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1 result(s) for "预报不确定性"
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顾及不确定性影响的变形概率预报法
顾及不确定性影响的变形概率预报法
by 魏冠军 党亚民 章传银 杨维芳 in Algorithms , Bayesian analysis , Deformation
2017
针对变形预报的不确定性,以MCMC算法和贝叶斯预测理论为基础,提出了变形概率预报方法,该方法以概率分布的形式描述变形预报的不确定性,通过概率规则实现预报的递推过程。利用宁杭高速路基沉降数据进行数值计算,定量分析了预报值及其可靠性区间等信息,并与最小二乘估计、免疫算法的预报结果进行比较,结果表明了该方法的有效性和可行性。
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