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Exchange Rate Predictability
The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables? It is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (the Meese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question: \"Are exchange rates predictable?\" is, \"It depends\"—on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, and forecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift.
Journal Article
ابن لادن : الحقيقة الممنوعة
ما من أحد في البلدان الغنية يمكن أن يتهرب من قراءة ناقدة لسنوات السياسة الخارجية الخمسين الماضية، لا سيما السياسة النفطية. فمعها يرتكز نمو الولايات المتحدة الأميركية الاقتصادي على تحالفات مع ديكتاتوريات نفطية ويشجع هذه الأخيرة على تعزيز المعتقدات الأكثر تخلفاً. عاجلاً أم آجلاً سيفتح في الولايات المتحدة ملف الإرهابيين وشركائهم، وربما الدول التي تستقبلهم وتدعمهم موضوعياً. لكن يبقى ملف أولئك الذين يلهمونهم ويمولونهم، فعلاً أو سهواً أو مصلحة. فهل يا ترى سينكشف هذا الملف عن حقيقة ابن لادن التي كانت في عداد المحظورات التي تحرم الولايات الكشف عنها. هو هذا ما يحاول تحليله هذا الكتاب.
BOOK
Osama bin Laden
9/11 almost instantaneously remade American politics and foreign policy. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Patriot Act, water boarding, and Guantanamo are examples of its profound and far-reaching effects. Most biographies of Osama bin Laden depict him as an historical figure, the mastermind behind 9/11, but no longer relevant to the world it created. These accounts, it is argued here, have contributed to a widespread and dangerous denial of his continuing significance and power as al-Qaeda chief. This book provides a corrective portrait of bin Laden, showing him to be a figure of remarkable leadership skills, strategic genius, and considerable rhetorical abilities. Written by first head of the Central Intelligence Agency’s bin Laden Unit, the book draws from a wealth of information about bin Laden and his evolution from peaceful Saudi dissident to America’s Most Wanted. Shedding light on his development as a theologian, media manipulator, and paramilitary commander, the book makes use of all the speeches and interviews bin Laden has given as well as lengthy interviews, testimony, and previously untranslated documents written by those who grew up with bin Laden in Saudi Arabia, served as his bodyguards and drivers, and fought alongside him against the Soviet Union.
eBook
في قلب بن لادن : الرجل والعائلة
كتاب مهم يحكي واقع تجربة ثرية ومثيرة لحياة الشريف سعد صاحب هذه المذكرات، مذكرات جاءت على شكل حوارسردها د. سعد الشريف الذي سار مع \"أسامة بن لادن\" جنبا جنب على دروب الجهاد وإلى جانب الدكتور \"سعد الشريف\" الأخوية والجهادية مع \"بن لادن\" ففيما كان ً إمبراطورية \"بن لادن\" الشهيرة بكفاءتها في البناء والعمران جمعت الإثنين أيضا أسامة أحد ملاكها الكبار والمؤثرين فيها قبل الجهاد الأفغاني، حاز فيها سعد، صاحب هذه المذكرات، أهم دور وهو الإشراف على تنفيذ أعمالها في \"الحرمين الشريفين\" وما خفي أعظم وأعظم يجده القارئ في صفحات هذا الكتاب.
BOOK
The Bin Laden Papers
An inside look at al-Qaeda from 9/11 to the death of its
founder-told through the words of Bin Laden and his closest
circle Usama Bin Laden's greatest fear was not capture or
death, but the exposure of al-Qaeda's secrets. At great risk to
themselves and the entire mission, the U.S. Special Operations
Forces, who carried out the Abbottabad raid that killed Bin Laden,
took an additional eighteen minutes to collect Bin Laden's hard
drives and thereby expose al-Qaeda's secrets. In this
ground-breaking book, Nelly Lahoud dives into Bin Laden's files and
meticulously distills the nearly 6,000 pages of Arabic private
communications. For the first time, al-Qaeda's closely guarded
secrets are laid bare, shattering misconceptions and revealing how
and what Bin Laden communicated with his associates, his plans for
future attacks, and al-Qaeda's hostility toward countries such as
Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan. Lahoud presents firsthand
accounts of al-Qaeda from 9/11 until the elimination of Bin Laden,
as told through his own words and those of his family and closest
associates.
eBook
أسامة : السبيل إلى الإرهاب
محور السؤال في رواية جوناثان راندل الأخاذة حول دور أسامة بن لادن في اندلاع نار الإرهاب في الشرق الأوسط والعالم وهو كيف يتسنى لمليونير سعودي فرد في أواسط عمره أن يهدد القوة العظمى الوحيدة في العالم؟ ويستعرض المؤلف نشاط أسامة الإرهابي قبل الحادي عشر من أيلول 2001 ويرى في شخصيته نموذجا جديدا غير مسبوق في تاريخ الإرهاب المعاصر \"رجل أعمال مستقل ذو ثروة\"، ينتشر أتباعه في أرجاء العالم، مستنفرين لابتكار العمليات الإرهابية.
BOOK
Covering Bin Laden
Starting in 2001, much of the world media used the image of Osama
bin Laden as a shorthand for terrorism. Bin Laden himself
considered media manipulation on a par with military, political,
and ideological tools, and intentionally used interviews, taped
speeches, and distributed statements to further al-Qaida's ends. In
Covering Bin Laden , editors Susan Jeffords and Fahed Yahya
Al-Sumait collect perspectives from global scholars exploring a
startling premise: that media depictions of Bin Laden not only
diverge but often contradict each other, depending on the media
provider and format, the place in which the depiction is presented,
and the viewer's political and cultural background. The
contributors analyze the representations of the many Bin Ladens,
ranging from Al Jazeera broadcasts to video games. They examine the
media's dominant role in shaping our understanding of terrorists
and why/how they should be feared, and they engage with the ways
the mosaic of Bin Laden images and narratives have influenced
policies and actions around the world. Contributors include Fahed
Al-Sumait, Saranaz Barforoush, Aditi Bhatia, Purnima Bose, Ryan
Croken, Simon Ferrari, Andrew Hill, Richard Jackson, Susan
Jeffords, Joanna Margueritte-Giecewicz, Noha Mellor, Susan Moeller,
Brigitte Nacos, Courtney C. Radsch, and Alexander Spencer.
eBook
I am Gitmo
A Muslim schoolteacher is taken to a CIA black site and then Guantanamo Bay Cuba, where he is interrogated and tortured, despite professing his innocence.
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