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"1995-2015"
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Always smile : Carley Allison's secrets for laughing, loving and living
\"Carley Allison was an up-and-coming young figure skater and singer who died tragically at the age of 18 of a cancer so rare there were only seven cases in the world. In this book, you will come to know Carley in her own words and in the words of the people who knew and loved her. Award-winning author Alice Kuipers weaves the memories of Carley's friends, family, and boyfriend with the blog Carley kept throughout her journey, from the moment she was diagnosed until her final months of searching for treatment that would keep the disease at bay. Kuipers also recreates pivotal moments from Carley's point of view, acting as ventriloquist for a voice lost too young. This book is built around the words she lived by, both in sickness and in health. Above all, again and again, she summed up her philosophy in two words: always smile.\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk
We analyze the relationship between asset price bubbles and systemic risk, using bank-level data covering almost 30 years. Banks’ systemic risk already rises during a bubble’s buildup and even more so during its bust. The increase in risk strongly differs across banks and by bubble. It depends on bank characteristics (especially bank size) and bubble characteristics and can become very large: in a median real estate bust, systemic risk increases by almost 70% of the median for banks with unfavorable characteristics. These results emphasize the importance of bank-level factors in the buildup of financial fragility during bubble episodes.
Journal Article
The costs of occupational mobility
We estimate the costs of occupational mobility and quantify the relative importance of differences in task content as a component of total mobility costs. We use a novel approach based on a model of occupational choice that delivers a gravity equation linking worker flows to occupation characteristics and transition costs. Using data from the Current Population Survey and the Dictionary of Occupational Titles we find that task-specific costs account for no more than 15% of the total transition cost across most occupation pairs. Transition costs vary widely across occupations and, while increasing with the dissimilarity in the mix of tasks performed, are mostly accounted for by task-independent occupation-specific factors. The fraction of transition costs that can be attributed to task-related variables appears fairly stable over the 1994–2013 period.
Journal Article
Vote Avoidance and Shareholder Voting in Mergers and Acquisitions
We examine whether, how, and why acquirer shareholder voting matters. We show that acquirers with low institutional ownership, high deal risk, and high agency costs are more likely to bypass shareholder voting. Such acquirers have lower announcement returns and make higher offers than those who do not. To avoid a shareholder vote, acquirers increase equity issuance and cut payouts to raise the portion of cash in mixed-payment deals. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we show a positive effect on acquirer announcement returns concentrated in acquirers with higher institutional ownership. We conclude that shareholder voting mitigates agency problems in corporate acquisitions.
Journal Article
The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption
We seek to identify the causal effect of sentiment innovations on consumption. Using unique Australian consumer sentiment survey data, we show that, immediately after elections with a change of government, supporters of the winning party report substantially more optimistic beliefs about economic conditions than supporters of the losing party. We argue that this variation in beliefs is orthogonal to changes in fundamentals and find robust evidence that the shifts in sentiment affect spending intentions. Furthermore, using geographic variation in sentiment, vote shares, and automobile purchases, we find evidence that stated spending intentions are indicative of actual spending.
Journal Article
The US Gains From Trade
About eight cents out of every dollar spent in the United States is spent on imports. What if, because of a wall or some other extreme policy intervention, imports were to remain on the other side of the US border? How much would US consumers be willing to pay to prevent this hypothetical policy change from taking place? The answer to this question represents the welfare cost from autarky or, equivalently, the welfare gains from trade. In this article, we discuss how to evaluate these gains using estimates of the demand for foreign factor services.
Journal Article
Nonstandard Employment in the Nordics – Toward Precarious Work?
This article examines nonstandard employment and precariousness in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway). Drawing on data from the Labour Force Survey from 1995 to 2015, the article investigates and compares recent developments of nonstandard employment in the countries and analyzes whether fixed-term contracts, temporary agency work, marginal part-time work and solo self-employment have precarious elements (measured as income or job insecurity). We conclude that nonstandard employment has remained rather stable in all four countries over time. However, although nonstandard employment seems to be largely integrated in the Nordic labor markets, it still entails precarious elements in certain countries in particular. Norway and Denmark stand out as having less insecure labor markets, while Finland and Sweden have more precariousness associated with nonstandard employment. We argue that these differences are explained by differences in the institutional contexts in the countries.
Journal Article
Family heterogeneity, human capital investment, and college attainment
From 1995 to 2015 the aggregate US college completion rate increased almost 50 percent, but completion trends differed markedly by family background. We consider whether changing college preparedness contributed to growth in aggregate completion and differences by family background. We first document parallel empirical trends in precollege investments, college preparedness, and completion. We use these moments to discipline a quantitative model of intergenerational human capital investment with heterogeneous families. Within the model, investment trends generate half of the empirical increase in college completion. The model implies that subsidizing precollege investments increases college completion and lifetime earnings more than college tuition subsidies.
Journal Article
Assessing activist fiscal policy in advanced and emerging market economies using real-time data
We examine activist fiscal policy in advanced and emerging economies using an innovative methodology. We contribute to the existing literature on fiscal policy cyclicality by conducting real-time data analysis for a broad set of countries that include 23 advanced and 30 emerging market economies. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study to extend the real-time data analysis to countries other than advanced economies. We also examine the impact of the global financial crisis. Our main findings show that discretionary fiscal policy in advanced economies is planned as countercyclical before the global financial crisis, but its implementation turned procyclical after the crisis. The emerging economies had weakly countercyclical discretionary fiscal policy plans, which enabled them to implement countercyclical fiscal policy after the global financial crisis.
Journal Article