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利用成本效益分析法,设置5年和10年淘汰情景,对中国淘汰短链氯化石蜡(SCCPs)的成本和效益进行分析。淘汰SCCPs的成本为181.1~308.8亿元,主要来自下游行业替代损失,5年淘汰情景的成本低于10年淘汰情景;中国淘汰SCCPs的收益为1462.6亿元,建议采用5年淘汰情景淘汰SCCPs。

背景与目的非小细胞肺癌（non-small cell lung cancer,NSCLC）靶向治疗越来越受到关注，吉非替尼和厄洛替尼均被推荐用于存在表皮生长因子受体酪氨酸激酶（epidermal growth factor receptor,EGFR）基因突变的晚期NSCLC的一线治疗。本研究旨在分析比较吉非替尼和厄洛替尼在晚期NSCLC的疗效和生存获益，以及治疗成本效益。方法回顾性分析广州医保内的66例EGFR突变型的NSCLC患者。观察疗效和记录不良反应，定期随访生存预后，并追踪治疗费用。结果总共66例可评估患者，中位无进展生存期（progression-free survival,PFS）为15．0个月。其中吉非替尼49例，厄洛替尼17例，PFS分别为17．5个月和13．0个月（P=0．459）。皮疹发生率吉非替尼组为62．3％（31／49），厄洛替尼组为94．1％（16／17）。成本-效益比率（cost-effectiveness ratio,CER）吉非替尼组为3，027元／月，厄洛替尼组为6，800元／月，增量成本-效益比率（incremental cost-effectiveness ratio,ICEA）厄洛替尼为吉非替尼的2．25倍。结论EGFR突变的晚期NSCLC患者治疗，吉非替尼和厄洛替尼有相似的疗效和生存获益，前者不良反应可能较为轻微。广州医保下，吉非替尼成本-效益比率稍优。

目的评估针对终末期肾病患者的两种治疗方式——活体亲属肾移植和血液透析的成本费用并进行比较,确定一些直接影响移植费用的医疗因素及其治疗方式的效价比问题。方法回顾性分析了中国西北地区372例常规血液透析的患者和122例活体亲属肾移植患者资料,随访至少满3年。所有的数据囊括了血液透析、肾脏移植、供者摘取手术、免疫抑制剂等的相关费用以及随访期间产生的费用。结果在前3年期间,血液透析患者和肾移植患者每年平均的花费分别为13 713/31 027美元、13 502/11 038美元和13 382/10 285美元。在肾移植患者中,是否服用地尔硫卓、是否发生急性排斥反应及感染并发症同移植费用具有显著相关性。结论从第2年开始,肾移植相比透析治疗具有更优的效价比,意味着更有效率,花费更少;而肾移植术后第1年中,没有服用地尔硫卓、发生急性排斥反应及感染并发症的患者会花费更多。

目標：針對精神病患出院後門診追蹤與轉介精神復健機構治療之成本效益進行探討。方法：採全民健保資料庫2000年百萬歸人檔資料，篩選2004年1月1日至2008年12月31日期間，首次於精神科出院之病患，將出院病患分為門診追蹤治療組與精神復健治療組，針對病患出院後2年期間之醫療資源使用，以卡方檢定、獨立樣本t檢定、二項對數迴歸分析及成本效益評估指標，進行成本效益分析。結果：本研究以健康保險支付者為觀點，採醫療直接成本，以申報點數加以計算，經傾向分數配對，兩組各取326人為研究樣本，結果發現，門診追蹤治療的成本效益優於精神復健治療。結論：精神復健治療與門診追蹤治療相較，雖未有明顯的成本效益之優勢，但由精神科住院醫療費用統計資料發現，門診追蹤治療組不論在平均醫療費用或總醫療費用部分，第二年均較第一年增加，因此，建議拉長追蹤年數，以瞭解兩組成本效益之趨勢變化。

Conservation efforts often focus on umbrella species whose distributions overlap with many other flora and fauna. However, because biodiversity is affected by different threats that are spatially variable, focusing only on the geographic range overlap of species may not be sufficient in allocating the necessary actions needed to efficiently abate threats. We developed a problem-based method for prioritizing conservation actions for umbrella species that maximizes the total number of flora and fauna benefiting from management while considering threats, actions, and costs. We tested our new method by assessing the performance of the Australian federal government’s umbrella prioritization list, which identifies 73 umbrella species as priorities for conservation attention. Our results show that the federal government priority list benefits only 6% of all Australia’s threatened terrestrial species. This could be increased to benefit nearly half (or 46%) of all threatened terrestrial species for the same budget of AU$550 million/year if more suitable umbrella species were chosen. This results in a 7-fold increase in management efficiency. We believe nations around the world can markedly improve the selection of prioritized umbrella species for conservation action with this transparent, quantitative, and objective prioritization approach. Los esfuerzos de conservación comúnmente se enfocan en las especies paraguas cuyas distribuciones se traslapan con la de muchos otros componentes de la flora y fauna. Sin embargo, como la biodiversidad se ve afectada por diferentes amenazas que presentan una variabilidad espacial, enfocarse solamente en el traslape de la extensión geográfica de las especies puede no ser suficiente para la asignación de las acciones necesarias para abatir eficientemente a las amenazas. Desarrollamos un método basado en problemas para la priorización de las acciones de conservación para las especies paraguas, el cual maximiza el total de flora y fauna beneficiado con el manejo a la vez que considera amenazas, acciones y costos. Probamos nuestro método al valorar el desempeño de la lista de priorización de especies paraguas del gobierno federal de Australia, la cual identifica a 73 especies paraguas como prioritarias para la atención de la conservación. Nuestros resultados muestran que la lista de prioridades del gobierno federal beneficia sólo al 6% de las especies terrestres amenazadas en Australia. Esto podría incrementarse para beneficiar a casi la mitad (o el 46%) de las especies terrestres amenazadas con el mismo presupuesto de AU$550 millones al año si se eligieran a especies paraguas más adecuadas. Esto resulta en un incremento siete veces mayor en la eficiencia del manejo. Creemos que en todo el mundo los países pueden mejorar de una manera muy marcada la selección de las especies paraguas para las acciones de conservación con una estrategia de priorización transparente, cuantitativa y objetiva. 保护工作常常聚焦于分布区与许多其他动植物重叠的伞护种。 然而，由于生物多样性受到各种空间上可 变威胁的影响，因此，仅关注物种地理范围的重叠不足以合理分配有效减缓威胁所需的必要行动。 我们开发了 一种具体问题具体分析的方法，来确定在考虑威胁、 行动和成本的情况下，可以使最多的动植物从管理中获益 的伞护种优先保护行动。 本研究通过评估澳大利亚联邦政府包含 73 个优先保护伞护种的保护名录，对这一新 方法进行了测试。结果表明，联邦政府的优先保护名录只惠及 6% 的澳大利亚濒危陆生物种。 如果选择更合适 的伞护种，同样利用每年 5.5 亿澳元的预算, 可以将这一比例提高到接近一半（46%)的濒危陆生物种，这也意味 着管理效率可以提升7 倍。 我们相信，利用这个透明、 定量和客观的优先保护排序方式，世界各国都可以显著 改善对优先保护的伞护种的选择。

The land fallow policy was adopted by central and local governments to encourage the abandonment of water-intensive crops, such as winter wheat, in groundwater over-exploited areas. At the same time, since the 1990s, many households in the North China Plain （NCP） have chosen to replace the winter wheat and summer maize double-cropping system with the spring maize single-cropping system. Therefore, it is crucial to identify target land parcels for winter wheat abandonment and to design reasonable and proper standards for ecological compensation prior to the implementation of the land fallow policy in the NCP. In this study, multi-level Iogit models were used with household survey data in order to detect determinants across land parcel, household and village levels on household cropping system decisions; the opportunity costs for winter wheat abandonment were also calculated using cost-benefit analysis. The results show that： （1） land quality and irrigation condition at parcel level are two essential elements influencing household cropping system decisions. Nearly 70% of the total area of poor land and more than 90% of the total area of unirrigated land has suffered winter wheat abandonment. Target land parcels for the land fallow policy should be those that are irrigated and of high quality. （2） There were no significant differences between net profits from spring maize and summer maize under similar farming conditions, and the opportunity cost for winter wheat abandonment should be equal to the net profit of winter wheat. （3） The primary purpose of the land fallow policy is to induce groundwater recovery and restoration as a preliminary stage. A higher level of 350 yuan/mu is recommended as subsidy for ecological compensation at this stage. Later, the primary purpose of the policy should be a transition to a balance between exploitation and supplementation of water resources, and a lower level of 280 yuan/mu is recommended as a subsidy at this stage.

Although Beijing has carried out municipal solid waste （MSW） source separation since 1996, it has largely been ineffective. In 2012, a ＂Green House＂ program was established as a new attempt for central sorting. In this study, the authors used material flow analysis （MFA） and cost benefit analysis （CBA） methods to investigate Green House＇s environment and economic feasibility. Results showed that the program did have significant environmental benefits on waste reduction, which reduced the amount of waste by 34%. If the Green House program is implemented in a residential community with wet waste ratio of 66%, the proportion of waste reduction can reach 37%. However, the Green House is now running with a monthly loss of 1982 CNY. This is mainly because most of its benefits come from waste reduction （i.e., 5878 CNY per month）, which does not turn a monetary benefit, but is instead distributed to the whole of society as positive environmental externalities. Lack of government involvement, small program scale, and technical/managerial deficiency are three main barriers of the Green House. We, thus, make three recommendations： involve government authority and financial support, expand the program scale to separate 91.4 tons of waste every month, and use more professional equipment/technologies. If the Green House program can successfully adopt these suggestions, 33.8 tons of waste can be reduced monthly, and it would be able to flip the loss into a profit worth 35034 CNY.

This paper attempts to investigate comprehensively, a ＂U＂-shaped relationship between income inequality and crime rates in China after building a cost-benefit analysis model, by using time series data from 1981-2012 and panel data from 1999-2012. The empirical results show that： firstly, in the time series model, the U-shaped relationships between inequality and the total crime rate and rates of various crimes except from smuggling, are very significant in the period of 1981-2012, secondly, the panel threshold models show that inequality and crime tend to be correlated positively with each other during 1999-2012, because the inequality level during this period is much higher than the turning points of inequality estimated in the time series models, although three regions with different development levels are located in different parts of a U-shaped curve between inequality and crime.

Thread-level speculation becomes more attractive for the exploitation of thread-level parallelism from irregular sequential applications. But it is common for speculative threads to fail to reach the expected parallel performance. The reason is that the performance of speculative threads is extremely complicated by the fact that it not only suffers from the imprecision of compiler-directed performance estimation due to ambiguous control and data dependences, but also depends on the underlying hardware configuration and program behaviors. Thus, this paper proposes a statically greedy and dynamically adaptive approach for loop-level speculation to dynamically determine the best loop level at runtime. It relies on the compiler to select and optimize all loop candidates greedily, which are then proceeded on the cost-benefit analysis of different loop nesting levels for the determination of the order of loop speculation. Under the runtime loop execution prediction, we dynamically schedule and update the order of loop speculation, and ensure the best loop level to be always parallelized. Two different policies are also examined to maximize overall performance. Compared with traditional static loop selection techniques, our approach （：an achieve comparable or better performance.

Crop residues are an important biomass, and are significant in the sustainable development of China. This paper uses the Grey-Markov modeling approach, the cost-benefit analysis method, and the constraint optimization method to establish the potential of crop residue recycling in China (CRRC) using a bottom-up analysis. Taking 2010 as the baseline year, the CRRC model is used to determine the quantity trends of crop residue resources, simulating the recycling potential and selecting key crop residue recycling technologies for operation between 2010 and 2030. The results illustrate that the total residue output from different crops will gradually increase to 1062 million tons in 2030. The proportion of crop residue for field burning is expected to decrease as a result of guidance and support from the government. Market mechanisms are also improving the development of the crop residue recycling industry. The economic benefit of crop residue recycling is expected to be worth 132 billion CNY in 2030 according to technology structure options. Key crop residue recycling technologies preferred such as liquefaction, amination, silo, co-firing straw power and composting will account for more than 85% of the total benefits.