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"1976-2009"
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The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment
This paper links the sharp drop in US manufacturing employment after 2000 to a change in US trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries more exposed to the change experience greater employment loss, increased imports from China, and higher entry by US importers and foreign-owned Chinese exporters. At the plant level, shifts toward less labor-intensive production and exposure to the policy via input-output linkages also contribute to the decline in employment. Results are robust to other potential explanations of employment loss, and there is no similar reaction in the European Union, where policy did not change.
Journal Article
Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?
We study the properties of the carry trade, a currency speculation strategy in which an investor borrows low-interest-rate currencies and lends high-interest-rate currencies. This strategy generates payoffs that are on average large and uncorrelated with traditional risk factors. We argue that these payoffs reflect a peso problem. The underlying peso event features high values of the stochastic discount factor rather than very large negative payoffs.
Journal Article
Leaving boys behind
Using data from the \"Monitoring the Future\" surveys, this paper shows that from the 1980s to the 2000s, the mode of girls' high school GPA distribution has shifted from \"B\" to \"A,\" essentially \"leaving boys behind\" as the mode of boys' GPA distribution stayed at \"B.\" In a reweighted Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of achievement at each GPA level, we find that changes to gender differences in post-secondary expectations, in particular expectations for attending graduate or professional school, are the most important factors accounting for this trend after controlling for school ability and they occur as early as the eighth grade.
Journal Article
Why is the Teen Birth Rate in the United States So High and Why Does It Matter?
Why is the rate of teen childbearing is so unusually high in the United States as a whole, and in some U.S. states in particular? U.S. teens are two and a half times as likely to give birth as compared to teens in Canada, around four times as likely as teens in Germany or Norway, and almost ten times as likely as teens in Switzerland. A teenage girl in Mississippi is four times more likely to give birth than a teenage girl in New Hampshire—and 15 times more likely to give birth as a teen compared to a teenage girl in Switzerland. We examine teen birth rates alongside pregnancy, abortion, and “shotgun” marriage rates as well as the antecedent behaviors of sexual activity and contraceptive use. We demonstrate that variation in income inequality across U.S. states and developed countries can explain a sizable share of the geographic variation in teen childbearing. Our reading of the totality of evidence leads us to conclude that being on a low economic trajectory in life leads many teenage girls to have children while they are young and unmarried. Teen childbearing is explained by the low economic trajectory but is not an additional cause of later difficulties in life. Surprisingly, teen birth itself does not appear to have much direct economic consequence. Our view is that teen childbearing is so high in the United States because of underlying social and economic problems. It reflects a decision among a set of girls to “drop-out” of the economic mainstream; they choose nonmarital motherhood at a young age instead of investing in their own economic progress because they feel they have little chance of advancement.
Journal Article
Overvalued Equity and Financing Decisions
We test whether and how equity overvaluation affects corporate financing decisions using an ex ante misvaluation measure that filters firm scale and growth prospects from market price. We find that equity issuance and total financing increase with equity overvaluation, but only among overvalued stocks, and that equity issuance is more sensitive than debt issuance to misvaluation. Consistent with managers catering to maintain overvaluation and with investment-scale economy effects, the sensitivity of equity issuance and total financing to misvaluation is stronger among firms with potential growth opportunities (low book-to-market, high R&D, or small size) and high share turnover.
Journal Article
Inflexible Wages and Prices? Evidence in the Current Recession
The 2008/9 recession period brought the most massive and quickest response of fiscal and monetary policy in modern economic history. At the same time, small businesses (that produce half of private GDP) exhibited the most rapid adjustments in wages, prices, and inventories recorded in the past 35 years of data collected by the National Federation of Independent Business. The notion of \"sticky\" wages and prices plays a key role in arguments favoring government intervention to rebalance supply and demand for labor and output. The faster wages and prices (and therefore employment and output) adjust to a \"shock\" to the economy, the less the need for government intervention.
Journal Article
Adler vs. Strasberg : the great controversy in American acting
This program examines the techniques and contributions of Lee Strasberg and Stella Alder to modern acting, explains how each devised his or her technique, considers the collaboration among and ultimate split between the two, and shows how contemporary actors utilize the techniques in character creation and performance. It explores the influence of Constantin Stanislavsky and his revolutionary acting method on Strasberg and Adler, discusses Strasberg's application of his interpretation of the technique, looks at the discontent with Strasberg's interpretation that drove Adler to study directly with Stanislavsky, and shows how that direct study encouraged her to develop her own technique. The program examines the differences in the acting approaches of Strasberg and Adler and emphasizes the many similarities between their theories and techniques. It includes footage of Joel Asher leading a young actress through exercises based on each technique and offers commentary from Lorrie Hull, Bill Smithers, Ron Burrus, Mel Shapiro, and Richard Brestoff.
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