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The ongoing uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean leads to ocean acidification, a process that results in a reduction in pH and in the saturation state of biogenic calcium carbonate minerals aragonite ( Ω arag ) and calcite ( Ω calc ) 1 , 2 . Because of its naturally low Ω arag and Ω calc (refs. 2 , 3 ), the Arctic Ocean is considered the region most susceptible to future acidification and associated ecosystem impacts 4 – 7 . However, the magnitude of projected twenty-first century acidification differs strongly across Earth system models 8 . Here we identify an emergent multi-model relationship between the simulated present-day density of Arctic Ocean surface waters, used as a proxy for Arctic deep-water formation, and projections of the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification. By applying observations of sea surface density, we constrain the end of twenty-first century Arctic Ocean anthropogenic carbon inventory to 9.0 ± 1.6 petagrams of carbon and the basin-averaged Ω arag and Ω calc to 0.76 ± 0.06 and 1.19 ± 0.09, respectively, under the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. Our results indicate greater regional anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification than previously projected 3 , 8 and increase the probability that large parts of the mesopelagic Arctic Ocean will be undersaturated with respect to calcite by the end of the century. This increased rate of Arctic Ocean acidification, combined with rapidly changing physical and biogeochemical Arctic conditions 9 – 11 , is likely to exacerbate the impact of climate change on vulnerable Arctic marine ecosystems. Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.

Stance is a psychological state that encompasses the speaker's beliefs, evaluative abilities, and attitudes. Since the late 1980s, corpus-assisted approaches have been predominantly employed in the field of stance-taking, yet no systematic literature review has been conducted on how corpus linguistics assists stance research. This study reviewed 453 articles published from 2004 to 2023 and revealed key insights into the evolution of corpus linguistics within this interdisciplinary domain. The review examines the evolving role of corpus linguistics in conjunction with other linguistic strands, such as pragmatics, (critical) discourse analysis, systemic-functional linguistics, sociolinguistics, and discursive psychology, to offer a nuanced understanding of stance-taking across diverse genres and contexts. It also identifies a shift from a focus on lexical-grammatical stance markers to a broader exploration of functional categories, syntactic structures, acoustic-phonetic features, and other non-linguistic devices such as multi-modal stance-taking. Additionally, the review highlights a growing emphasis on corpus-driven approaches, which analyze linguistic patterns in a bottom-up manner. It also underscores the increasing application of corpus methods across diverse genres, including academic, political, corporate, and media discourse. Future research should investigate the intricate interplay between stance and other linguistic phenomena, considering social, cultural, and psychological factors. It should also leverage advanced AI technologies with corpus linguistics to gain a comprehensive understanding of stance-taking, with a focus on multi-modal and interactional stances within digital communication contexts. This study consolidates existing knowledge, identifies research gaps, and suggests pathways for further investigation into stance across different communicative settings.

Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multi-model mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4° warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2° warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.

This study investigates whether institutional quality amplifies the emissions-reducing effect of energy efficiency in hydrocarbon-dependent economies. Addressing a gap in the energy–environment literature, it tests how governance conditions shape the effectiveness of technical mitigation strategies. Using panel data from six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries between 2000 and 2023, we estimate a fixed-effects model with interaction terms between energy intensity (as a proxy for efficiency) and institutional quality (proxied by Control of Corruption). The results show that energy efficiency is associated with lower CO[sub.2] emissions, and this relationship is significantly moderated by institutional quality. We also analyze the emissions impact of natural gas consumption and identify a structural shift following the 2014 energy reforms: while gas use was positively associated with emissions before 2014, the post-reform period shows a weaker or reversed effect. Robustness checks using alternative governance indicators—Regulatory Quality and Government Effectiveness—confirm the moderating role of institutions. The study offers new empirical evidence on the energy–institution–environment nexus and introduces a novel interaction-based methodology suited to resource-rich economies undergoing institutional transition.

Colombia is a megadiverse, multiethnic, and multicultural country with a tremendous socio-ecological systems (SESs) diversity, which faces essential challenges arising from human activities, low levels of sustainable economic development, poverty, and social inequality rates, and the persistence of multiple forms of military, political, and social violence. Understanding the resilience of this complex system is both fundamental and challenging due to the contradictory effects of economic development and regional ecosystem degradation. This research proposes the Socio-Ecological Resilience Integrated Index (SERII) to assess historical changes in socio-ecological resilience in Colombia’s departments (political-administrative units) between 1985–2022. The SERII considers the trade-offs between ecosystems, social systems, and production systems, providing a complete perspective of integrated management with a geographic resolution at the level of general political-administrative units. The results reveal a spatial variation in the SERII, with worse conditions in the Caribbean, the Pacific, and the Colombian Amazon (on the country periphery) and better conditions in departments of the country center. From 1985 to 2022, the SERII experienced a decrease (51.5%), driven by ecosystem degradation, increased extractive activities (illegal and illegal), and the persistence of military, political, and social violence. While the limitations of the proposed indicator are described, the SERII effectively replicates the overall resilience of Colombia’s departments to external shocks and allows for suggesting regional management priorities for the targeted promotion of sustainable development.

Taking world society theory as our point of departure, we examine the effect of world culture on contraceptive use rates around the world. World-cultural rhetoric frames contraception as a necessity for economic development, a human rights issue, and a women’s health matter. Using data on contraceptive use among married women for a sample of 159 countries over the period from 1970 to 2012, we find that linkages to all three sets of discourses are associated with increased use of modern contraceptive methods, over and above countries’ sociocultural and economic characteristics. Nevertheless, we also find that world society influences vary across major cultural zones, defined in terms of predominant religions and geographic regions. World cultural effects are strongest in Orthodox Christian, Hindu, non-Western Protestant, and sub-Saharan African countries. There is no effect in Western and East Asian countries, where contraceptive use is comparatively high, or in zones such as non-Western Catholic nations, where the unmet need for contraception is often greatest. Compared to development and women’s rights rhetoric, health-based frames appear to have the broadest and most effective reach across cultural divides. Overall, however, we find that world society processes tend to produce cross-cultural convergence in contraceptive use rates.

The relationship between income and fertility appears to be changing across rich societies at the national and regional levels. However, less is known about how the individual-level relationship between income and fertility has changed over time. To examine how the relationship between income and fertility changed between 2008 and 2022 in the Netherlands, and how this trend differs by gender and parity. Using register data on the full population, I link income quintiles in year t-2 to births in year t. Separate logistic regression models are estimated for each gender and year. Over the 2008-2022 period, income became increasingly positively associated with fertility. Although income effects are stronger for men than for women, the intensifying of the income effect over time is evident for both genders. These results are driven by first births. For higher-order births, income effects are much weaker and did not change over the study period. Earning a high income constitutes an increasingly strong prerequisite for the transition to parenthood in the Netherlands. This likely contributes to the postponement of parenthood and the decline of fertility and suggests that low-income groups may increasingly be unable to fulfill their fertility desires.

(1) Background: Educational systems across the world experienced significant changes during 2020–2022, with potential implications for progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4: Quality Education), which aims to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all across European Union member states. Understanding how educational sustainability performance evolved during the pre-pandemic period (2017–2019) and the pandemic-affected period (2020–2022) is essential for developing effective educational policies. (2) Objective: This quantitative comparative study aimed to (i) assess and rank sustainable education developments across EU-27 countries in two periods, Period 1—the pre-pandemic period (2017–2019)—and Period 2—the pandemic-affected period (2020–2022); (ii) identify performance changes between these periods; and (iii) classify countries into performance groups to guide targeted interventions. (3) Methods: Using data from the Eurostat database, we evaluated six key SDG 4 indicators: low-achieving students in reading, mathematics, and science; participation in early childhood education; early school leavers; tertiary educational attainment; adult participation in learning; and adults with basic digital skills. The Multiobjective Optimization based on Ratio Analysis (MOORA) method was used to rank countries and assess sustainable education development. (4) Results: Sweden maintained the highest educational sustainability performance across both periods, while Romania and Bulgaria consistently ranked lowest. Nine countries improved their rankings during the pandemic-affected period, while others maintained stable positions or experienced declines in their rankings. Adult participation in learning showed the greatest variation among the indicators, with top performers, such as Sweden, scoring 0.445 compared to Romania’s 0.051 in Period 2. The proportion of early school leavers decreased from an EU average of 9.0% in Period 1 to 8.3% in Period 2, indicating a positive trend across the study periods. While differences were observed across countries and periods, these should not be interpreted as causally linked to the pandemic alone (5). Conclusions: The performance of educational sustainability varied across EU member states between the two periods, with some countries demonstrating remarkable resilience or improvement, while others declined. These findings underscore the need for targeted educational policies that address specific sustainability weaknesses in individual countries, particularly those in the warning and danger categories. Sweden’s consistent performance offers valuable lessons for educational sustainability, especially during and after major disruptions.

This discussion explores the (dis)engagement of Jamaican RastafarI from the party political process, using RastafarI elder Mortimo Planno’s notion of “politics without a party” as a strand shaping and tying together the multiple threads of the exploration. The discussion examines how RastafarI has engaged with partisan politics/political parties from Independence (1962) until today. It highlights the differing ways of approaching politics among Rastas, including the minority, who have entered representative politics in a bid to [as yet unsuccessfully] change the tribal and compromised state of Jamaican politics. The decentralized nature of the RastafarI movement allows for diverse expressions of RastafarI political thought and action, but can present challenges for unified political mobilization on a large scale. Nonetheless, with or without direct partisan involvement, RastafarI has adapted and re-presented itself in response to changes in the local and global context, thus becoming a potent political force. So, despite this general lack of engagement with “statical” matters, RastafarI is and continues to be a significant political movement on several fronts, through movements, music, and symbols rather than traditional electoral routes.