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We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the well-known spike and slab Gaussian priors with a distinct feature, that is, the prior variances depend on the sample size through which appropriate shrinkage can be achieved. We show the strong selection consistency of the proposed method in the sense that the posterior probability of the true model converges to one even when the number of covariates grows nearly exponentially with the sample size. This is arguably the strongest selection consistency result that has been available in the Bayesian variable selection literature; yet the proposed method can be carried out through posterior sampling with a simple Gibbs sampler. Furthermore, we argue that the proposed method is asymptotically similar to model selection with the L₀ penalty. We also demonstrate through empirical work the fine performance of the proposed approach relative to some state of the art alternatives.

Inference in spatial and spatio-temporal models can be challenging for a variety of reasons. For example, non-Gaussianity often leads to analytically intractable integrals; we may be in a ‘big’ data setting, whereby the number of observations renders traditional methods too computationally expensive; we may wish to make inferences over spatial supports that are different to those of our measurements; or, we may wish to use a statistical model whose likelihood function is either unavailable or computationally intractable. In this thesis, I develop several techniques that help to alleviate these challenges.

This paper studies convergence behavior of latent mixing measures that arise in finite and infinite mixture models, using transportation distances (i.e., Wasserstein metrics). The relationship between Wasserstein distances on the space of mixing measures and f-divergence functionals such as Hellinger and Kullback-Leibler distances on the space of mixture distributions is investigated in detail using various identifiability conditions. Convergence in Wasserstein metrics for discrete measures implies convergence of individual atoms that provide support for the measures, thereby providing a natural interpretation of convergence of clusters in clustering applications where mixture models are typically employed. Convergence rates of posterior distributions for latent mixing measures are established, for both finite mixtures of multivariate distributions and infinite mixtures based on the Dirichlet process.

During the past decade, shrinkage priors have received much attention in Bayesian analysis of high-dimensional data. This paper establishes the posterior consistency for high-dimensional linear regression with a class of shrinkage priors, which has a heavy and flat tail and allocates a sufficiently large probability mass in a very small neighborhood of zero. While enjoying its efficiency in posterior simulations, the shrinkage prior can lead to a nearly optimal posterior contraction rate and the variable selection consistency as the spike-and-slab prior. Our numerical results show that under the posterior consistency, Bayesian methods can yield much better results in variable selection than the regularization methods such as LASSO and SCAD. This paper also establishes a BvM-type result, which leads to a convenient way of uncertainty quantification for regression coefficient estimates.

We investigate the stability of a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method applied to the problem of sampling from a target distribution on ℝd for large d. It is well known [Bengtsson, Bickel and Li, In Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman, D. Nolan and T. Speed, eds. (2008) 316-334 IMS; see also Pushing the Limits of Contemporary Statistics (2008) 318-329 IMS, Mon. Weather Rev. (2009) 136 (2009) 4629-4640] that using a single importance sampling step, one produces an approximation for the target that deteriorates as the dimension d increases, unless the number of Monte Carlo samples N increases at an exponential rate in d. We show that this degeneracy can be avoided by introducing a sequence of artificial targets, starting from a \"simple\" density and moving to the one of interest, using an SMC method to sample from the sequence; see, for example, Chopin [Biometrika 89 (2002) 539-551]; see also [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 68 (2006) 411-436, Phys. Rev. Lett. 78 (1997) 2690-2693, Stat. Comput. 11 (2001) 125-139]. Using this class of SMC methods with a fixed number of samples, one can produce an approximation for which the effective sample size (ESS) converges to a random variable εN as d → ∞ with 1 < εN < N. The convergence is achieved with a computational cost proportional to N d². If εN « N, we can raise its value by introducing a number of resampling steps, say m (where m is independent of d). In this case, the ESS converges to a random variable ε N,m as d → ∞ and ${\\lim _{m \\to \\infty }}{\\varepsilon _{N,m}} = N$. Also, we show that the Monte Carlo error for estimating a fixed-dimensional marginal expectation is of order $\\frac{1}{{\\sqrt N }}$ uniformly in d. The results imply that, in high dimensions, SMC algorithms can efficiently control the variability of the importance sampling weights and estimate fixed-dimensional marginals at a cost which is less than exponential in d and indicate that resampling leads to a reduction in the Monte Carlo error and increase in the ESS. All of our analysis is made under the assumption that the target density is i.i.d.

Reference analysis produces objective Bayesian inference, in the sense that inferential statements depend only on the assumed model and the available data, and the prior distribution used to make an inference is least informative in a certain information-theoretic sense. Reference priors have been rigorously defined in specific contexts and heuristically defined in general, but a rigorous general definition has been lacking. We produce a rigorous general definition here and then show how an explicit expression for the reference prior can be obtained under very weak regularity conditions. The explicit expression can be used to derive new reference priors both analytically and numerically.

The Koopman operator provides a linear perspective on non-linear dynamics by focusing on the evolution of observables in an invariant subspace. Observables of interest are typically linearly reconstructed from the Koopman eigenfunctions. Despite the broad use of Koopman operators over the past few years, there exist some misconceptions about the applicability of Koopman operators to dynamical systems with more than one disjoint invariant sets (e.g., basins of attractions from isolated fixed points). In this work, we first provide a simple explanation for the mechanism of linear reconstruction-based Koopman operators of nonlinear systems with multiple disjoint invariant sets. Next, we discuss the use of discrete symmetry among such invariant sets to construct Koopman eigenfunctions in a data efficient manner. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the benefits of exploiting symmetry for learning the Koopman operator.

We consider a problem of inferring contact network from nodal states observed during an epidemiological process. In a black-box Bayesian optimisation framework this problem reduces to a discrete likelihood optimisation over the set of possible networks. The cardinality of this set grows combinatorially with the number of network nodes, which makes this optimisation computationally challenging. For each network, its likelihood is the probability for the observed data to appear during the evolution of the epidemiological process on this network. This probability can be very small, particularly if the network is significantly different from the ground truth network, from which the observed data actually appear. A commonly used stochastic simulation algorithm struggles to recover rare events and hence to estimate small probabilities and likelihoods. In this paper we replace the stochastic simulation with solving the chemical master equation for the probabilities of all network states. Since this equation also suffers from the curse of dimensionality, we apply tensor train approximations to overcome it and enable fast and accurate computations. Numerical simulations demonstrate efficient black-box Bayesian inference of the network.

We propose a roughness regularization approach in making nonparametric inference for generalized functional linear models. In a reproducing kernel Hubert space framework, we construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for regression mean, prediction intervals for future response and various statistical procedures for hypothesis testing. In particular, one procedure for testing global behaviors of the slope function is adaptive to the smoothness of the slope function and to the structure of the predictors. As a by-product, a new type of Wilks phenomenon [Ann. Math. Stat. 9 (1938) 60-62; Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 153-193] is discovered when testing the functional linear models. Despite the generality, our inference procedures are easy to implement. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the empirical advantages over the competing methods. A collection of technical tools such as integro-differential equation techniques [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. (1927) 29 755-800; Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. (1928) 30 453-471; Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. (1930) 32 860-868], Stein's method [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 2786-2819] [Stein, Approximate Computation of Expectations (1986) IMS] and functional Bahadur representation [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 2608-2638] are employed in this paper.