability comprehensively. In this study, we selected 10 subin- dexes involving 36 specific parameters from four aspects (resources, eco-environmental sys- tems, economics, and social development) to construct a comprehensive index system. We also established the standard values of measurements. Then we take 288 prefecture-level cities in China as a study area and evaluate its overall urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation. Results indicate that urban vulnerability of China has a remarkable spatial differentiation of both "gradient distribution" and "clustered distribution"; the extent of urban vulnerability corresponds to city size, the bigger the city, the lower its vulnerability; re- source-based cities are more vulnerable than comprehensive cities; a city's economic growth rate does not reflect the extent of its urban vulnerability. Further, we offer a few suggestions to cope with urban vulnerability in China.
Major Function Oriented Zone: New Method of Spatial Regulation for Reshaping Regional Development Pattern in China
Newest planning methods implemented by Chinese government are promoting a coordinated regional development and shaping an orderly spatial structure by applying the regulation of territorial function. This article analyzes the problems of spatial planning and regional strategy caused by the wrongly-set primary goal of economic development; it states that the three-fold objective of competitiveness, sustainability, and welfare fairness shall be the principal for China to implement the spatial regulation in the new era; it discusses about theoretical thoughts and tech- nology framework of conducting the 'Major Function Oriented Zone' based on their different major functions that each region plays in urbanization and industrialization, ecological constructions, grain productions, and protection of natural and cultural heritages; it introduces the new concept of 'Major Function Oriented Zone' that include the major func- tions category, the stereo regional equilibrium mode, the two-level zoning specification, and the territorial development intensity; it offers a zoning scheme that defines development-optimized and development-prioritized zones as regions with massive urbanization and industrialization, development-restricted zones as ecological constructing or grain pro- ducing regions, development-prohibited zones as natural and cultural heritage protecting regions; and finally it ad- dresses the main obstacle for implementing 'Major Function Oriented Zone', which is the institutional arrangement of the supreme goal of high GDP growth rate that is currently being implemented.
Key features of new particle formation events at background sites in China and their influence on cloud condensation nuclei
Long-term continuous measurements of particle number size distributions with mobility diameter sizes ranging from 3 to 800 nm were pertbrmed to study new particle formation (NPF) events at Shangdianzi (SDZ), Mt. Tai (TS), and Lin'an (LAN) stations representing the background atmospheric conditions in the North China Plain (NCP) Central East China (CEC) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions, respectively. The mean formation rate of 3-nm particles was 6.3, 3.7, and 5.8 cm -3 .s-1, and the mean particle growth rate was 3.6, 6.0, and 6.2 nm. h at SDZ, TS, and LAN, respectively. The NPF, event characteristics at the three sites indicate that there may be a stronger source of low volatile vapors and higher condensational sink of pre-existing particles in the YRD region. The formation rate of NPF events at these sites, as well as the condensation sink, is approximately 10 times higher than some results reported at rural/urban sites in western countries. However, the growth rates appear to be 1 2 times higher. Approximately 12%-17% of all NPF events with nucleated particles grow to a climate- relevant size (〉50 nm). These kinds of NPF events were normally observed with higher growth rate than the other NPF cases. Generally, the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration can be enhanced by approximately a factor of 2 6 on these event days. The mean value of the enhancement factor is lowest at LAN (2-3) and highest at SDZ (-4). NPF events have also been found to have greater impact on CCN production in China at the regional scale than in the other background sites worldwide.
Parameterization of Sheared Entrainment in a Well-developed CBL. Part Ih A Simple Model for Predicting the Growth Rate of the CBL
Following the parameterization of sheared entrainment obtained in the companion paper, Liu et al. (2016), the present study aims to further investigate the characteristics of entrainment, and develop a simple model for predicting the growth rate of a well-developed and sheared CBL. The relative stratification, defined as the ratio of the stratification in the free atmosphere to that in the entrainment zone, is found to be a function of entrainment flux ratio (Ae). This leads to a simple expression of the entrainment rate, in which Ae needs to be parameterized. According to the results in Liu et al. (2016), Ae can be simply expressed as the ratio of the convective velocity scale in the sheared CBL to that in the shear-free CBL. The parameterization of the convective velocity scale in the sheared CBL is obtained by analytically solving the bulk model with several assumptions and approximations. Results indicate that the entrainment process is influenced by the dynamic effect, the interaction between mean shear and environmental stratification, and one other term that includes the Coriolis effect. These three parameterizations constitute a simple model for predicting the growth rate of a well-developed and sheared CBL. This model is validated by outputs of LESs, and the results show that it performs satisfactorily. Compared with bulk models, this model does not need to solve a set of equations for the CBL. It is more convenient to apply in numerical models.
Leukemia Study in Sulaymaniyah Province, Kurdistan, Iraq
To the Editor: The increased rate of leukemia in several Iraqi cities has been linked to exposure to depleted uranium, which was used during the consequent wars in lraq from 1990 to 2010.11-41 Here, we investigated leukemia occurrence in the Sulaymaniyah Governorate (SG), which has been exposed to wars and crises at the same level as the rest of Iraq.151 To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first population-based study on leukemia in SG.
China under Uncertainty: Outlook, Counterfactual and Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation--A Summary of Annual Report (2016-2017)
China's macroeconomy is surrounded by increased uncertainties while facing persistent downward pressures entering year 2017. Major external challenges are imposed by the chaotic political climate and disorderly retreat from globalization of the US accompanied with the impending FED rate hikes, which may trigger a destructive trade war and exert pressures on RMB depreciation and capital flight. Remaining ingrained in major internal challenges are the gridlock risks accumulated from excessive financialization of real estate sector and swelling housing market bubbles amid escalating debt levels, and more fundamentally, the continued off-real-to-virtual movement in the general economy and ascendancy of government over market in resource allocation.Based on IAR-CMM model, which takes into account both cyclical and secular factors, the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.5% in 2017 (6.13% using more reliable instead of official data). Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are also conducted to highlight the convoluted uncertainties surrounding China's macroeconomy. Through the lens of these analyses, we identify a root cause of the weak outlook as the persistently distorted economic structure due to procrastination in reforms of the institutions and governance, which not only impairs China's growth potential but also limits the power of its recent stimulating policies while exacerbating their side effects. Key to successful economic restructuring in the face of adversely evolving demographics are market-oriented reforms, with well-designed strategies to balance short-term stabilization and long-run development. Such reforms should hold center stage in China's transition towards a modern free market economy and regulatory state.
Natural History of Small Renal Masses
Objective:To review the natural history and growth kinetics of small renal masses (SRMs).Data Sources:The literature concerning natural history and growth kinetics of SRMs was collected from PubMed published from 1990 to 2014.Study Selection:We included all the relevant articles on the active surveillance (AS) or delayed treatment for SRMs in English,with no limitation of study design.Results:SRMs under AS have a slow growth potential in general.The mean linear growth rate is 0.33 cm/year,the mean volumetric growth rate is 9.48 cm3/year.The rate of metastasis during AS is below 2%.Some factors are associated with the growth rate of SRMs,including tumor grade,histological subtype,initial tumor size,age,radiographic characteristics,and molecular markers.No definite predictor of growth rate of SRMs is defined at present.SRMs with high tumor grade and the subtype of clear cell renal cell carcinoma may have aggressive growth potential.Conclusions:AS is a reasonable choice for elderly patients with SRMs,who are at high risk from surgery.Progression during observation is the biggest concern while performing AS.There is no definite predictor of progression for SRMs under AS.Percutaneous renal biopsy providing immunohistological and genic biomarkers may improve the understanding of natural history of SRMs.
40Ar/39Ar dating of cryptomelane from the Baye manganese deposit, SW Yunnan, China: Implications for growth rate of supergene Mn-oxide veins
Supergene Mn-oxide deposits are commonly related to thick weathering profiles and form as a result of intense and prolonged weathering of Mn-bearing precursor rocks, processes facilitated by a combination of multiple factors including warm and wet climate, relatively quiescent tectonic environment, and favorable geomorphic setting. Precise age constraints of supergene Mn-oxides may provide valuable information on the climatic, tectonic, and geomorphic conditions prevailing in the geological past. 4~Ar]39Ar laser incremental heating analysis of cryptomelane from the Baye manganese deposit, western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, SW China, was conducted to provide numerical constraints on the ages of supergene Mn enrichment and growth rates of Mn-oxide veins. In this study, two Mn-oxide veins of 3-6 cm thickness, termed as Vein A and B, respectively, were col- lected for 4~Ar/39Ar dating. Vein A is subhorizontal and present in fractures parallel to schistosity of the Proterozoic spessartine schists, whereas Vein B is filled in nearly vertical fractures penetrating the schistosity. A combination of optical microscopy, XRD, SEM, and EMP analyses demonstrate that mineral grains extracted from both veins consist of pure, well-crystallized cryptomlane, which has acicular crystal forms and contains 0.96%4.70% K2O. Fourteen cryptomelane subsamples extracted from different growth bands of Vein A yield well-defined plateau ages ranging from 1.35 ± 0.05 to 1.16 ± 0.04 Ma (2or), whereas seven subsamples obtained from Vein B have plateau ages ranging from 1.23 ±0.05 to 1.01 ± 0.04 Ma (20). The age results permit estimation for the growth rates of both veins at ca. 115-153 and 34-67 mm Ma-1, respectively. Distinct growth rates between Veins A and B are likely reflective of different fluid pressures during their formation governed by the orientation of the fractures hosting the veins. The growth rates calculated for both veins are 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than the val- ues (〈1-10 mm Ma-l) estimated for Mn-oxide nodules in supergene Mn deposits elsewhere. The high growth rates obtained for the Baye samples are consistent with direct precipitation of tetravalent Mn-oxides from weathering solution in open cavities or fractures, characterized by incremental growth of Mn-oxide bands from the margin to the center of the cavities or fractures. In contrast, Mn-oxide nodules with low growth rates from other deposits formed through self-oxidation and self-catalization, and grow outwards from the nuclei. In addition, prevalence of warm and humid climate and prolonged tectonic uplift in the Yunnan Plateau may have also partly contributed to the rapid growth of Mn-oxides in the Baye deposit.