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"1990-2005"
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The Geography of Development
We develop a dynamic spatial growth theory with realistic geography. We characterize the model and its balanced-growth path and propose a methodology to analyze equilibria with different levels of migration frictions. Different migration scenarios change local market size, innovation incentives, and the evolution of technology. We bring the model to the data for the whole world economy at a 1° × 1° geographic resolution. We then use the model to quantify the gains from relaxing migration restrictions. Our results indicate that fully liberalizing migration would increase welfare about threefold and would significantly affect the evolution of particular regions of the world.
Journal Article
Housing Collateral and Entrepreneurship
We show that collateral constraints restrict firm entry and postentry growth, using French administrative data and cross-sectional variation in local house-price appreciation as shocks to collateral values. We control for local demand shocks by comparing treated homeowners to controls in the same region that do not experience collateral shocks: renters and homeowners with an outstanding mortgage, who (in France) cannot take out a second mortgage. In both comparisons, an increase in collateral value leads to a higher probability of becoming an entrepreneur. Conditional on entry, treated entrepreneurs use more debt, start larger firms, and remain larger in the long run.
Journal Article
R&D NETWORKS
We analyze a model of R&D alliance networks where firms are engaged in R&D collaborations that lower their production costs while competing on the product market. We provide a complete characterization of the Nash equilibrium and determine the optimal R&D subsidy program that maximizes total welfare.We then structurally estimate this model using a unique panel of R&D collaborations and annual company reports. We use our estimates to study the impact of targeted versus nondiscriminatory R&D subsidy policies and empirically rank firms according to the welfaremaximizing subsidies they should receive.
Journal Article
How New Market Categories Emerge: Temporal Dynamics of Legitimacy, Identity, and Entrepreneurship in Satellite Radio, 1990-2005
We theorize how new market categories emerge and are legitimated through a confluence of factors internal to the category (entrepreneurial ventures) and external to the category (interested audiences). Using qualitative and quantitative analyses and multiple data sources overtime, we study the evolution of the U.S. satellite radio market over its initial sixteen years. We offer convergent evidence to show that the legitimation of a new market category precipitates shifts in the focus of market actors' attention from the category as a whole to the differentiation of firms within. This effect was demonstrated for entrepreneurial identity claims, linguistic frames, and announcements of interorganizational affiliations and endorsements, as well as in the focal attention of media and financial audiences. We synthesize these findings to offer an integrated theoretical framework on new market category emergence and legitimation.
Journal Article
IMPORT COMPETITION AND QUALITY UPGRADING
The production of high-quality goods is often viewed as a precondition for export success and economic development. We provide the first evidence that countries' import tariffs affect the rate at which they upgrade product quality. Our analysis uses highly disaggregated data covering exports from 56 countries across 10,000 products to the United States using a novel approach to measure quality. As predicted by distance-to-the-frontier models, we find that lower tariffs are associated with quality upgrading for products close to the world quality frontier, whereas lower tariffs discourage quality upgrading for products distant from the frontier.
Journal Article
Adopting a Label: Heterogeneity in the Economic Consequences Around IAS/IFRS Adoptions
This study examines liquidity and cost of capital effects around voluntary and mandatory IAS/IFRS adoptions. In contrast to prior work, we focus on the firm-level heterogeneity in the economic consequences, recognizing that firms have considerable discretion in how they implement the new standards. Some firms may make very few changes and adopt IAS/IFRS more in name, while for others the change in standards could be part of a strategy to increase their commitment to transparency. To test these predictions, we classify firms into \"label\" and \"serious\" adopters using firm-level changes in reporting incentives, actual reporting behavior, and the external reporting environment around the switch to IAS/IFRS. We analyze whether capital-market effects are different across \"serious\" and \"label\" firms. While on average liquidity and cost of capital often do not change around voluntary IAS/IFRS adoptions, we find considerable heterogeneity: \"Serious\" adoptions are associated with an increase in liquidity and a decline in cost of capital, whereas \"label\" adoptions are not. We obtain similar results when classifying firms around mandatory IFRS adoption. Our findings imply that we have to exercise caution when interpreting capital-market effects around IAS/IFRS adoption as they also reflect changes in reporting incentives or in firms' broader reporting strategies, and not just the standards.
Journal Article
Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data
How large are optimal tariffs? What tariffs would prevail in a world-wide trade war? How costly would a breakdown of international trade policy cooperation be? And what is the scope for future multilateral trade negotiations? I address these and other questions using a unified framework which nests traditional, new trade, and political economy motives for protection. I find that optimal tariffs average 62 percent, world trade war tariffs average 63 percent, the government welfare losses from a breakdown of international trade policy cooperation average 2.9 percent, and the possible government welfare gains from future multilateral trade negotiations average 0.5 percent.
Journal Article
Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia
Motivated by the implications from a stylized self-contained general equilibrium model incorporating the effects of time-varying economic uncertainty, we show that the difference between implied and realized variation, or the variance risk premium, is able to explain a nontrivial fraction of the time-series variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns, with high (low) premia predicting high (low) future returns. Our empirical results depend crucially on the use of \"model-free,\" as opposed to Black-Scholes, options implied volatilities, along with accurate realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday as opposed to daily data. The magnitude of the predictability is particularly strong at the intermediate quarterly return horizon, where it dominates that afforded by other popular predictor variables, such as the P/E ratio, the default spread, and the consumption-wealthratio.
Journal Article