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"1991-2015"
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أحمد الجلبي : الرجل الذي دفع أمريكا إلى الحرب
يجد القراء كما هائلا من المعلومات التي يصعب تقبلها وسيجدون أنفسهم يصرون على أسنانهم في كثير من الأحيان، سيجعلهم عداء المؤلف الواضح للجلبي يهزون رؤوسهم عندما يذكرهم بأن أهم الصحف والإعلاميين كانوا قد تقبلوا مزاعمه على أنها حقائق. يظهر كتاب روستون كيف أصبحت الولايات المتحدة-بشكل فاضح-البلد الذي حقق فيه الجلبي إلى حد بعيد، أعظم نجاحاته. لطالما نودي أحمد الجلبي من قبل المقربين بـ «الدكتور»، عطفا على شهادة الدكتوراه التي يحملها في علوم الرياضيات، بينما يلقبه بعض العاملين معه بـ «الأخ الأكبر»، في حين أطلقت عليه وكالة المخابرات المركزية اسما حركيا هو «بولسار 1»، كما كشفت بعض المصادر الاستخبارية، وأيا كانت التسمية التي تطلق عليه، فإن أحمد عبد الهادي الجلبي الداهية الذي ينتمي إلى القومية العربية في العراق والذي يعود أصله إلى عائلة من المصرفيين الشيعة، هو رجل استطاع تغيير العالم بكل ما تحمله تلك الكلمة من معنى، فقد قامت الولايات المتحدة برعايته ونقله هو ورجاله إلى العراق، بل والإطاحة بصدام حسين من أجله كما كان يمكنه أن يتباهى، ومع أن هناك العديد من المنتقدين لحرب العراق ومن المدافعين الشرسين عنها، إلا أن المطلعين من الجانبين يتفقون على هذا الأمر، لولا الجلبي لما كانت هناك حرب بالأساس.
BOOK
Decomposing and Predicting China's GDP Growth: Past, Present, and Future
In the past three decades, China has experienced impressive economic development as well as dramatic demographic transition. We conduct a yearly decomposition on the growth rate of real GDP and GDP per capita during the period 1991–2015 by quantifying the contributions of four factors, namely, population size, population age structure, labor force participation, and labor productivity. We find that population size, age structure, and labor force participation have played different roles at different stages of development, while labor productivity has made the largest contribution throughout the period. Our scenario analyses of China's economic growth in the future show that with the population aging and the labor force shrinking, maintaining an annual growth rate of 7 percent in GDP over the period 2015–2045, or reproducing another eightfold increase in GDP per capita over the next 25 years, will be impossible, because the requirement for the improvement of labor productivity is too high.
Journal Article
La Casa de las Américas hoy (memoria personal asistida)
Estas páginas proponen un acercamiento pormenorizado a la situación actual de la Casa de las Américas, a partir de las múltiples respuestas halladas por sus distintos núcleos de trabajo a los desafíos impuestos, fundamentalmente, por los recortes debidos a la crisis de los 90, así como un breve pronóstico de su mañana. Ces pages proposent une approche détaillée de la situation actuelle de la Casa de las Américas, à partir des multiples réponses que ses diverses instances ont trouvées aux défis et aux restrictions imposés par la crise des années 1990 ; elles présentent également un bref pronostic sur son avenir. These pages propose a detailed survey of the present situation of Casa de las Américas, from the many answers found by its different work cores on imposed challenges, fundamentally because of cutbacks in funds due to the 90’s crisis, as well as a brief forecast of its future.
Journal Article
Public Budgetary Rules and GDP Growth
We study the long-term effects of budgetary rules on GDP growth rate and analyse the determinants of the short-term GDP growth dynamics. For both a sample of 19 OECD and a sub-sample of 12 European countries, we show that, in the long run, improvements in the cyclically adjusted budget balance, as well as increases in the tax burden, have negative effects on GDP growth. The highest effect of fiscal policy on GDP growth would be obtained if the structural deficits were used to increase the market size by reducing the tax burden. In line with Barro (1990), a deficit-financed reduction of tax burden has a stronger effect for European than for OECD countries, because in Europe the government size with respect to market size is too large. Therefore, if GDP growth is a dominant policy objective, in Europe specific actions should redress the 2012 Treaty toward a reduction of the tax burden.
Journal Article
Pluralism by default : weak autocrats and the rise of competitive politics
An audacious new explanation for the emergence of political pluralism in weak states.
Pluralism by Default explores sources of political contestation in the former Soviet Union and beyond. Lucan Way proposes that pluralism in \"new democracies\" is often grounded less in democratic leadership or emerging civil society and more in the failure of authoritarianism. Dynamic competition frequently emerges because autocrats lack the state capacity to steal elections, impose censorship, or repress opposition. In fact, the same institutional failures that facilitate political competition may also thwart the development of stable democracy.
eBook
China's strategic partnerships in Latin America
This study examines how China has developed a diplomatic mechanism to expand its international influence through the establishment of strategic partnerships. These strategic partnerships have sparked a debate among analysts. On the one hand, some optimistic studies applaud the win-win objective of China’s foreign policy and portray China as a successful model for developing countries. On the other hand, more skeptical studies depict China as a rising imperial power that represents a competitive threat to Latin America. This book focuses on China’s strategic partnerships with Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela within the oil sector. It stresses how Chinese strategic partnerships with each of these four countries have diverged across cases over time (1991–2015). The study finds that the strategic partnerships are asymmetrical in which China benefits more than four Latin American countries in a variety of aspects. I suggest Latin American countries to push for greater diversification of export agenda toward China, to develop new productive partnerships beyond traditional sectors and to increase the competitiveness of firms. Meanwhile, China’s diplomatic actions toward Latin America are more than likely to result in forms of change, particularly across my four country cases, and where strategic partnerships are concerned.
eBook
Living Next to the Giant
This book examines how the interaction between political and economic factors under Doi Moi has shaped Vietnam's China policy and bilateral relations since the late 1980s. After providing a historical background, the book examines the conflicting effects that Doi Moi has generated on bilateral relations. It demonstrates that Vietnam's economic considerations following the adoption of Doi Moi contributed decidedly to the Sino-Vietnamese normalization in 1991 as well as the continuous improvements in bilateral ties ever since. At the same time, Vietnam's economic activities in the South China Sea and China's responses have intensified bilateral rivalry and put their ties under considerable strains. The book goes on to argue that Doi Moi has indeed brought Vietnam newfound opportunities to develop a multi-level omni-directional hedging strategy against China. Finally, the book concludes by looking at the prospects of democratization in both countries and assessing the future trajectory of their relations under such circumstances. As the most comprehensive and up-to-date survey of Vietnam's relations with China over the past thirty years, the book is a useful reference source for academics, policymakers, students, and anyone interested in contemporary Vietnam foreign policy in general and Vietnam–China relations in particular.
eBook
Economic crises and unemployment in Russia
This article considers changes in the number of unemployed individuals in conjunction with the dynamics of the production volume in Russia in 1991–2015. An assessment has been given for the quantitative relationship between crisis declines in production and the number of unemployed individuals. Long-term trends determining the dynamics of unemployment under the effect of direct factors of economic growth (labor resources, fixed capital, and scientific and technical progress) have been analyzed.
Journal Article