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"1970-2007"
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HOW DO RIGHT-TO-CARRY LAWS AFFECT CRIME RATES? COPING WITH AMBIGUITY USING BOUNDED-VARIATION ASSUMPTIONS
Despite dozens of studies, research on crime has struggled to reach consensus about the impact of right-to-carry (RTC) gun laws. With this in mind, we formalize and apply a class of bounded-variation assumptions that flexibly restrict the degree to which outcomes may vary across time and space. Using these assumptions, we present empirical analysis of the effect of RTC laws on violent and property crimes in Virginia, Maryland, and Illinois. Imposing specific assumptions that we believe worthy of consideration, we find that RTC laws increase some crimes, decrease other crimes, and have effects that vary over time for others.
Journal Article
CATASTROPHIC NATURAL DISASTERS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
We examine the average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. For each country affected by a large disaster, we compute the counterfactual by constructing synthetic controls. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output in both the short and the long runs. However, we also show that this results from two events where radical political revolutions followed the disasters. Once we control for these political changes, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth.
Journal Article
Is Automation Labor Share–Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share
Many technological innovations replace workers with machines. But this capital–labor substitution need not reduce aggregate labor demand, because it simultaneously induces four countervailing responses: own-industry output effects; cross-industry input–output effects; between-industry shifts; and final demand effects. We quantify these channels using four decades of harmonized cross-country and industry data, whereby we measure automation as industry-level movements in total factor productivity that are common across countries. We find that automation displaces employment and reduces labor’s share of value added in the industries where it originates (a direct effect). In the case of employment, these own-industry losses are reversed by indirect gains in customer industries and induced increases in aggregate demand. By contrast, own-industry labor share losses are not recouped elsewhere. Our framework can account for a substantial fraction of the reallocation of employment across industries and the aggregate fall in the labor share over the last three decades. It does not, however, explain why the labor share fell more rapidly during the 2000s.
Journal Article
Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies
How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a government that displays 'fiscal fatigue', whereby its ability to increase primary balances cannot keep pace with rising debt. As a result, the government faces an endogenous debt limit beyond which debt cannot be rolled over. Using data for 23 advanced economies over the period 1970—2007, we find evidence of a fiscal reaction function with these features, and use it to compute 'fiscal space', defined as the difference between current debt ratios and the estimated debt limits.
Journal Article
Effect of FDI and Time on Catching Up: New Insights from a Conditional Nonparametric Frontier Analysis
We use an appropriate nonparametric two-step approach on conditional efficiencies to investigate how foreign direct investment (FDI) and time affect the process of catching up. By using a dataset of 44 countries over 1970–2007, we explore the channels under which FDI fosters productivity by disentangling the impact of this factor on the production process and its components: impact on the attainable production set (input–output space) and the impact on the distribution of efficiencies. We extend existing methodological tools—conditional nonparametric efficiency measures—to examine these interrelationships. We emphasize the usefulness of smoothing over time to better analyze the potential dynamic influence of FDI on efficiency. We find that both FDI and time play an important role as influencing efficiency distribution and affecting, to a smaller extend, the production set. This effect of FDI does not seem to vary much over time. By the second-stage nonparametric regression of the conditional efficiencies over FDI and time we identify clearly the effect of time and FDI on conditional efficiency and we determine idiosyncratic efficiency, which represents the ‘Solow residual’, measured by looking to the unexplained part of the conditional efficiencies.
Journal Article
Journalists and the Stock Market
We use exogenous scheduling of Wall Street Journal columnists to identify a causal relation between financial reporting and stock market performance. To measure the media's unconditional effect, we add columnist fixed effects to a daily regression of excess Dow Jones Industrial Average returns. Relative to standard control variables, these fixed effects increase the R² by about 35%, indicating each columnist's average persistent \"bullishness\" or \"bearishness.\" To measure the media's conditional effect, we interact columnist fixed effects with lagged returns. This increases explanatory power by yet another one-third, and identifies amplification or attenuation of prevailing sentiment as a tool used by financial journalists.
Journal Article
Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending
We examine the evidence on episodes of large stances in fiscal policy, in cases of both fiscal stimuli and fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from 1970 to 2007. Fiscal stimuli based on tax cuts are more likely to increase growth than those based on spending increases. As for fiscal adjustments, those based on spending cuts and no tax increases are more likely to reduce deficits and debt over GDP ratios than those based on tax increases. In addition, adjustments on the spending side rather than on the tax side are less likely to create recessions. We confirm these results with simple regression analysis.
Journal Article
Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth
This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system generalized methods of moments (GMM) approach as well as the dynamic common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG) methodology for estimation to account for cross-country heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and feedback effects. Using both annual data for 1970–2007 and 5-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while CToT growth enhances real output per capita, CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical and human capital. Productivity, however, is not affected by either the growth or the volatility of CToT. Our results also indicate that the negative growth effects of CToT volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the ‘resource curse’ paradox.
Journal Article
Trends in Life Expectancy by Income and the Role of Specific Causes of Death
This study explores how life expectancy at age 35 has evolved across the income distribution in Sweden over time. We examine individual income for men 1970–2007 and family income for both men and women 1980–2007. During this period, income inequality increased in most western countries, but especially so in Sweden. Drawing on a large sample of the Swedish population, our results show that the gap in life expectancy between the richest and poorest fifths of the income distribution also increased. This was the case both for individual and family income. The increase was larger for men than for women, but the only group with stagnant life expectancy at age 35 was women in the lowest income quintile group. Between 1986 and 2007, the difference between the lowest and highest family income quintiles increased by about one year for women and by almost two years for men. The causes of death that most significantly contributed to the increased disparities among women were circulatory and respiratory diseases. For men, circulatory disease mortality alone caused most of the increased disparities.
Journal Article