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Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) physical geography is often blamed for its poor economic performance. A country's geographical location does, however, not only determine its agricultural conditions or disease environment. It also pins down a country's relative position vis-à-vis other countries, affecting its ease of access to foreign markets. This paper assesses the importance of market access for manufactures in explaining the observed income differences between SSA countries over the period 1993–2009. We construct yearly, theory-based measures of each SSA country's market access using the information contained in bilateral manufacturing trade flows. Using these measures, we find a robust positive effect of market access on economic development that has increased in importance during the last decade. Interestingly, when further unraveling this finding, access to other SSA markets in particular turns out to be important.

Bolivia's informal economic sector is the largest in Latin America and has been attributed to many factors including the burden of regulations, the weakness of public institutions, and the lack of perceived benefits to formality. 'Increasing Formality and Productivity of Bolivian Firms' presents fresh qualitative and quantitative analyses to help understand the reasons why firms are informal and the impact of formalization on their profitability, in order to better inform appropriate policies. A crucial finding of the study is that the impact of tax registration on profitability depends on firm size and the ability to issue tax receipts. The smallest and largest firms have lower profits as a result of tax registration because their cost of formalizing exceeds benefits. The study concludes by recommending policy priorities to increase the benefits of formalization through information, training, access to credit and markets, and business support. Longer-term policy recommendations include simplifying formalization, regulatory, and taxation procedures and reducing their costs, as well as measures to boost the productivity of small and micro firms.

One out of every three dollars invested abroad in 2012 was originated in multinationals from developing countries. This study sheds light on the characteristics, motivations, strategies, and needs of emerging market investors. By including information on investors, potential investors, and non-investors, the study identifies differentiating factors among them that are associated with investment decisions. Results show that emerging market investors are active players in international trade markets; they operate predominantly in manufacturing, and are publicly listed and larger than non-investors. They exhibit a strong regional bias: they invest more heavily in neighbors and in other countries in their own regions. Outward FDI from emerging markets is primarily market-seeking. Expanding regional and host markets emerged as the most important factor influencing the location of investments. However, emerging markets' firms face binding costs of investing in distant, culturally dissimilar markets, resulting, in practice in a trade-off between market size and market familiarity. Transaction costs associated with geographical and cultural differences have a greater impact on services sector firms that exhibit a stronger regional bias. Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) partly offset these costs associated with investing in faraway and/or unfamiliar markets. In addition, international trade agreements increase the perceived attractiveness of a host country to potential investors. Political factors constitute binding constraints that deter emerging markets' firms from investing in developing markets. Yet, investors value political stability and transparency more than corruption control, fair and regular elections, and risk of expropriation in the host country. IPAs play only a marginal role in raising awareness of investment opportunities in developing countries, and may be particularly ineffective in many African countries. Nevertheless, IPAs appear to be a widely used and useful resource for investors once they have made the decision to enter a specific market. IPA services tend to be more valuable for smaller and less productive firms. Overall, the new TNCs from emerging economies do not appear to differ dramatically from their predecessors from developed and developing countries in previous waves of OFDI. Results suggest that to attract FDI from emerging economies, countries need to maintain market-friendly, liberal trade and investment policies. In addition, joining international trade and investment agreements can be benefitial to reduce transaction costs associated with cross border investment. Countries also need to provide a stable and predictable political and institutional environment. Last and not least, it is important to revamp IPAs and increase their effectiveness in raising awareness of investment opportunities and meeting investors' needs.

This paper assesses the effects of reducing tariffs under the Doha Round on market access for developing countries. It shows that for many developing countries, actual preferential access is less generous than it appears because of low product coverage or complex rules of origin. Thus lowering tariffs under the multilateral system is likely to lead to a net increase in market access for many developing countries, with gains in market access offsetting losses from preference erosion. Furthermore, comparing various tariff-cutting proposals, the research shows that the largest gains in market access are generated by higher tariff cuts in agriculture.

While economic growth in developing countries over the last ten years has lifted more people out of poverty than in any previous time, more than one billion people still live in countries affected by violent conflict. Conflict weakens governance, undermines economic development and threatens both national and regional stability. Trade shocks, in particular, can have widely varying impacts on conflict. This report sets out to empirically test these linkages between trade shocks and conflict via cross-country and intra-country analysis. On the basis of the analysis, it offers trade-related policy directions to reduce this risk in fragile economies. The results provide convincing evidence that trade and trade policy have a large impact on the risk and intensity of conflict. This report is composed of three main chapters. Chapter 1 develops a conceptual framework mapping the different channels through which trade may affect conflict and political stability. The framework is based on simple economic theory and the available empirical evidence on the impact of trade related changes on conflict and stability. It then tests this framework empirically through the analysis of cross-country data and through case studies of Nigeria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The hope is that these types of intra-country analyses could be replicated in other countries, since they use data that are available in different countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Chapter 2 uses the same conceptual framework to show how differences in underlying conditions affect the relationship between trade-related changes and conflict. Following a review of the literature on the drivers of conflict, it examines the importance of four groups of grievances: conditions in neighboring countries, factors increasing grievance, government institutions, and policies that affect the transmission of changes in international prices to the domestic market. These relationships are tested using cross-country data and case studies of Nigeria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Finally, chapter 3 uses the existing evidence, as well as evidence generated in this report, to discuss how the policies governing trade can reduce the probability and intensity of conflicts. Two appendixes include detailed information on the modeling framework, the data issues and the estimation results.

Small scale producers in developing countries lack easy access to efficient logistics services. They are faced with long distances from both domestic and international markets. Unless they consolidate their trade volumes they face high costs which diminish their ability to trade. However, the process of consolidation is not without cost nor does it occur on its own accord. As a result, the consolidation is typically handled by intermediaries. Using case studies of sisal and soybean supply chains in Brazil and India respectively, this study explores the role and impact of intermediaries in facilitating trade in lagging regions. The study assesses the horizontal relationships between the small scale producers in thin markets and the vertical connections between different tiers of the same supply chain. The study analyzes the traditional approach to linking producers namely through cooperatives and itinerant traders and the relatively newer innovations using ICT. The study finds that farmers linked through the different mechanisms are more integrated to international supply chains or are able to better manage supply chains longer than would otherwise be the case. Intermediaries play several roles including providing transport services and facilitating market exchanges, payments, risk sharing and quality improvements. Generally, information technology driven innovations make it easier to integrate adjacent steps in the value chain. This report on logistics performance at the sub-national level is an on-going endeavour. Similar analysis is being carried out in some countries in Africa to identify the evolving role of intermediaries in low income regions. The results will be developed into a major publication on this topic, with recommendations on how development agencies, civil society and the private sector can improve the design of strategies to reduce logistics costs in low income areas.

New horizons are opening for Africa, with a growing number of Chinese andIndian businesses fostering its integration into advanced markets. However,significant imbalances will have to be addressed on both sides of the equation to support long-term growth.

Foreign direct investment and private capital flows are highly concentrated geographically, with almost half of them reaching five top destinations. These flows tend to evade many high-risk countries. Regulatory and contractual risks, particularly in infrastructure, have inhibited investments in many parts of the developing world. A core objective of the World Bank Group (WBG) has been to support the flow of private investment for development; guarantees and insurance have been among the instruments that the WBG has used to pursue this objective. This study examines three main questions: • Should the WBG be in the guarantee business? • Have guarantee instruments in the three WBG institutions been used to their potential as reflected in WBG expectations and perceived demand? • Is the WBG appropriately organized to deliver its range of guarantee products in an effective and efficient manner?