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The Causal Interpretation of Two-Stage Least Squares with Multiple Instrumental Variables
Empirical researchers often combine multiple instrumental variables (IVs) for a single treatment using two-stage least squares (2SLS). When treatment effects are heterogeneous, a common justification for including multiple IVs is that the 2SLS estimand can be given a causal interpretation as a positively weighted average of local average treatment effects (LATEs). This justification requires the well-known monotonicity condition. However, we show that with more than one instrument, this condition can only be satisfied if choice behavior is effectively homogeneous. Based on this finding, we consider the use of multiple IVs under a weaker, partial monotonicity condition. We characterize empirically verifiable sufficient and necessary conditions for the 2SLS estimand to be a positively weighted average of LATEs under partial monotonicity. We apply these results to an empirical analysis of the returns to college with multiple instruments. We show that the standard monotonicity condition is at odds with the data. Nevertheless, our empirical checks reveal that the 2SLS estimate retains a causal interpretation as a positively weighted average of the effects of college attendance among complier groups.
Journal Article
The Gulf War
President George H. W. Bush assumed office at a critical
juncture, as the Cold War came to an end and the world shifted to a
new era of international relations. In The Gulf War ,
Spencer Bakich argues that Bush fashioned a grand strategy to bring
about a New World Order designed to transform international
politics by focusing on great power cooperation through the United
Nations. The Persian Gulf War became the chance for Bush to put his
strategy into action. This latest volume in the Landmark
Presidential Decision series offers a fresh and concise look at
President Bush's strategic decision making and his choice to wage
war against Iraq.
Bakich, an expert in wartime strategy, traces the ideas and
actions of Bush's new world order strategy between 1989 and 1991,
which had a profound impact on the diplomacy of Desert Shield and
the warfighting of Desert Storm. Bush's strategic beliefs contained
core elements of Wilsonian internationalism-specifically its goals
of promoting democracy, conducting multilateral diplomacy through
international institutions, and transforming the United Nations
into the collective security institution that its founders
envisioned. His \"New World Order\" was not mere political
sloganeering intended to bolster support for the Persian Gulf War
among a skeptical American public. Rather, Bush intended the Gulf
War to exercise and firmly establish the UN's collective security
function in the post-Cold War era.
In this bold new interpretation of George H. W. Bush's foreign
policy, Bakich challenges conventional wisdom, arguing that Bush's
New World Order was carefully defined and had a comprehensive
logic. He shows how Bush's strategic beliefs oriented American
statecraft in peace and war. Bush's grand strategy was remarkably
coherent, powerfully affecting how his administration decided to go
to war to evict Iraq from Kuwait, how it waged war in the Persian
Gulf, and ultimately the reasons why the fighting was terminated
before the coalition's war aims were completely achieved. In the
end, the Gulf War's outcome exposed faulty assumptions about the
international system that underpinned the strategy, weakening the
president's fidelity to his own approach. Ultimately, the Gulf War
did usher in a New World Order, but not the one Bush had
envisioned.
eBook
The leadership of George Bush : an insider's view of the forty-first president
Author Roman Popadiuk served in the Bush White House from 1989 to 1992 as deputy assistant to the president and deputy press secretary for foreign affairs. In that capacity, he was closely involved with many of the day-to-day decisions of the administration during a momentous period that saw the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the rise of a new global coalition, the curbing of a dictator’s expansionist policies in the Middle East, and shifting domestic, economic, and political currents.
In this important volume, Popadiuk examines the ways in which the personal leadership style of George Bush influenced the formation and execution of policy. Popadiuk composes a mosaic of events, quotations, and observations that yield a broad view of the ways in which a president’s personal qualities and philosophies impinge upon leadership options.
General readers and public service professionals will find The Leadership of George Bush informative and enlightening, and scholars of the presidency and public policy will discover new avenues for research on both the Bush administration and executive leadership and policy.
eBook
Hillary Clinton in the News
The charge of inauthenticity has trailed Hillary Clinton from the moment she entered the national spotlight and stood in front of television cameras. Hillary Clinton in the News: Gender and Authenticity in American Politics shows how the U.S. news media created their own news frames of Clinton's political authenticity and image-making, from her participation in Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign through her own 2008 presidential bid. Using theories of nationalism, feminism, and authenticity, Parry-Giles tracks the evolving ways the major networks and cable news programs framed Clinton's image as she assumed roles ranging from surrogate campaigner, legislative advocate, and financial investor to international emissary, scorned wife, and political candidate. This study magnifies how the coverage that preceded Clinton's entry into electoral politics was grounded in her earliest presence in the national spotlight, and in long-standing nationalistic beliefs about the boundaries of authentic womanhood and first lady comportment. Once Clinton dared to cross those gender boundaries and vie for office in her own right, the news exuded a rhetoric of sexual violence. These portrayals served as a warning to other women who dared to enter the political arena and violate the protocols of authentic womanhood.
eBook
When the clock broke : con men, conspiracists, and how America cracked up in the early 1990s
\"A history of the right-wing political figures who defined the early 1990s\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Making the Unipolar Moment
In the late 1970s, the United States often seemed to be a
superpower in decline. Battered by crises and setbacks around the
globe, its post-World War II international leadership appeared to
be draining steadily away. Yet just over a decade later, by the
early 1990s, America's global primacy had been reasserted in
dramatic fashion. The Cold War had ended with Washington and its
allies triumphant; democracy and free markets were spreading like
never before. The United States was now enjoying its \"unipolar
moment\"-an era in which Washington faced no near-term rivals for
global power and influence, and one in which the defining feature
of international politics was American dominance. How did this
remarkable turnaround occur, and what role did U.S. foreign policy
play in causing it? In this important book, Hal Brands uses
recently declassified archival materials to tell the story of
American resurgence.
Brands weaves together the key threads of global change and U.S.
policy from the late 1970s through the early 1990s, examining the
Cold War struggle with Moscow, the rise of a more integrated and
globalized world economy, the rapid advance of human rights and
democracy, and the emergence of new global challenges like Islamic
extremism and international terrorism. Brands reveals how deep
structural changes in the international system interacted with
strategies pursued by Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W.
Bush to usher in an era of reinvigorated and in many ways
unprecedented American primacy. Making the Unipolar Moment
provides an indispensable account of how the post-Cold War order
that we still inhabit came to be.
eBook