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"AGING POPULATIONS"
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Population aging : is Latin America ready?
2011,2010
The past half-century has seen enormous changes in the demographic makeup of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In the 1950s, LAC had a small population of about 160 million people, less than today's population of Brazil. Two-thirds of Latin Americans lived in rural areas. Families were large and women had one of the highest fertility rates in the world, low levels of education, and few opportunities for work outside the household. Investments in health and education reached only a small fraction of the children, many of whom died before reaching age five. Since then, the size of the LAC population has tripled and the mostly rural population has been transformed into a largely urban population. There have been steep reductions in child mortality, and investments in health and education have increased, today reaching a majority of children. Fertility has been more than halved and the opportunities for women in education and for work outside the household have improved significantly. Life expectancy has grown by 22 years. Less obvious to the casual observer, but of significance for policy makers, a population with a large fraction of dependent children has evolved into a population with fewer dependents and a very large proportion of working-age adults. This overview seeks to introduce the reader to three groups of issues related to population aging in LAC. First is a group of issues related to the support of the aging and poverty in the life cycle. Second is the question of the health transition. Third is an understanding of the fiscal pressures that are likely to accompany population aging and to disentangle the role of demography from the role of policy in that process.
Exploring the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution of population aging and social-economic indicators in China
2021
Background
China is one of the world’s fastest-aging countries. Population aging and social-economic development show close relations. This study aims to illustrate the spatial-temporal distribution and movement of gravity centers of population aging and social-economic factors and thier spatial interaction across the provinces in China.
Methods
Factors of elderly population rate (EPR), elderly dependency ratio (EDR), per capita gross regional product (GRP
pc
), and urban population rate (UPR) were collected. Distribution patterns were detected by using global spatial autocorrelation, Kernel density estimation, and coefficient of variation. Further, Arc GIS software was used to find the gravity centers and their movement trends yearly from 2002 to 2018. The spatial interaction between the variables was investigated based on bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis.
Results
The results showed a larger variety of global spatial autocorrelation indexed by Moran’s
I
and stable trends of dispersion degree without obvious convergence in EPR and EDR. Furthermore, the gravity centers of the proportion of EPR and EDR moved northeastward. In contrast, the economic and urbanization factors showed a southwestward movement, which exhibited an reverse trend compared to population aging indicators. Moreover, the movement rates of EPR and EDR (15.12 and 18.75 km/year, respectively) were higher than that of GRP
pc
(13.79 km/year) and UPR (6.89 km/year) annually during the study period. Further, the bivariate spatial autocorrelation variation is in line with the movement trends of gravity centers which showed a polarization trend of population aging and social-economic factors that the difference between southwest and northeast directions and exhibited a tendency to expand in China.
Conclusions
In sum, our findings revealed the difference in spatio-temporal distribution and variation between population aging and social-economic factors in China. It further indicates that the opposite movements of gravity centers and the change of the BiLISA in space which may result in the increase of the economic burden of the elderly care in northern China. Hence, future development policy should focus on the social-economic growth and distribution of old-aged supporting resources, especially in northern China.
Journal Article
Trends, Determinants and the Implications of Population Aging in Iran
2020
Fertility and mortality decline are major drivers of Iran’s population aging. A rapid and sharp fall in fertility rates over the past three decades as well as a substantial rise in life expectancy are causing rapid aging of Iran’s population. The present paper uses the 2015 United Nations Population Division data to discuss the trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. According to the medium fertility variant, people age 60 and older will represent 31% (almost 29 million people) of Iran’s population by 2050. The population age 65 and older is projected to be 22% (more than 20 million) and that of aged 80 and older 3.8% (around 3.5 million) in 2050, that are almost four-times higher than the corresponding figures in 2015. Data on the speed of population aging show that Iran is the second fastest aging country in the world in terms of the percentage point increase in the population age 60 and over between 2015 and 2050; Iran is second only to South Korea, by less than .01%. The rapid population aging of Iran has significant implications for all societal institutions and decision makers that have to be addressed by the Iranian society. Gender-related issues and socio-economic security in old age are two key issues resulting from such a fast population aging. As with many rapidly aging populations, Iran needs a strategy for social and economic supports for an aging population that will not promote views of aging people as a burden.
Journal Article
Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017
2019
Background
Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide.
Methods
All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions.
Results
Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing—Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK—whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113–3.214), 3.071 (3.018–3.122), 2.951 (2.903–3.001), 2.932 (2.880–2.984) and 2.917 (2.869–2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased.
Conclusions
The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas.
Journal Article
Continued use intention of wearable health technologies among the elderly: an enablers and inhibitors perspective
2021
PurposeWearable health technologies (WHTs) show promise in improving the health and well-being of the aging population because they promote healthy lifestyles. They can be used to collect health information from users and encourage them to be physically active. Despite potential benefits of WHTs, recent studies have shown that older people have low continued use intention toward WHTs. Previous work on this topic is disjointed, and new theoretical viewpoints are required.Design/methodology/approachThe authors propose an enablers and inhibitors perspective to model factors influencing continued use intention of WHTs among the elderly. To test the model, we collected data from Chinese elderly (N = 295) who had prior experience using WHTs.FindingsThe study results show that social value is the strongest enabler of continued WHT use, and emotional and epistemic values and device quality also increase use continuance. Inertia and technology anxiety were identified as significant inhibitors. A post hoc importance performance map analysis revealed that while emotional value is a highly significant predictor of continued WHT use, existing WHTs do not stimulate such value in our sample.Research limitations/implicationsThe research findings illustrate the importance of incorporating user resistance in technology acceptance studies in general and WHT usage studies in particular. This study contributes by providing an integrative model of technology continued use intention for the elderly along with practical implications for policymakers.Originality/valueA limited number of prior studies have taken both enablers and inhibitors into account when explaining continued WHT use intention among the elderly. This paper fills this research gap and contributes to the WHT literature by considering both enablers and inhibitors in the same model. Moreover, this study contributes to the ongoing research on WHT, and more broadly, gerontechnology use among the elderly.
Journal Article
Housing abandonment in shrinking cities of East Asia
2020
Despite growing signs of urban shrinkage in countries such as Korea, Japan and China, few studies have examined the generalisable pattern of urban shrinkage and its relationship to the characteristics of housing abandonment in the East Asian context. This study explores five major paths that may explain the emergence of vacant houses in declining inner-city areas, based on empirical observations in the city of Incheon, South Korea. The paths are: (1) strong government-led new built-up area development plans (pull factor for population movement); (2) delay and cancellation of indiscriminate redevelopment projects (push factor for population movement); (3) initial poor development and concentration of substandard houses; (4) aging of the elderly population; and (5) the outflow of infrastructure and services. These paths, also found in Japan or China, are expected to be combined in a local context, leading to more serious housing abandonment. This study suggests that it is important to take appropriate countermeasures based on the identification of the paths causing vacant houses.
尽管在韩国、日本和中国等国家,城市收缩的迹象越来越明显,但很少有研宄考察城市收 缩的普遍模式及其与东亚地区弃房特征的关系。本研宄基于在韩国仁川市的经验观察,探 索了五条主要路径,这五条路径可以解释衰退的市中心地区空置房屋的出现。这五条途径 是:(I)强有力的政府主导的新建成区发展计划(人口流动的拉动因素);(2)拖延和取消 无差别再开发项目(人口流动的推动因素);(3)初始开发不良,不合格房屋集中;(4)老 年人口老龄化;(5)基础设施和服务外流。这些途径在日本或中国也可以找到,预计将与 当地情况结合导致更严重的房屋遗弃。本研宄表明,在确定空置房屋产生路径的基础上采 取适当的对策十分重要。
Journal Article
Implications of population ageing for economic growth
2010
The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during the period 2005 - 50. Population ageing will tend to lower both labour-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest - but not catastrophic - declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioural responses (including greater female labour-force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labour-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults towards the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries.\" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Querschnitt; prognostisch; Evaluation; anwendungsorientiert. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1950 bis 2050.
Journal Article
The relationship between elder care-giving and labour force participation in the context of policies addressing population ageing: a review of empirical studies published between 2006 and 2016
2019
This paper systematically reviews empirical research published between 2006 and 2016 on the relationship between informal care-giving to elders and labour force participation (LFP). It does so in the context of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development policy responses to population ageing. In this context, conclusions regarding the LFP and care-giving relationship should at least be applicable to the sub-population of working-aged individuals who are most likely to provide informal elder care. Currently, these are women in mid-life and the recipients of their care are mostly extra-residential parents. The review's key conclusion is that mid-life women care-givers of elderly parents are significantly likely to reduce their working hours and also to work fewer hours relative to their non-care-giving counterparts. In drawing this conclusion, the review shows that studies finding only modest care-giving effects on LFP either do not adequately control for care-giving intensity or their conclusions apply to sub-populations less likely to be affected by policies addressing population ageing.
Journal Article
New Directions in the Sociology of Aging
by
Committee on Population
,
Plewes, Thomas J.
,
Panel on New Directions in Social Demography, Social Epidemiology, and the Sociology of Aging
in
Economic aspects
,
Health aspects
,
Population aging
2013,2014
The aging of the population of the United States is occurring at a time of major economic and social changes. These economic changes include consideration of increases in the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare and possible changes in benefit levels. Furthermore, changes in the social context in which older individuals and families function may well affect the nature of key social relationships and institutions that define the environment for older persons. Sociology offers a knowledge base, a number of useful analytic approaches and tools, and unique theoretical perspectives that can facilitate understanding of these demographic, economic, and social changes and, to the extent possible, their causes, consequences and implications.
New Directions in the Sociology of Aging evaluates the recent contributions of social demography, social epidemiology and sociology to the study of aging and identifies promising new research directions in these sub-fields. Included in this study are nine papers prepared by experts in sociology, demography, social genomics, public health, and other fields, that highlight the broad array of tools and perspectives that can provide the basis for further advancing the understanding of aging processes in ways that can inform policy. This report discusses the role of sociology in what is a wide-ranging and diverse field of study; a proposed three-dimensional conceptual model for studying social processes in aging over the life cycle; a review of existing databases, data needs and opportunities, primarily in the area of measurement of interhousehold and intergenerational transmission of resources, biomarkers and biosocial interactions; and a summary of roadblocks and bridges to transdisciplinary research that will affect the future directions of the field of sociology of aging.
Living Arrangement and Life Satisfaction of the Elderly in South Korea
2022
With a rapid aging population in South Korea, the elderly living alone has received particular attention from researchers and stakeholders. Although previous research has found that living alone negatively affects life satisfaction of the elderly, much remains unclear about how life satisfaction of the elderly changes over time as their living arrangement change. To advance knowledge on life satisfaction of the elderly, using the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging we tested the association between life satisfaction (overall life, health, and financial) of the elderly and their living arrangement. Our longitudinal research found that the elderly living with family had significantly higher life satisfaction compared to those living alone between 2006 and 2016. In addition, individuals who had a superior economic profile and maintained physical activity and social relations showed higher life satisfaction than their counterparts. Our findings suggest that to improve the life satisfaction of the elderly living alone, both material and psychological support programs are needed. Future research is needed to account for the multi-faceted nature of life satisfaction.
Journal Article